Is Arbeloa the ‘lucky general’ Madrid need to right their season?

Exactly 236 days ago, Álvaro Arbeloa was coach of Real Madrid’s third team, who’d just lost in the U19 Cup semifinal to Valencia and tied in the league with Atlético Madrid on 75 points. Not necessarily rocket-fuel stuff to propel a man to the Bernabéu hot seat in charge of Vinícius Júnior, Kylian Mbappé and Jude Bellingham, right?

Apart from a couple of dustups on the touchline with Atlético’s youth coach, World Cup-winning Spain teammate Fernando Torres, Arbeloa was largely a forgotten man, hidden from media scrutiny and not quoted, in anyone’s wildest dreams, as potentially the next coach of Los Blancos‘ senior team. Then, that same day, club legend Raúl González quit as coach of Real Madrid’s B team and Arbeloa felt club president Florentino Pérez’s tap on the shoulder. One step up the ladder.

Four defeats in his first five matches in charge of Real Madrid Castilla, then a 4-1 thrashing by tiny Basque club Arenas on Jan. 10 to set himself up for a night on the sofa watching the Clásico Supercopa final. Some might speculate that this ultra-Madridista would have been wearing Madrid pajamas, scarf, his strip from the 2014 UEFA Champions League-winning season and even a pair of old boots — but I couldn’t possibly comment.

We all know what happened next: Xabi Alonso was dismissed from his position in charge of the first team, replaced by Arbeloa.

After an absolutely tumultuous few days in the most coveted coaching position anywhere in the world of football, Arbeloa, whose head must be reeling, sits only a point off the top of the league, can pretty much seal a top-eight slot in the Champions League by propelling his team to victory against AS Monaco on Tuesday, and then turn to his detractors and say, “Crisis? What crisis?”

It’s generally held that it was the mighty French emperor Napoleon Bonaparte who commented, cynically, “I’d rather have lucky generals than good ones.” Speaking of emperors, perhaps that’s a thought running through Pérez’s mind right now as the knife-edge situation at Real Madrid hinges both upon whether Arbeloa, promoted above his readiness, can produce the goods and whether, or not, he’s a lucky guy.

For example: Arbeloa’s tenure began with a Copa del Rey defeat of monstrously embarrassing proportions, against relegation-threatened second-division Albacete. There’s absolutely no way of painting the performance positively, nor, by any possible stretch of the imagination should anyone suggest that there was deliberate intention in Los Blancos‘ abrupt exit from a competition that, in winning, guarantees a path straight into next season’s lucrative Supercopa.

Nor did Arbeloa’s defiant words, which he repeated post-defeat at Albacete and before Saturday’s LaLiga match, that “I wouldn’t change any of my decisions” go down well. They were tagged as obstinate, lacking in awareness, rather than brave or “sticking to principles.” Such is the nature of sports-media patience and understanding if there’s a whiff of blood in the water.

But, and mark my words here, not being in the Copa could, without any doubt, and although unwanted, become a huge bonus for this scarred, under-siege and wobbling Real Madrid setup.

Arbeloa, not without criticism from the watching hawks in the media and fanbase, has reinstated drill-sergeant fitness coach Antonio Pintus. Talented though the Italian most certainly is, he has earned a reputation for working players brutally hard.

We live in a time when finessing footballers to fitness, rather than subjecting them to Marine Corps physical extremes, is the new, essential norm. Pintus, in metaphorical terms, will be a “kill or cure” remedy for what is a huge lack of petrol in the engine of Arbeloa’s squad.

His key players have had two abominably short preseasons (you couldn’t even call them training camps, more like training glimpses), and Madrid genuinely haven’t given a 98-minute (90 plus added time) dominant display all season where they boss a game and don’t dip — mentally and physically — but is the way to sort that by running their legs off in January? You’d certainly have thought not.

Well, step forward, Albacete.

Was it good general-ship by Arbeloa to leave behind players such as Mbappé, Bellingham, Thibaut Courtois and Aurélien Tchouaméni for a debut match against hungry, nothing-to-lose minnows who might bite like piranhas? No. But …

Barcelona threw everything at their cup tie, went through and then flopped in LaLiga on Sunday. Madrid found extra power and goals in the second half against Levante and closed the gap at the top from four points to one.

Moreover, Arbeloa’s playing group now has more time to train, more time with Pintus, more time to recuperate, and an avenue for the demanding Italian to … demand more from guys who might just get the physical and mental boost necessary to better prepare them for bigger trophy shots toward the end of the season.

If, and this is a very big if, Madrid win the title or somehow lift yet another Champions League in Budapest, boasting renewed stamina, sharpness and carrying Pintus around the field of victory in gratitude then you don’t need me to tell you that nobody will be ranting on about defeat at Albacete. I think the Champions League scenario, in particular, is a little unlikely, but watch this space.

Not good general-ship, but maybe lucky? Elimination has offered up opportunities.

But there’s obviously a strong counter case. The monstrous whistling, jeering and vocal protests aimed at certain players, and the haughty president, before and during Madrid’s 2-0 win over Levante was as startling, as loud, as angry and as flagrant as I can ever remember at the Bernabéu stadium in nearly 24 years working in Spain.

Pérez — indeed, all billionaires who’re used to winning in life — takes badly to any kind of reverse, however small, and public humiliation like that can spark deep and dangerous rage.

Again, what good luck for Arbeloa that the team that looked like at least a match for Madrid in the first half is one that is on its second coach of the season, that had sparse resources and that, as soon as his players upped the tempo, was overwhelmed. Had the fixture calendar thrown up a different test — away to a tough rival, at home to a high-energy, fast counterattack team — then who knows? But Arbeloa will say, “Who cares? Didn’t happen.”

Then, it must be noted, Arbeloa did a fantastic job of adopting the common parlance of politicians and high-powered press officers all over the modern world’s global hotspots. Asked about the deafening booing and whistling — quite evidently coming from Real Madrid supporters who’d either paid a pretty penny to attend on Saturday or who were paid-up season-ticketed members of the club — he said that anyone who wanted to vent against Pérez not only didn’t “love Real Madrid” but was part of a campaign. And he knew who was orchestrating it.

Orwellian nonsense that played perfectly to his employer’s sensibilities.

A bit more luck this week? Potentially, yes.

Monaco, themselves, are on their second coach of the season, lost at home in their preparatory Ligue 1 match, have suffered horrible injuries to a series of key players and, frankly, look like the perfect opponent for a lucky general to step up to life in the Champions League. The Monegasques are to be respected, but that sound you hear might be the sound of tumbrils clicking into place for Arbeloa: the merest hint that, although his and Madrid’s situation remains hugely in the balance, with the newbie coach under intense (which is not to say aggressive) examination from the Madrid media, Arbeloa might prove to be a very handy lucky general.

We shall see.