Inside Pierre Poilievre’s Trump-induced strategy shift

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OTTAWA— “Canada First” is Pierre Poilievre’s new pitch to Canadians. But it also represents the firsts the Conservative leader himself has been navigating in the past few weeks.

It’s the first time as leader that he has faced off against the Liberals without Prime Minister Justin Trudeau planning to run in the next election.

And U.S. President Donald Trump has dealt Poilievre another challenging first: Find a way to talk about affordability, an issue Poilievre has owned, without focusing it all on a “carbon tax election,” given the threat of a trade war with the U.S. seems to be overwhelming Canadians’ other economic concerns right now.

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Something else new for Poilievre is that Liberals’ unpopularity seems to have bottomed out and, with Trudeau leaving, their support is creeping up in the polls after more than a year-and-a-half of consistently slipping further behind the Conservatives.

But even though their world has been shaken, Conservatives are not hitting the panic button. At least not yet.

A Conservative MP, who was granted anonymity in order to speak freely, acknowledged what most Conservatives think: that they would definitely have preferred facing off against Trudeau in the upcoming election, given the prime minister’s deep unpopularity.

Poilievre will be unveiling what he believes to be the message and the tone Canadians want to hear at a Canada First rally on Saturday, staged to coincide with the previously unloved Flag Day, in the same downtown Ottawa convention centre where his leadership of the party began more than two years ago.

Leading up to the branding relaunch, National Post spoke with 17 Conservative insiders, veteran strategists, organizers, MPs and grassroots members to understand the challenges Poilievre faces and some of the party’s thinking in reorienting his pitch.

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The main thing they said: it all starts with Trump.

Shortly after Trump’s victory in November, Poilievre made it clear he wasn’t going to be part of Trudeau’s so-called Team Canada approach against the president’s growing threats of tariffs and taking over Canada. While trying to steer clear of comments that could inflame relations with an unpredictable American leader, Poilievre kept the pressure on Trudeau, accusing him of sending jobs south of the border and criticizing his handling of Trump’s first term in office.

But then Trudeau announced on Jan. 6 he was resigning and Trump was sworn in on Jan. 20. After that, Conservative thinking changed.

“It’s just frustrating, Trump has consumed all oxygen, and Canadians are feeding it by panicking,” said another Conservative MP, who was also granted anonymity.

“It’s all people are talking about.”

As Trump’s threat to hit all Canadian goods with 25-per-cent tariffs hovers like a storm cloud over the country, Poilievre tried in press conferences defending his call for an “axe the tax election,” despite everything else that was unfolding. “Look, I’m not prime minister,” he said when asked about making inroads with U.S. lawmakers.

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Inside the party, however, the debate was whether it was the right approach, and whether he needed to start facing the American issue head on. Especially as all the Liberal leadership contenders seemed to be signalling they weren’t interested in defending Trudeau’s consumer carbon tax.

“Pierre is normally ahead of the curve to identify issues that Canadians care about and leads on them. But I think on the flip side, he never wants to go off message. He very strongly believes in repetition,” one insider said.

The situation presented a challenge for Poilievre, who after more than a year dominating the political agenda in Ottawa, was now facing pressure to shift his message.

“I think Poilievre was too slow, he’s catching on now, but he was too slow,” said Peter Coleman, a longtime Conservative and president of the National Citizens Coalition, a grassroots, right-leaning group.

One insider forcefully declared that the carbon-tax election message was “dead.” Others said the party shouldn’t rush its response in the midst of a volatile situation.

Some also made the point that hindsight is always 20/20 and that Poilievre was faced with a “lose-lose” situation.

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By early February, the message had sunk it. Poilievre needed to appear more serious about the gravity of the trade threats. He did not criticize Trudeau’s announcement on retaliatory tariffs. At the same time, he swapped out his more casual look for a suit. And signs on his press conference podiums were changed from “Axe the Tax” to “Canada First.”

The party also announced the Canada First rally to be staged on the 60th anniversary of the Canadian flag. Poilievre’s office instructed MPs and their families to attend, and automated calls were sent out to ensure a big turnout.

Supporters have been encouraged to wear red and white, with the playlist expected to be all-Canadian. While Conservatives still believe the top issues for voters are cost of living and crime, they see a rising sense of national pride, which Poilievre wants to capture.

Allie Blades, a strategist who worked on Poilievre’s 2022 leadership campaign in B.C., said the next election will be about the type of leader Canadians want as prime minister.

“We won’t necessarily know what our biggest threat will be on the day that we go to the polls. But what I think Canadians will be looking towards is the type of leader that’s going to take us through this next big fight.”

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Although Poilievre is known for his rallies, his speech Saturday is expected to strike a serious tone and tease out additional policy. He’s planning to write it himself.

But don’t expect him to do away with his existing slogans. Instead, he will be adapting them.

Instead of a “common sense plan to axe the tax,” it will be a “common sense plan to axe the tax that puts Canadians first.”

No longer will be it Poilievre’s plan to “stop the crime.” He will now be saying that his plan to “stop the crime puts Canadians first.”

He is also expected to repeat his previously announced plan to handle the U.S., including by calling for retaliatory tariffs and using the revenues to help workers.

The message the Conservatives want Canadians to hear: “Pierre Poilievre has always put Canada and Canadians first.”

Ginny Roth, who served as Poilievre’s communications director during his leadership bid, said a rally is a way to energize supporters and volunteers as expectations rise for a spring election.

This one is also a chance to show Canadians it is the Conservatives who have been “the patriots all along.”

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“It’s been, I think, grating for a lot of Conservatives to hear some of the progressive (Liberal and NDP) leaders who were so dismissive of patriotism, so dismissive of Canadian history … to be newfound kind of vacant patriots” in the face of the Trump threats, she said.

In the lead up to Saturday, Poilievre has released promises from tearing down interprovincial trade barriers and stiffening the sentences for fentanyl traffickers to boosting border security and building an Arctic military base to be financed by dramatic cuts to foreign aid. Border security, fentanyl smuggling and Canada’s lagging defence priorities have been a complaint of Trump’s of course.

While Conservatives applaud Poilievre’s proposals, Philippe Fournier of polling aggregator 338Canada.com questions the wisdom of Poilievre’s suggestion to cut aid, given Trump just made deep cuts to U.S. aid. That invites a comparison to Trump, when Canadians want someone to fight him.

Critics also question the phrase Canada First, which sounds a lot like Trump’s America First policy.

Poilievre is a fan of former prime minister Wilfrid Laurier, whom he often cites. The phrase originated from a Laurier quotation: “Let your motto be: Canada first, Canada last, Canada always.”

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Conservatives also know they need to be careful not to suggest Trump is right when it comes to blaming Canada’s border security for the amount of illegal immigration and fentanyl in the U.S, all the while still promising to tackle these issues.

Poilievre is also trying to make the point that the Liberals bear responsibility for the country’s vulnerable economic position, which is now threatened by Trump, as a way to steer the message back to the cost of living, Poilievre’s positional strong suit.

“We need to keep reminding people this is about affordability,” said one Conservative MP.

“Axing the tax, axing a whole bunch of taxes, the capital gains tax. I still think taxes, pocketbook issues, affordability are going to feature prominently.”

Fournier said it is smart for Conservatives to remain focused on affordability, but said it won’t go over well with voters if “they sound like Trump” and are seen to be criticizing the Canadian government as it tries to fight the president’s threats.

Because Conservatives see the carbon tax as a symbol for larger cost-of-living issues, Poilievre isn’t expected to stop talking about it, especially when it’s proved so effective. Bailing on a key message would also be out of character for a Conservative leader who defines himself by his authenticity.

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And on axing the carbon tax, Poilievre has another claim to fame. He was there first.

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