It’s said that politics is as unforgiving as a blood sport — one move can make or break a career. For outgoing NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, we can now pinpoint the exact moment that sealed his fate: when, in December, he said he wouldn’t play “games” with the Conservatives.
Singh was speaking about the third non-confidence motion the Conservatives had introduced to try to bring down the deeply unpopular government of Liberal prime minister Justin Trudeau. Despite
ending
his party’s confidence-and-supply agreement with the Liberals in September, Singh
accused the Tories
of “playing games” and pledged to continue propping up the government. As it turns out, Singh might not have been playing the game, but that doesn’t mean the game wasn’t being played.
While the government had survived confidence motions on
Sept. 25
and
Oct. 1
, the
Dec. 9 vote
was different because the Bloc Québécois voted in favour of it, after Trudeau failed to acquiesce to
an ultimatum
issued by the party. Had the Bloc and NDP voted for the motion, the government would have fallen and we would likely be in a much different situation today.
At the time, Singh took a lot of flack,
especially
from
conservatives
, for continuing to prop up a government whose policies he clearly didn’t support. But from Singh’s perspective, the decision made perfect sense. After all, the NDP has never had as much influence over government policy as it did while the
confidence-and-supply deal
was in place between March 2022 and September 2024.
Singh knew that when an election was eventually called, he would be able to go to his voters and say that the NDP finally achieved real-world results on issues like pharmacare and socialized dental care. But he also knew that if Canadians went to the polls right away, the Conservatives, who
were then leading
both the Liberals and New Democrats by more than 20 points, would likely have formed government.
If that had happened, Singh would have lost all his power. Even if the Conservatives had been held to a minority, it’s unlikely that the NDP wouldn’t have had much sway over the government, as there are few issues that free-market Tories and socialist Dippers agree on. As Singh
told the media
at the time, he was worried that the Conservatives would cut the very programs he had fought so hard to get the Liberals to enact.
From an ideological perspective, Singh’s calculus thus made perfect sense. And perhaps, despite announcing his resignation on election night, the NDP leader will be able to sleep soundly believing he will someday be remembered as the Tommy Douglas of tooth decay.
But, for better or worse, politics is about more than just policy. It’s about power. Which is why the most successful politicians are quick to punt ideology to the sidelines when it suits their political interests. Singh put ideology over party and it cost New Democrats dearly.
The day after the Liberals survived the third confidence motion of the fall sitting,
an Ipsos poll
showed the Conservatives way ahead of the pack with 44 per cent support, compared to 21 per cent apiece for the Liberals and NDP. If the government had fallen, Trudeau wouldn’t have had time to resign and find a new party leader before the election, meaning the NDP would have had a real chance of forming the official Opposition for only the second time
in history
.
This would have helped sustain the NDP brand and extended Singh’s political career. Instead, Singh waited out the clock and allowed the Liberals to find their next messiah. Ultimately, Singh’s plan to run on the concessions he received from the minority Liberal government backfired when left-wing voters finally realized that Canadian elections are always a binary choice between the two parties that actually have a shot of forming government.
And so it was that Monday’s election saw the New Democrats
lose 18 seats
, including Singh’s own seat in Burnaby Central. Singh’s signature policy wins may live to see another day, but his party is now a shell of its former self, having been reduced to seven seats, from a high of 103 in 2011 under Jack Layton. Rebuilding the party will be an uphill battle.
This was a historic election for this country because it will likely mark a turning point in Canada-U.S. relations and, with a little luck, in how serious Canada takes its own defence and economic prosperity. But this may also be the era that historians look back on as the period in which the NDP’s power finally crested, before the Orange Wave crashed ashore, turning the New Democratic Party back into what it was always meant to be: a left-wing protest party with no hope of gaining any real power.
National Post
jkline@postmedia.com
