TOKYO – Japan should grow its security cooperation with the so-called Global South, experts said, after a Japanese Defence Ministry think-tank report observed that Chinese outreach to developing nations has become increasingly suffused with a military edge.
The yearly China Security Report 2025, which was released on Dec 17 by the National Institute for Defence Studies (NIDS), was themed The Rising Global South And China.
Its four authors, led by NIDS senior research fellow Masaaki Yatsuzuka, noted how Beijing’s approach to the Global South is evolving beyond infrastructure-related aid to “encroach into the realm of missiles, drones and other key weapons of modern warfare” such as surveillance systems.
In response to the report, Dr Satoru Nagao, a Tokyo-based non-resident fellow at the Hudson Institute think-tank, observed that Japan has long taken a non-military approach to aid, although this is changing.
“Japan’s role in supporting Western diplomacy has until very recently been non-military. While Japan has a will to expand its military role further, its movement is still very slow,” he told The Straits Times.
For instance, Japan had in April 2023 begun a new “overseas security assistance” framework – a counterpoint to the traditional “overseas development assistance”. Seven countries, including the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia, have been chosen so far to receive surveillance systems, radars and other non-lethal military equipment.
Japan, which previously banned defence exports, now allows limited arms exports, and is eyeing transfers to South-east Asia, ST has reported.
There are reportedly plans to rope in Saudi Arabia for a trilateral project between Japan, Britain and Italy to build a next-generation fighter jet which, Dr Nagao said, will cement Tokyo’s interests in the Middle East.
Such steps will enable Japan to counter Chinese efforts in weaponising its diplomatic outreach and development assistance to grow its voice and influence, which the NIDS report argues has clear ramifications for East Asian security.
Countries in the Global South farther away from Asia are more likely to support China, said the report. This has led many countries in the Middle East and Africa to reject the International Court of Justice’s 2016 arbitration tribunal ruling in favour of the Philippines over competing Sino-Philippines claims in the South China Sea.
Many countries in the Global South, which generally refers to developing countries, have hesitated to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and there is now the concern that China’s sway over these countries could allow it to garner tacit support in large numbers for a bloody conflict over Taiwan.
“The Global South’s growing support for China’s rhetoric and actions could further encourage China’s attempts to change the status quo and destabilise the regional situation,” the report said.
It said countries like Japan that support a free and open Indo-Pacific should “work to enhance public diplomacy while building stronger ties with the Global South”, with an eye on fostering long-term partnerships based on trust.
Experts told ST that Japan can play a balancing role as the only Asian country in the Group of Seven bloc of advanced economies.
Dr Takeshi Sato-Daimon, an expert in aid diplomacy and international relations at Waseda University, told ST that many countries in the West tend to take a one-size-fits-all approach by imposing democratic values, such as transparency and free and fair elections, on aid-recipient countries.
“Western aid has left many developing countries with strong anti-West, anti-US sentiments because Western aid comes attached with values,” he said.
“Chinese aid simply focuses on the projects rather than imposing values,” he added, noting that China’s approach of non-interference in domestic politics sets it apart.
While Japanese aid is likewise driven by projects rather than values, Dr Sato-Daimon noted that its declining economic might has made it less able to compete against China.
The NIDS report stressed that many countries in the Global South are “development-oriented and prioritise economic development to alleviate domestic poverty”, and as such will not be forced to take sides.
There was “no evidence” that China is engaging in so-called “debt trap diplomacy” with the Global South countries by extending loans to increase its political leverage, it noted.
Still, it noted that China’s military engagement with the Global South nations has clearly expanded under President Xi Jinping, pointing to Beijing setting up its first overseas military base in Djibouti, in Africa, in 2017.
Beijing is also increasing military exchanges with Middle Eastern and African countries, and, according to unconfirmed reports, building military bases in the United Arab Emirates and Oman, which signal a decline in US prestige in the region.
If China succeeds in building bases in the Middle East, the NIDS report said, it would “mark a new stage in China’s presence in the Middle East and is likely to further accelerate the competition between China and the US in the region”.
Yet NIDS pointed out that China was not building a network of security allies across the world. Instead, the starting point for all its global outreach is, first and foremost, to protect its own economic interests.
“Although China has signed various partnership agreements with a number of Global South countries, it has not concluded security agreements that would obligate it to defend those countries,” the report said.
“It would be unlikely that China would become actively involved in shaping security and order in other regions,” it added. “It is hard to imagine China providing guarantees to the regimes of Global South countries or directly intervening militarily in conflicts in other regions.”
Dr Nagao said: “China is not creating alliances on the world stage, North Korea being its only treaty ally. The US has many allies, and this is the reason they are a real global leading power. But China hesitates to enter formal treaty alliances with others because it means it needs to take care of other countries.”
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