If you’re feeling uneasy about the future of Social Security right now, you’re not alone. A whopping 87% of U.S. adults say they’re concerned about the program, according to a 2024 poll from Gallup, with 43% of that group saying they worry “a great deal” about it.
Furthermore, 43% of retirees believe their benefits will be cut in the future, while 47% of nonretired adults worry that Social Security won’t be able to pay them a benefit at all once they retire.
It’s no secret that Social Security is on shaky footing, and the current political climate could create more uncertainty around its future. While the problem may not be as dire as some might believe, there’s still good reason to be cautious going forward. Here’s what you need to know.
Image source: Getty Images.
The biggest problem plaguing Social Security
Social Security is a complex program, and one of the more confusing aspects is the financial state of its trust funds: the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) fund (which covers retirement benefits) and the Disability Insurance (DI) fund (covering disability benefits).
Normally, Social Security’s income sources — primarily payroll taxes — should be enough to fully fund benefits. The cash coming in from taxes is paid out to current beneficiaries, and future generations of workers will fund future retirees’ and workers with disabilities’ payments.
However, in recent years, the program’s income hasn’t been enough to fully fund benefits. There are a slew of reasons behind this, from older adults living much longer lifespans (collecting more years’ worth of benefits than previous generations) to a declining birth rate in the U.S. (with fewer workers paying into the system).
Because Social Security’s expenses exceed its income, the Social Security Administration (SSA) has been pulling money from the trust funds to bridge the gap. This strategy has avoided benefit cuts in the short term, but both the OASI and DI funds are expected to run out by 2035, according to the SSA Board of Trustees’ latest estimates.
Can lawmakers solve the problem?
The good news is that Social Security isn’t going bankrupt, and as long as workers continue paying payroll taxes, there will always be at least some money to pay out in benefits.
That said, if nothing happens between now and 2035, the trust funds will eventually run out. Social Security would need to rely solely on its income sources to pay out benefits, and according to the Board of Trustees’ projections, that income will only be enough to cover around 83% of future payments.
There’s also a chance the problem could worsen between now and then. President-elect Donald Trump has already promised to eliminate federal taxes on Social Security benefits, as well as taxes on tips and overtime pay. He has also suggested eliminating federal income tax altogether.
While tax cuts could put more money into the pockets of many Americans, it will also slash Social Security’s biggest income source. Without taxes, the SSA will not only have to pull more money from the trust funds in the short term (causing them to run out even faster), but once those funds are depleted, there will be even less cash to pay out in benefits (resulting in steeper cuts down the road).
It’s unclear right now whether these proposed tax cuts will happen, and there are other solutions on the table — such as increasing taxes for workers earning more than $400,000 per year, raising the full retirement age for retirees, and reducing benefits for high earners.
Should you be worried right now?
Nobody can say for certain what will happen between now and 2035. It’s likely that lawmakers will come up with some sort of solution before widespread benefit cuts become a reality, and any plans to eliminate federal taxes will almost surely face hurdles in Congress.
That said, if you’re going to be relying on Social Security in retirement, it’s wise to start coming up with a backup plan now. That could mean working a few years longer than planned to beef up your savings, or, if you can swing it, continuing to work at least part time in retirement. You could also try picking up a source of passive income to help replace Social Security in your budget.
At the very least, staying informed about these issues can help you plan more effectively. Social Security’s future may be up in the air right now, but by staying updated and having a backup plan ready, you can better protect your finances going forward.
