Katz warns ceasefire in jeopardy if Hezbollah doesn’t withdraw from south Lebanon

Israel will be “forced to act” if Hezbollah does not pull back from southern Lebanon as stipulated in the ceasefire agreement, Defense Minister Israel Katz warned on Sunday.

“Israel is interested in the implementation of the agreement in Lebanon and will continue to enforce it fully and without compromise to ensure the safe return of the residents of the north to their homes,” Katz said during a visit to an Israel Defense Forces base in northern Israel, where the military has set up a display of captured Hezbollah weapons.

As part of the truce agreement signed by Israel and the terror group on November 27, the IDF is required to cede all of its positions in southern Lebanon to the Lebanese army within 60 days. At the same time, Hezbollah is required to retreat north of the Litani River, some 30 kilometers (18 miles) from the border with Israel.

An Israeli official told The Times of Israel Sunday that Israel was recently signaling it could remain in Lebanon after the initial 60-day ceasefire to pressure the Lebanese Armed Forces to fulfill their obligations before the period ends.

Israel would very much prefer to have the Lebanese army deploy across southern Lebanon and ensure that Hezbollah retreats fully from the area, the official said.

Israeli forces have so far withdrawn from two towns in southern Lebanon — Khiam and Shamaa, but according to the International Organization for Migration, they remain stationed in some 60 others, and around 160,000 Lebanese remain displaced.

Meanwhile, the IDF has continued to carry out strikes against Hezbollah operatives and infrastructure in south Lebanon. It has denied violating the terms of the agreement, saying that the strikes have targeted Hezbollah’s own violations.

“But the first condition for the implementation of the agreement is the complete withdrawal of the Hezbollah terror organization beyond the Litani River, the dismantling of all weapons, and the [removal] of the terror infrastructure in the area by the Lebanese army, something that hasn’t happened yet,” Katz said.

“If this condition is not met, there will be no agreement, and Israel will be forced to act independently to ensure the safe return of the residents of the north to their homes,” he added.

In a Saturday speech, Hezbollah’s new chief Naim Qassem threatened that its “patience may run out” with Israeli behavior even before the end of the 60-day withdrawal period stipulated in the November truce agreement.

The war in Lebanon was sparked when Hezbollah, unprovoked, began firing at Israel on a near-daily basis on October 8, 2023, a day after fellow Iran-backed terror group Hamas stormed southern Israel to kill some 1,200 people and take 251 hostages, starting the war in Gaza.

Israel escalated the campaign against the terror group in September 2024, decimating its leadership and much of its capabilities, in a bid to end the persistent rocket fire that had displaced some 60,000 northerners.

Fighting came to a halt with the start of the ceasefire agreement on November 27, despite both parties frequently accusing the other of violating its terms.

Meanwhile, a senior Hezbollah official said on Sunday that long-time terror chief Hassan Nasrallah, killed by Israel in September, would be laid to rest after the 60-day initial ceasefire period. Top Hezbollah security official Wafiq Safa said preparations were underway for the burials of both the terror leader and his short-lived successor Hashem Safieddine.

Israel assassinated Nasrallah on September 27 and killed Safieddine days later. Nasrallah was reportedly buried temporarily in a secret location for fear Israel would target a large funeral.

Safa added that Lebanese parliament speaker Nabih Berri, who negotiated the ceasefire deal with Washington, told Hezbollah that the government will meet with US envoy Amos Hochstein soon. “And in light of what happens, then there will be a position.”

“Hezbollah is ready to face any aggression in the way it deems appropriate,” he pledged.

Analysts say truce likely to hold

Hochstein led the shuttle diplomacy efforts to reach the fragile truce, which analysts say is likely to hold despite the accusations from both sides about hundreds of ceasefire violations.

“The ceasefire agreement is rather opaque and open to interpretation,” said Firas Maksad, a senior fellow with the Middle East Institute in Washington. That flexibility, he said, may give it a better chance of holding in the face of changing circumstances, including the ouster of Syria’s longtime leader, Bashar al-Assad, just days after the ceasefire took effect.

With Assad gone, Hezbollah lost a vital route for smuggling weapons from Iran. That further weakened Hezbollah’s hand.

“The key question is not whether the deal will hold, but what version of it will be implemented,” Maksad said.

IDF Spokesperson Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani has said Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanese towns has been slower than anticipated because of a lack of Lebanese army troops ready to take over. Lebanon disputes this and says it is waiting for Israel to withdraw before entering the towns.

Shoshani said Israel is satisfied with the Lebanese army’s control of the areas it has already withdrawn from, and that while it would prefer a faster transfer of power, security is its most important objective.

Harel Chorev, an expert on Israel-Lebanon relations at Tel Aviv University, said Israel does not consider the 60-day withdrawal timetable as “sacred.” He said he estimates that Lebanon will need to recruit and deploy thousands more troops before Israel will be ready to hand over control.

Over the final two months of the war, Hezbollah suffered major blows to its leadership, weapons and forces from a barrage of Israeli airstrikes, and a ground invasion that led to fierce battles in southern Lebanon. The fall of Assad was another big setback.

“The power imbalance suggests Israel may want to ensure greater freedom of action after the 60-day period,” Maksad, the analyst, said. And Hezbollah, in its weakened position, now has a “strong interest” in making sure the deal doesn’t fall apart altogether “despite Israeli violations,” he said.

While Hezbollah may not be in a position to return to open war with Israel, it or other terror groups could mount attacks using light weaponry if IDF troops remain in southern Lebanon, said former Lebanese army Gen. Hassan Jouni.

And even if Israel does withdraw all of its ground forces, Jouni said, the IDF could continue to carry out sporadic airstrikes in Lebanon, much as it has done in Syria for years.

Times of Israel staff contributed to this report.