The most serious red flag fire weather warning has been issued by the National Weather Service for swaths of Los Angeles and Ventura counties starting before dawn Tuesday, underlining the continuing threat in a region weary after nearly a week of firestorms.
The ominous “particularly dangerous situation” warning was first issued by the local National Weather Service office in October 2020, and then in December 2020 — and then not again until 2024.
Issuing this warning “is one of the loudest ways that we can shout,” said Rose Schoenfeld, a National Weather Service meteorologist.
“This is a continued extreme fire weather and wind scenario,” Schoenfeld said. Gusts could range from 45 mph to 70 mph, and the air will be quite dry, especially Tuesday, with relative humidity as low as 5%. There will be a higher risk of power outages, rapid fire spread and extreme fire behavior, with fires able to travel swiftly as embers fly at high speeds.
“Do NOT do anything that could spark a fire,” the weather service said. The particularly dangerous situation warning was set to go into effect at 4 a.m. Tuesday and continue through noon Wednesday.
(National Weather Service)
Los Angeles Fire Chief Kristin Crowley said that fire crews had made extensive preparations in advance of this latest extreme weather event.
“I want to reassure you that your LAFD, all of our regional partners, every single agency that has come from up and down this state and outside of the state — we are ready,” she said Sunday afternoon.
These preparations include reinforcing fire control lines around the Eaton and Palisades fires, clearing dry brush away from surviving structures, and staging resources in areas where new fires could ignite.
“We’ve pre-positioned additional engines, fire crews, helicopters, bulldozers and water tenders across all of Southern California,” said Nancy Ward, director of the Governor’s Office of Emergency Services.
Crews are also preparing for a worst-case scenario where high winds prevent the use of firefighting aircraft by strategically dropping retardant around the fires’ perimeters.
“If [aircraft] get grounded, we have actually built ourselves a little bit of barrier in time for crews to get in there,” said L.A. County Fire Battalion Chief Christian Litz on Sunday afternoon.
Sunday’s sobering forecast came as the number of confirmed deaths from the devastating Palisades and Eaton fires jumped to 24. Eight of the fire victims died in the Palisades fire and 16 in the Eaton fire in Altadena, according to a news release from the Los Angeles County Medical Examiner.
Officials warn that the toll will probably keep rising. Search and recovery operations are underway in both the Eaton and Palisades fire zones using cadaver dogs and grid searches, said L.A. County Sheriff Robert Luna.
The fires are among the deadliest in California’s modern history. The state’s deadliest wildfire remains the Camp fire, which leveled the town of Paradise in Butte County in 2018 and killed at least 85 people. The second deadliest was the Griffith Park fire of 1933, with 29 fatalities; followed by the Oakland-Berkeley hills fire of 1991, where 25 died; and the Tubbs fire in Napa and Sonoma counties in 2017, with 22 killed.
Although there is no final tally yet of structures burned, the fires are also already among the most destructive in modern California history. According to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, the Palisades fire has burned more than 5,300 structures, and the Eaton fire more than 5,000, ranking as the third- and fourth-most destructive fires on record.
They are only eclipsed by the Tubbs fire, which burned over 5,600 structures in 2017 in wine country, and the Camp fire, which burned nearly 19,000 structures.
The Palisades fire was at 23,713 acres and 13% contained on Sunday evening, while the Eaton fire was at 14,117 acres and 27% contained, according to Cal Fire.
As officials try to determine the cause of the Eaton fire, which burned areas in and around Altadena, investigators have focused on an electrical transmission tower in Eaton Canyon. Early photos and videos taken by residents captured what appeared to be the first flames of the deadly Eaton fire burning at the base of the Southern California Edison electrical transmission tower before racing down the canyon toward homes.
Southern California Edison officials have so far said they do not believe their electrical equipment was responsible.
As for the 800-acre Hurst fire near Sylmar, fire agencies are investigating whether downed Southern California Edison utility equipment might have played a role in igniting the blaze, company officials said. The fire — which began Tuesday near Diamond Road in Sylmar — was 89% contained and evacuation orders had been lifted as of Sunday, though firefighting efforts were continuing.
The company issued a report Friday saying that a downed conductor was discovered at a tower in the vicinity of the fire but that it “does not know whether the damage observed occurred before or after the start of the fire.”
This week’s fire weather is not expected to be as severe as last week’s historic windstorms that fueled the Palisades and Eaton fires, Schoenfeld said. The area covered by the particularly dangerous situation warning affects a relatively smaller area — primarily the northern San Fernando Valley, including Porter Ranch and San Fernando; the western Santa Monica Mountains and the Malibu area; wide swaths of Ventura County, including the cities of Ventura, Simi Valley and Fillmore; and the Grapevine section of Interstate 5.
“However, this is an extremely dangerous situation that may result in very extreme fire behavior and life-threatening conditions,” Schoenfeld said. “Fuels remain critically dry, with an extended period of very low humidities across the region.”
Exacerbating the situation is how little rain Southern California has received. Only 0.16 inches of rain has fallen since Oct. 1 in downtown Los Angeles, essentially nothing compared to the 5.23 inches that is, on average, seen by this point in the water year.
Sustained winds are forecast on the coast and in valleys from 25 mph to 40 mph, with gusts of 30 mph to 50 mph. In the mountains and foothills, sustained winds of 30 mph to 45 mph are possible, with peak gusts of 50 mph to 70 mph.
While downtown L.A. and Long Beach should be expecting peak gusts of 15 mph, gusts could hit 40 mph in Canoga Park and Lancaster, 43 mph in Oxnard, 47 mph in Santa Clarita, 53 mph in Fillmore, 55 mph at Pyramid Lake and 69 mph in Acton.
There will be a higher risk of downed trees and power lines than with a typical red flag fire weather warning, Schoenfeld said. Public safety power shutoffs are more likely in the area of the particularly dangerous situation.
The area covered by this warning does not include the footprint of the Palisades and Eaton fires but is close by. It does include the Hurst fire area in Sylmar.
This wind event will be a more conventional Santa Ana wind, with winds coming out of the east and spreading fires to the west. Last week’s windstorms were worsened by a “mountain wave wind,” which occurs when gusts rapidly drop down mountain slopes, then gain strength upon hitting a flat landscape. The phenomenon caused short bursts of strong, dangerous winds, with gusts of up to 100 mph reported near Altadena. Winds from that event came primarily from the north.
Last week’s windstorms were rare because the winds were extraordinarily widespread and affected areas that don’t typically see strong winds during powerful Santa Ana wind events, Schoenfeld said. Typically, when gusts of 100 mph are reported, they’re isolated to the mountains. Altadena and foothill areas of the San Gabriel Valley don’t usually see severe winds during conventional Santa Ana wind events — but they did last week, one main reason that Altadena was so devastated by the Eaton fire.
(National Weather Service)
This is the fourth warning of a particularly dangerous situation issued since autumn. Each of the three prior warnings was followed by major, destructive fires — the 19,904-acre Mountain fire in Ventura County, which razed more than 240 buildings in November; the 4,037-acre Franklin fire, which spread rapidly in Malibu and destroyed 20 buildings in December; and last week’s Palisades and Eaton fires.
A conventional red flag warning — alerting about critical fire weather conditions — has already been in effect since Saturday for large swaths of Southern California, and is set to expand Monday. The red flag warning areas cover regions much larger than those covered by the particularly dangerous situation.
The red flag warning for L.A. and Ventura counties is expected to end at 6 p.m. Wednesday.
Officials also warned of a risk of hazardous seas and gusty winds off L.A. County. The affected area extends from Malibu to Santa Monica and includes Anacapa Island and the San Pedro Channel. Avalon Harbor on Catalina Island could see significant gusts.
There is expected to be a respite in extreme fire weather starting Thursday and lasting through the weekend or so, “with lighter winds and increasing humidities,” Schoenfeld said.
Gov. Gavin Newsom said Sunday he was deploying an additional 1,000 members of the California National Guard to fire-ravaged Los Angeles. The new additions will bring the total number of Guard members in the region to about 2,500 by Monday, according to the governor’s office.
Los Angeles authorities said Sunday they arrested 29 more people overnight in the fire zones, including one burglary suspect who was allegedly dressed as a firefighter. Of those arrested, 25 were apprehended in the Eaton fire zone and four in the Palisades fire zone, authorities said.
Mexican firefighters and emergency personnel have arrived in Los Angeles to help with the fire fight. Gov. Gavin Newsom said 72 firefighters arrived Saturday. They joined thousands of others battling the fires.
Times staff writers Rebecca Ellis, Grace Toohey, Jenny Jarvie, Laura J. Nelson, Kevin Rector, Ruben Vives, Julia Wick and Richard Winton contributed to this report.
