In short, Macron will carry on regardless, blaming everyone but himself for the chronic malaise, writes Nabila Ramdani [photo credit: Getty Images]
French President Emmanuel Macron could not have looked more tragic as he took a solitary walk along the banks of the River Seine in Paris last week. The 47-year-old head of state was an accomplished actor as a student, and he still plays up to dramatic moments.
They don’t come more intense than the resignation of a prime minister after spending just 27 days in office, especially when he returns to power just four days later. Sébastien Lecornu has always been a committed Macron loyalist, but even he must appreciate how ridiculous it all looks.
He took the job back “out of duty,” and also said he would “do everything possible to provide France with a budget by the end of the year, and to address the daily problems of our fellow citizens.”
This might have suggested Lecornu was taking responsibility for the chaos engulfing his country. Still, it is, in fact, Lame Duck Macron who is ultimately responsible for the biggest crisis in French democracy since the founding of the Fifth Republic in 1958. Then, the country was on the verge of civil war, as politicians and military officers tried to hang on to Algeria, their largest and most prestigious colony.
General Charles de Gaulle, the Second World War hero, returned from the wilderness to deal with the crisis, and he was supported by a new Constitution. It created an all-powerful head of state who, it was hoped, would introduce some stability into a notoriously divided country.
All these years on, the reverse is the case. Macron is portrayed as a friendless maverick who simply doesn’t care about democracy.
His popularity is at rock bottom, with approval ratings hovering below the 20% mark. He has continually attacked “the extremes” of French politics – specifically the Rassemblement National (NR for National Rally) on the Right, and France Unbowed (LFI for La France Insoumise) on the Left.
In fact, the NR is the largest single party in the National Assembly, France’s equivalent of the House of Commons, while LFI also has massive support across the country.
Rather than working with such foes, in the interests of creating a majority with which to govern France, Macron has bypassed them. More than that, he has continually used Article 49.3 of the Constitution, which effectively allows him to rule by presidential decree.
Hugely unpopular measures introduced in this manner have ranged from pushing the pension age up to 64 from 62, and making it easier for companies to fire workers on short-term contracts. In the meantime, Macron’s wretched prime ministers have failed miserably to hold minority coalition governments together.
His seven failed prime ministers in just eight years, not least of all Lecornu, have all proved ineffectual in every department, especially at reining in public spending. The national debt in France is currently 114% of gross domestic product (GDP), and the budget deficit is at 5.8% of GDP.
Such figures illustrate appalling budgetary discipline from the second largest economy in the EU, which requires from its member states that public debt should remain below 60% of GDP, and a budget deficit below 3% of GDP.
France’s massive spending has not resulted in a settled society that can in any way live up to its stated ideals of Liberty, Equality and Fraternity for all citizens.
Instead, the country is as wracked with the same kind of extremism as the Paris Parliament itself. Hence, Lecornu’s immediate predecessor as prime minister, François Bayrou saying: “The life of the nation is at stake”.
The never-ending political crisis is not just about the €44billion in budget cuts that Macron wants to impose either. Instead, the chaos says everything about the fault lines in a republic that is struggling to adapt to a changing world. I examine such deep-seated issues in my book Fixing France: How to Repair a Broken Republic.
French industrialists make billions through some of the most successful companies in the world, but the vast majority of French citizens face a cost-of-living crisis and rampant inequalities.
This is why so many of them are joining strikes and other mass protests across the nation. The disorder is being exploited by parties such as the RN and LFI, who hope that the turbulence will ultimately result in their own President.
Marine Le Pen, the long-term RN presidential candidate, even believes she can defy a criminal conviction for embezzlement to replace Macron as head of state in 2027, when he will be forced to step down after serving the two terms allowed in the job.
Meanwhile, Macron will rely on the absurd amount of power granted to him by the Fifth Republic Constitution to stay at the Élysée Palace until the last moment. If he loses Lecornu again – something that seems very likely – he can appoint anyone he likes as prime minister. Some of Macron’s earlier PMs were not even elected politicians, while cabinet ministers can also be close friends or corporate cronies.
In short, Macron will carry on regardless, blaming everyone but himself for the chronic malaise. This is why all shades of the political spectrum are now calling for a referendum on the establishment of a Sixth Republic – one with a new constitution that will reduce presidential power. Macron will now spend a few days contemplating his next move. Whatever it is, we can be sure that he will do the majority of his thinking.
Nabila Ramdani is a French-Algerian Journalist, Broadcaster, Academic, and Author of Fixing France: How to Repair a Broken Republic (PublicAffairs/Hurst).
Follow Nabila on Twitter: @NabilaRamdani
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Opinions expressed in this article remain those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of The New Arab, its editorial board or staff.
