In 1924, the Soviet Union under Joseph Stalin unleashed its divide-and-rule policy to ethnically divide the Fergana Valley among the Uzbek Socialist Soviet Republic and the Kara-Kirgiz Autonomous Region. Further divisions in 1929 led to the establishment of a separate Tajik republic, effectively splitting the valley’s administration between three Soviet republics: eventually the independent countries of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
Moscow’s objective was to prevent the formation of a single powerful entity that could pose a challenge to its overall supremacy. As long as the Soviet Union existed, it exercised control over resources and irrigation systems of the valley, despite the borders between the constituent republics. Moscow remained the ultimate arbitrator to resolve disputes and thus maintained control over the region.
The unravelling of the Soviet Union and the birth of the independent Central Asian states in the 1990s brought long simmering issues and conflict over limited resources to the forefront. The Soviet Union’s borders had created a complicated patchwork of territories comprising enclaves and exclaves that had to navigate shared resources like water. With independence, legacy disputes over resources and power surfaced, marring relations between the three countries over the densely populated valley area that spans over 22,000 square kilometers and crosses eastern Uzbekistan, southern Kyrgyzstan, and northern Tajikistan.
Low-level conflicts in the form of occasional shooting on the border, rock-throwing incidents, and competition over water resources continued from the 1990s onto the 2000s. And then the conflict escalated sharply. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan engaged in intense border clashes in 2021, which recurred in the form of a four-day war in 2022 that left more than 100 people dead. Heavy artillery fire and foreign-made drones forced over 100,000 Kyrgyz citizens to flee their homes. Weeks after the second conflict, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon and his Kyrgyz counterpart, Sadyr Japarov, could not even shake hands at a meeting orchestrated by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The situation, however, changed dramatically in the next three years.
On March 12, 2025, Japarov and Rahmon engaged in a long handshake and three hugs before signing a landmark treaty in the Kyrgyz capital, Bishkek, the next day. The treaty demarcated all of the nearly 1,000-kilometer border between the two countries.
On March 31, the presidents of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan met in the Tajik city of Khujand to officially announce that all territorial disputes between their countries had been resolved. It was an earnest attempt by the three countries to leave behind the legacy of conflict behind and forge cooperation. This was done behind closed doors, conducted by relevant commissions as is customary in such cases of conflict resolution in sync with the local customs and traditions. The border issue was complex; commissions visited the sites, negotiated with the populace and paid heed to the needs to the local communities. The effort thus has considerable local buy-in and support.
Although the circumstances under which the agreement was brokered raise questions about the lack of transparency, absence of public debate, and suppression of dissent, there seems to be urgency in all three countries to promote a shared outlook for peace and development that can guard against future tensions. Since then, all three countries have joined hands to consolidate the gains and address the Fergana Valley’s enduring water and resource challenges that seem to be worsening with the impact of climate change.
I participated in the inaugural Fergana Peace Forum on October 15 and 16 in Fergana, Uzbekistan. Entitled “Fergana Valley: Uniting Efforts for Peace and Progress,” the forum was convened by the Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, in partnership with the National Institute for Strategic Initiatives under the President of the Kyrgyz Republic, the Center for Strategic Studies under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan, and Institute of studying of the problems of Asian and European countries of the National Academy of Sciences of Tajikistan. The event was promoted as a platform to advance mutual understanding and provide an analytical framework for next steps in the peace process.
A huge gathering by all means, the forum – supported by the United Nations, Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA) , Commonwealth of Independent States (СIS), and the European Union – hosted the governors of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan’s respective border regions, and also some of the world’s leading peacemakers and conflict resolution experts. More importantly, the forum brought to together women leaders, youth, private sector figures, and civil society organizations, providing an opportunity to build cross-border connections and sustainable partnerships.
The Fergana Valley region is home to about 17 million people, making up 20 percent of Central Asia’s total population, with 60 percent of that population under the age of 30. This demographic dividend presents both a tremendous opportunity and a significant responsibility. The provinces of the region account for 25-30 percent of the combined GDP of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, making economic cooperation and connectivity essential for the prosperity of all three nations.
What struck me most profoundly is how the forum managed to highlight a fundamental shift occurring across Central Asia. Over the past decade, the region’s economy has grown at a rate of 6.2 percent – nearly double the global average. By way of comparison, according to the World Bank, Uzbekistan’s economy is about eight times larger than Kyrgyzstan’s and roughly seven times larger than Tajikistan’s. Despite this variation, trade volume between Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan has increased more than 5.5 times since 2016, reaching $1.7 billion. Trade between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan has surged even more dramatically in 2025 (January to May), increasing more than 15-fold compared to the same period in 2024. Far from being only plain statistics, this growth in trade has resulted in improved livelihoods, agriculture and industrial policies, education and expanded opportunities, and the long-term benefits of choosing cooperation over confrontation.
Notwithstanding the stated fragility, the valley’s transformation from a conflict zone into a unified entity with collective identity demonstrates that ensuring stability is achievable even amid global uncertainty. This message resonates particularly strongly as the world grapples with various regional conflicts and deteriorating international relations elsewhere. For the international community, the Fergana Peace Forum, therefore, offers lessons in conflict transformation and regional cooperation. In an era marked by global turbulence, rising geopolitical tensions, and deepening distrust between nations, the Fergana Valley has the potential to be a model for building interstate relations, collective identity and regional connectivity.
