Liberals are surging back in Quebec 

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OTTAWA — A month ago, Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet was openly talking about the possibility of forming the next Official Opposition in Parliament. Now, polling suggests he might lose seats to the Liberals.

“Don’t worry, I have cleats… The rug is not going to slide out from under me,” Blanchet said at his caucus retreat two weeks ago when asked about a possible surge in Liberal voting intentions as the party’s leadership race got underway.

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“Every day since Mr. Trudeau finally had the right idea of stepping down brings its challenges,” he acknowledged.

And this one is juicy. The political tides are moving swiftly in Quebec, a province where big swings at the federal level are more the norm than the exception.

According to a recent Léger/Québecor poll, the Justin Trudeau-led Liberal Party of Canada moved to first place from second place in December, now tied with the Bloc Québécois at 29 per cent. The Conservatives, who were tied for second with 22 per cent support in December, are now third with 24 per cent. The NDP is fourth with 12 per cent.

The Liberals enjoyed a seven-point hike, the Bloc a six-point drop.

But the worst news for the Bloc is that with Mark Carney as leader, the Liberals would surge to 38 per cent in Quebec, 14 points ahead of the Bloc.

The polling was done online between Jan. 31 and Feb. 2  with a sample of 1,017 Quebecers.

According to Léger’s executive vice-president, Sébastien Dallaire, the “surprising shift” is not so much related to Trudeau’s resignation on Jan. 6, but to the 25-per-cent tariff threat from U.S. President Donald J. Trump on Feb. 1.

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“For the past few years, the main foil has been Justin Trudeau… In a situation like this, the main foil for voters is Donald Trump,” said Dallaire, who added that for both Blanchet and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, “it requires a very fast shift, trying to find a new message that will resonate with voters.”

“Bring it on… I welcome this (poll) with mischievous enthusiasm,” said Blanchet with a smirk at a news conference in Gaspésie, Que., on Thursday.

“This poll comes at a good moment. It was made during the worst part of a crisis that was created by the American president, and it did make people afraid of what was coming,” he said, underlining that he was pleased that Quebec would be brought back into the national conversation.

In recent months, Blanchet has made a point of publicly mentioning the ridings he wants to swing in his party’s favour. He said he was targeting the south shore of Montreal, part of Laval, the Outaouais region and, for good measure, the Eastern Townships.

And he wants Hochelaga, the Montreal-area seat that belongs to Soraya Martinez Ferrada, the former Liberal campaign co-chair. Martinez Ferrada announced earlier this week she was resigning from cabinet to run for Montreal mayor.

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The Liberals have many MPs in all these regions and a few weeks ago, many observers were predicting a bloodbath.

Philippe J. Fournier was one of them. The man behind the polling aggregator 338Canada.com updates his website weekly with all the available surveys. Since the summer of 2023, he has never seen such a movement on the federal scene.

For over a year, the Bloc has been leading in the polls in Quebec, particularly among French-speaking voters. New polls by Léger, a leading firm in the province, show that Carney, the perceived front-runner in the leadership race, would win the support of 33 per cent of Francophones. Even Trudeau, a French-speaking Quebecer who represents a Montreal riding, did not get such support in the last two elections.

“So, if those numbers were put into a map, the Liberals would win back all these seats in the projection that they had lost to the Bloc Quebecois and make some gains,” said Fournier.

“But, again, this could be a sugar high,” he added.

The Léger poll also highlights that among the Conservatives, the Liberals and the Bloc, it is the Conservatives who benefit from decided voters, with 63 per cent of potential voters saying they would vote for them. The Bloc is third in this category with more than half of its potential voters (52 per cent) showing themselves to be flexible.

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For separatists, new challenges loom on the horizon as Canadian patriotism is on the rise. Quebec’s independence project was gaining ground in recent months. In November, Léger found that 37 per cent of Quebecers would vote “yes” if a referendum on leaving Canada were held.

Today, that figure is 29 per cent.

Even though the water seems rougher than two weeks ago, Blanchet is not bored.

He wants an election.

“As soon as possible,” he said.

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