The Super Bowl of the arts is coming on Sunday night. And while Americans may not pay attention to the Academy Awards as they used to, they still pack a punch.
The films and those who make the films (actors, actresses, producers, directors, etc.) are artists of the highest caliber. The Oscar show, however, is largely about statistics. So what are those statistics telling us about the Oscars this year? Let’s talk about it.
Who is likely to win in the Big Five categories
The Big Five categories are best actor, best actress, best director, best screenplay (original or adapted) and, of course, best picture. Three films have won all Big Five, and the last to do it was “Silence of the Lambs” in 1991. No film this year is eligible to pull it off.
Still, based on the implied probabilities of the betting markets, here are who will most likely win the Oscars in those categories.
Best actor: Will Smith is a clear favorite with north of an 80% chance of winning for his role in “King Richard.” Benedict Cumberbatch is really the only somewhat plausible nominee with a little bit more than a 10% chance of winning for his role in “The Power of the Dog.”
Best actress: Unlike in best actor, there are a number of plausible winners. Jessica Chastain has about a 60% chance of winning for her role in “The Eyes of Tammy Faye.” She’s followed by Nicole Kidman (“Being the Ricardos”) with just south of a 20% chance of winning, and Olivia Colman (“The Lost Daughters”) and Kristen Stewart (“Spencer”) with about a 10% chance of taking home the Oscar.
Best director: It would be quite surprising if Jane Campion doesn’t win here for “The Power of the Dog.” She has about a 90% chance of taking home the Oscar. If anyone scores a major upset, it will be Steven Spielberg (“West Side Story”) or Kenneth Branagh (“Belfast”), though both have less than 5% chance.
Best original screenplay and best adapted screenplay: Honestly, I don’t know who is going to win in either of these categories. “Licorice Pizza” and “Belfast” each have about a 40% chance in the best original screenplay category (with “Don’t Look Up” at about 15%). “CODA” is somewhat ahead (a little north of 50% chance) of “The Power of the Dog” (a little south of 40%) in the best adapted screenplay race.
Best picture: This is a two film race. It’s very likely either “The Power of the Dog” (a little more than a 50% chance of winning) or “CODA” (a little less than a 40%) who will take home the big prize this year.
For more on what the statistics tell us about this year’s audience and more, read my full report here.