MANILA – Bruised by the May midterm election and shadowed by
a stalled impeachment trial against his erstwhile ally Vice-President Sara Duterte,
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr used his fourth State of the Nation address to project strength and reclaim authority amid growing doubts over his leadership.
Breaking from his run-of-the-mill speeches in the last three years, Mr Marcos on July 28 laid out a series of populist promises aimed at improving welfare and infrastructure programmes for ordinary Filipinos: Free dialysis at state-run health centres, payment of teachers’ unpaid overtime salaries, electricity and water supplies in far-flung areas, and expanded transport services for key urban centres were among the initiatives mooted.
But the most pointed moment in the speech came at the end, when Mr Marcos warned lawmakers against tampering with his proposed 6.793 trillion peso (S$152.5 billion) budget for fiscal year 2026. He also vowed to crack down on corruption and investigate anomalous flood control projects that have long been seen by some quarters as sources of “pork barrel” or discretionary funds.
“Pork barrel funds” refer to government funds allocated to local projects deemed to benefit a particular constituency or interest group, and are often at the discretion of individual legislators or the executive branch. These funds are frequently associated with political patronage.
“To those conspiring to steal public funds and rob our people of their future, have some shame! Have some shame for the families whose homes were swept away in floods. Have some shame for the children who will inherit the debts you created, the money you pocketed for yourselves,” Mr Marcos said.
Analysts told The Straits Times that Mr Marcos’ tone was deliberate, with the President recognising his administration’s vulnerabilities and attempting to posit himself as a leader willing to wield power more decisively.
“The budget, as devised by Marcos and his team, is their way of delivering those big promises that he made in his address,” said Mr Michael Yusingco, senior research fellow at the Manila-based Ateneo Policy Centre. “So this is a very powerful message because he’s saying: ‘I am in control now. This is the budget that I want’.”
Mr Marcos’ approval ratings dropped to their lowest levels at the height of the midterm election season, which saw the allies of Ms Duterte and opposition figures outnumbering the Marcos-backed candidates in the Senate race.
His Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas camp won only six of the 12 contested Senate seats – while Ms Duterte not only retained formidable public support but also emerged as the pivotal power broker amid ongoing impeachment proceedings.
Analysts say this was a “protest vote” in response to the Marcos government’s failure to deliver basic services, something the President himself acknowledged at the start of his annual speech to Congress.
“This is Marcos going on accountability mode… He is hitting on the kind of business-as-usual politics riddled with corruption and kickbacks,” said Dr Aries Arugay, visiting senior fellow at Singapore’s ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute and head of the University of the Philippines’ political science department. “Finally, he is showing the big stick that he possesses as president.”
Dr Arugay and Mr Yusingco say that Mr Marcos’ decision to go big on populist messaging isn’t just about rallying public support but also aimed at putting pressure on lawmakers who may be hedging their bets ahead of the 2028 presidential race, where early surveys show Ms Duterte as the leading contender.
A case in point is Mr Marcos’ vow to audit flood control projects. Long linked to congressional corruption, his firm stance on these projects drew a standing ovation from lawmakers when the President warned of prosecutions in his speech.
“It is the lawmakers, the political dynasties themselves who are profiting from these flood control projects. So is this a veiled warning to them?” mused Mr Yusingco.
Mr Marcos is expected to appoint a new Ombudsman in the coming weeks, to be tasked with going after errant politicians.
Dr Arugay believes the appointment will be a “litmus” test of whether the President’s anti-corruption push is genuine, saying: “Will the Ombudsman chase Marcos allies or only those deemed as enemies of the President? His (the President’s) accountability campaign will only be genuine and sincere if even people who are not his political enemies will be held accountable.”
The continued friction between the Marcos and Duterte families remains a destabilising factor to the President’s agenda in the last three years of his single six-year term, which ends in 2028.
On July 25, the Supreme Court ruled that the articles of impeachment sent by the Marcos-dominated House of Representatives to the Senate were unconstitutional, citing the one-year ban on filing multiple impeachment complaints against the same official. It remains unclear whether the Senate will follow the ruling or proceed to convene as an impeachment court to try the country’s vice-president for alleged impeachable offences.
The court said it was not absolving Ms Duterte of the charges she faces. But the ruling means she has been granted a reprieve from possible ousting, at least until February 2026.
Dr Arugay noted: “We cannot avoid that possibility… If the Senate and the House heed the Supreme Court, we will go back to square one of the impeachment process. And therefore, the attention of the country will be on that again instead of (Marcos’ policy agenda).”
For now, Mr Marcos’ strategy appears to be twofold: Win over the public with social spending, and pressure Congress into submission. But Mr Yusingco said that the President’s biggest hurdle is not the opposition, but the entrenched dynasties within his own coalition.
“The Speaker of the House (Martin Romualdez) is his cousin. But the House Speaker also made promises to the lawmakers. So there’s going to be a lot of horse-trading,” he said.
What remains to be seen is whether Mr Marcos will follow through on the tough talk. In his first three years, the President was often criticised for being aloof and reactive instead of proactive, particularly on domestic governance issues. In his latest speech, he attempted to reframe that narrative.
“Mr Marcos doesn’t seem to have the credibility (that he can go hard against corruption),” said Dr Arugay. “He needs to stand his ground… This is uncharted terrain for him”.
