CHISINAU, Moldova (AP) — On a frigid morning in Moldova’s capital, 39-year-old postal worker Petru Murzin braces for a difficult winter as he fears a looming energy shortage could leave many Moldovans with “no heating, no light.”
His concerns aren’t unfounded.
On Jan. 1, Russia’s state-owned energy giant Gazprom is set to halt gas supplies to the European Union candidate country over an alleged $709 million debt for past supplies, a figure fiercely disputed by Moldova’s pro-Western government, that has accused Moscow of weaponizing energy as a political tool to destabilize the country.
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“I feel that we’ve entered a crisis that is quite difficult to resolve … which worries me greatly,” Murzin told The Associated Press in Chisinau. “Price increases are one thing, but when there is no gas at all, that’s something entirely different.”
The cessation will stop gas flowing to the Kuciurgan power plant, the country’s largest, which is situated in the separatist pro-Russian Transnistria region. The gas-operated plant generates electricity that powers a significant portion of Moldova proper.
“There will be no heating, no light,” Murzin added. “We are entering a very difficult year.”
Transnistria, which broke away after a short war in 1992 and is not recognized by most countries, also declared its own state of emergency earlier this month, fearing the region will not receive gas supplies. A large majority of Transnistria’s 470,000 people speak Russian as their first language and some 200,000 are Russian citizens.
On Dec. 13, Moldova’s parliament voted in favor of imposing a state of emergency in the energy sector, as the looming crisis threatened to leave the former Soviet republic without sufficient energy this winter, sparking fears it could trigger a humanitarian crisis in Transnistria, where the impact of the gas cutoff could be immediately felt.
Many observers have predicted that the looming energy shortage could force residents in Transnistria to travel to Moldova to seek basic amenities to get through winter, a season in which temperatures throughout the country regularly drop below subzero degrees Celsius.
Cristian Cantir, a Moldovan associate professor of international relations at Oakland University, says that Moscow is likely trying to exploit a “potential humanitarian crisis in Transnistria to overwhelm Moldova’s already-strained resources” to amplify tensions between Chisinau and the region’s de facto capital, Tiraspol.
“It could stoke fears among the Moldovan electorate of a violent conflict, and give fodder to pro-Russian parties who will accuse Chisinau of being responsible for increased prices for gas and electricity, which will be a major campaign issue” ahead of the country’s parliamentary elections in 2025, he said.
The unprecedented situation prompted Chisinau last week to implement a series of energy-saving measures beginning Jan. 1, which include reducing lighting in public and commercial buildings by at least 30%, and energy-intensive businesses operating during off-peak hours.
“We’ll probably have to save power till we have a solution,” said Nicoleta Neagu, who is from Moldova but works in Germany. “I hope we’ll look at this seriously and not waste power on not-so-useful things.”
After Gazprom announced it would halt gas flows, Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean accused Moscow of using energy “as a political weapon” and said his government does not recognize the debt cited by the Russian energy giant, which he said has been “invalidated by an international audit.”
“This decision confirms once again the intention of the Kremlin to leave the inhabitants of the Transnistrian region without light and heat in the middle of the winter,” he said.
For 30-year-old Chisinau resident Iuliana, who did not want to give her surname, power outages would prevent her from doing her online job, which could also be untenable if the heating goes off in the middle of winter in the country of about 2.5 million people.
“We’re afraid, but we’re happy that there’s no snow and the temperatures aren’t that low and we can turn on the heating maybe only in the evening if we work at an office,” she said. “But I work from home and I’ll be directly affected.”
She also noted that Moldova has faced multiple crises in recent years, “But regarding power and gas, it’s the first time we face this,” she said.
Moldovan President Maia Sandu criticized Russia on Monday for Gazprom’s decision and said that the country has gas supplies “for the heating season” and measures will be taken “to ensure uninterrupted electricity supply,” adding that plans are also in place to provide humanitarian aid to residents in Transnistria.
“The Kremlin is again using energy blackmail in an attempt to destabilize the situation, to influence the 2025 parliamentary elections and to undermine our European journey,” she said. “It is important to remain united, show solidarity, and trust in Moldova and its people. And to use energy rationally.”
Moldova has repeatedly claimed Russia is conducting a vast “hybrid war” against the country by meddling in elections, funding anti-government protests, and running vast disinformation campaigns to try to topple the government and derail the country’s EU aspirations.
The Kuciurgan plant was privatized in 2004 by Transnistrian officials and later sold to a Russian state-owned company, but Chisinau doesn’t recognize the privatization. On Monday, Recean asked the justice minister to review nationalization legislation, to potentially recover “strategic assets that were forcefully taken over.”
Citing findings by British and Norwegian audit firms, Moldova claims its debt stands close to $8.6 million, a fraction of that claimed by the Russian energy giant. Gazprom said in a statement Saturday that it reserved the right to take further action, including terminating its contract with Moldovagaz, Moldova’s main gas operator, in which the Russian company owns a majority stake.
In late 2022, months after Russia fully invaded neighboring Ukraine, Moldova suffered major power outages following Russian strikes on Ukraine, which is interconnected to the Kuciurgan plant.
When the war next door started, Moldova was entirely dependent on Moscow for natural gas but has since pushed to diversify and expand its energy sources, and now relies on obtaining gas from other European markets.
Murzin, the postal worker, is expecting to see large inflows of people from Transnistria crossing the border once the shortage hits.
“I think cars will line up for several kilometers at the border,” he said. “Many people will come here, hoping for warmth.”
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Associated Press writer Stephen McGrath contributed from Warwick, England.
