SUNSPORT brings you a Betfair betting special with top tipster Tony Calvin.
The horse racing guru turns his eye to the big 3pm race at Haydock today – with a huge outsider who he really fancies.
KEEPER HILL (Now 28-1 from 40-1 Haydock, 3pm)
Money is already coming in for the rank outsider in the field, who was as much as 50-1 recently.
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The last two winners of this race, Lostintranslation and course favourite Bristol De Mai, locking horns with the King George winner Clan Des Obeaux should be a proper contest.
For reasons I will attempt to explain though, I believe there could be a right boil-over on Saturday afternoon, and hopefully one provided by Keeper Hill and not Bellshill (though both have been backed from 50/1 on Thursday, with the latter halving in price).
Yes, I know he is rated only 150, and he doesn’t have a prayer on the official figures, but all of the front three in the market can chuck in shockers and first time up in the mud at Haydock may just get them all beat.
Clan des Obeaux has been beaten on his last four reappearances, for starters, but I appreciate the case against the last year’s 1-2 is much harder to make.
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However, Lostintranslation is not bullet-proof first time out, he ran no kind of race at Kempton and the form of the Colin Tizzard stable continues to be variable (if improving), while the output of the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard leaves a bit to be desired too, and his grey is getting on for 10 now after not being seen since running moderately in the Gold Cup.
Now, I can hardly say all that without referencing that Keeper Hill’s trainer Warren Greatrex is in even worse form, with one winner in October and none this month, but at least his horse has shown his well-being with a good fourth in the Charlie Hall and he is the only one of this quintet coming here with the advantage of a run this season.
Hopefully, that is a factor that the market has under-estimated.
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Keeper Hill went off a 50-1 chance at Wetherby but he ran well for a very long way there, turning for home in a close third and still travelling nicely enough (he hit 9.8 in running).
His run petered out but if he can build on that, then this course winner – he won the 2m5f handicap chase on this card last season – could just have a better squeak than odds of 50-1+ suggest.
He will probably blow out but it is a dart worth throwing.
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