All spreads, totals and moneylines taken from the consensus odds at VegasInsider.com on Wednesday morning.
East
No. 4 Florida State (-11) vs. No. 13 UNC Greensboro
Since 2014, favorites in 4-13 matchup have gone 10-14 against the spread (ATS) and only 2-6 ATS over the last two tournaments. Three of the last eight No. 4 seeds have lost their first-round games outright. UNC Greensboro held opponents to a Division I-low effective shooting rate this season (48 percent), good enough to slow down Florida State’s top 10 offense just enough to keep this closer than expected.
Midwest
No. 1 Illinois (-22½) vs. No. 16 Drexel
Top-seeded teams are 11-17 ATS in the first round over the past seven NCAA tournaments (1-3 ATS in 2019). For Drexel to cover it will have to shoot well and play at its own leisurely pace. Luckily the Dragons have three players capable of spreading Illinois’s lockdown defense (the fifth-best in the country per Ken Pomeroy’s rankings). Mate Okros, Camren Wynter and Zach Walton all attempt more than four three-point shots per game and all three hit at least 39 percent of those attempts.
No. 3 West Virginia (-12½) vs. No. 14 Morehead State
Pick: Morehead State +12½
The Mountaineers are a poor shooting squad. Their effective field goal rate, 49 percent, is one of the lowest in the tournament (only seven schools are worse) and they allow opponents to grab an above-average rate of misses off the offensive glass. That sets up Morehead State to keep this game competitive. And over the past six tournaments, No. 14 seeds that are underdogs of at least 12 points are 9-6 ATS in the first round (though such teams went 0-3 ATS in 2019).
South
No. 5 Villanova vs. No. 12 Winthrop
Expect this to be a high-scoring game. Winthrop likes to play at a fast pace — its average length of possession on offense is less than 15 seconds, more than two seconds faster that the league average — and it’s a strong shooting team that isn’t afraid to bang around down low for offensive rebounds and second-chance opportunities. Plus, its defense can generate a lot of turnovers for chances the other way. Villanova doesn’t play as fast but it is efficient, scoring 119.3 points per 100 possessions, the ninth-best mark in the country after adjusting for opponent. Don’t be surprised if close to 150 points are scored in this contest.
No. 1 Baylor (-26) vs. No. 16 Hartford
Let’s face it: Hartford isn’t going to win this matchup but it can hinder Baylor at the three-point line. Baylor led the nation in three-point percentage (42 percent) but Hartford held opponents to just 29 percent shooting, the ninth-best mark in the country. The difference could be as many as five points over the course of this game without taking into account any fallout like a change in game plan by Baylor to instead focus more on inefficient midrange shots.
No. 8 North Carolina vs. No. 9 Wisconsin
Pick: Wisconsin moneyline +105 (wager $100 to win $105)
Underdogs have gone 27-13-3 ATS in 8-9 matchups since 2009, and when the line is within three points, the underdog has covered the spread in 16 of the past 18 8-9 games. Wisconsin is a 1.5-point underdog to North Carolina on the point spread, so why not take a swing on the Badgers winning outright at plus money? Wisconsin was ranked 10th in Pomeroy’s final rankings, 18 spots higher than the Tar Heels, yet is the underdog in this matchup, likely because it lost seven of its final 10 games (all seven losses were to teams seeded either first, second or fourth in the NCAA tournament, however).
Missouri (+2 vs. Oklahoma), Georgia Tech (+3 vs. Loyola) and St. Bonaventure (+1.5 vs. LSU) also are short underdogs in 8-9 matchups this year.
West
No. 5 Creighton vs. No. 12 UC Santa Barbara
The Bluejays rank 14th in adjusted offensive efficiency per Pomeroy’s ratings and all five starters are averaging double-digit points per contest. The Gauchos are also above-average shooters (53 percent effective field goal rate, 57th in the country) with JaQuori McLaughlin leading the way. McLaughlin was named an honorable mention Associated Press all-American on Tuesday after averaging 16.2 points and 5.2 assists in 25 games.
With this much offensive talent there is a 55 percent chance the total points scored could reach 140 points or more.