The US Navy’s effort to field autonomous maritime drones to counter China is sinking under the weight of software breakdowns, contract suspensions, and leadership turmoil, according to documents and people familiar with the effort, as quoted in a Reuters report.
In a test off California, a Saronic-built drone boat stalled before being rammed by a BlackSea Technologies vessel, vaulting over its deck in a mishap caught on video. Weeks earlier, a BlackSea craft accelerated unexpectedly while under tow, capsizing a support boat and throwing its captain overboard.
Both accidents, attributed to software failures and human error, highlight the daunting obstacles in scaling the US Department of Defense’s (DoD) US$1 billion Replicator program, which seeks to deploy swarms of autonomous sea and air drones at costs ranging from hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars each.
The Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) subsequently froze a $20 million software contract with L3Harris, while the US Navy’s drone acquisition office came under scrutiny after the dismissal of Rear Admiral Kevin Smith for loss of confidence in his leadership.
These reversals come as President Donald Trump champions drone swarms as a military priority, citing Ukraine’s use of cheap, remote-controlled sea drones against Russia as proof of concept for the US approach.
Beyond immediate mishaps, structural challenges have stalled the US Navy’s unmanned surface vessel (USV) program. Jordan Spector wrote in Proceedings in April 2025 that the US Navy suffers from poor pace, prioritization and procurement strategy, noting that disproportionate investments in large USVs (LUSVs) leave small and medium USVs (SUSVs and MUSVs) underfunded beyond R&D.
He argued that the US Navy’s acquisition model favors legacy platforms, delaying the integration of transformative systems. Spector added that while the US Navy’s Hybrid Fleet 2045 plan envisions 150 LUSVs, it lacks urgency for near-term deployment, and advisory board recommendations remain unfunded, leaving USV commands confined largely to research roles. Such institutional inertia, he warned, risks undermining competitiveness against China’s rapidly expanding hybrid fleet.
Echoing this view, Jack Rowley wrote in Proceedings in July 2025 that the US Navy must urgently accelerate its hybrid fleet transition to offset shipbuilding costs, crew shortages and mounting global demands.
He cautioned, however, that budget cuts, immature platforms and unvalidated operational concepts threaten progress. Rowley stressed that without prioritizing rapid prototyping, competitive testing and clear mission articulation, the US Navy risks falling further behind in the Indo-Pacific. He argued that survivability, interoperability and deployment readiness must be proven at scale if unmanned systems are to deliver meaningful capability.
China, meanwhile, is moving aggressively on sea drones. In a March 2025 NATO Association of Canada article, Jake Rooke noted that Chinese naval planners see USVs as central to transforming maritime warfare.
Under President Xi Jinping’s directive, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is embedding USVs into its broader strategy of “intelligentization,” emphasizing artificial intelligence, swarm tactics and multidomain precision warfare.
Platforms such as the Marine Lizard, Tianxing-1, Zhu Hai Yun and Jari-USV-A illustrate China’s ambitions in intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR), anti-submarine warfare (ASW) and long-range strike.
According to Rooke, these systems are tailored for gray zone operations, South China Sea dominance and Taiwan contingencies, with Military-Civil Fusion (MCF) enabling a whole-of-nation mobilization to achieve maritime superiority.
Lyle Goldstein, writing for RAND in April 2024, reported that PLAN strategists view USVs as revolutionary for naval warfare, highlighting five key advantages: concealment, low cost, destructive power, autonomous control and modular weaponization.
Some Chinese analysts, he noted, even regard USVs as more threatening than airstrikes, capable of “wolf pack” tactics and scalable deployment.
Goldstein added that Chinese writings advocate multidomain defenses against adversary USVs — combining sensors, perimeter protection and layered strikes with electromagnetic and hypersonic weapons — while Ukraine’s use of sea drones has further spurred Chinese interest in both offensive and defensive roles, particularly around Taiwan.
Yet despite bold rhetoric, China also faces serious hurdles. In a June 2024 report for the Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET), Sam Bresnick wrote that Chinese experts see major roadblocks in applying AI to military drones.
They argue that current AI is narrow and task-specific and lacking in abstract reasoning, predictability and reliable decision-making — qualities essential for trust in autonomy. Such limits, they warn, heighten risks of misjudgment, escalation and automation bias.
Bresnick added that China’s lack of combat experience, reliance on low-fidelity training sets and fragmented bureaucratic management further weaken model development.
For USVs in particular, he noted, poor sensors, fragile maritime communication and inadequate testing standards leave platforms brittle and ill-suited for contested seas.
Conceptual doubts also extend to how China might employ USVs in gray zone operations. In a 2024 Naval War College article, Richard Dunley argued that unmanned vessels lack the symbolic weight and costly signaling function of manned ships.
Traditional deterrence, he said, rests on the risks borne by crews, the financial investment and the reputational stakes of sovereign assets. Without personnel, USVs are treated as expendable equipment, inviting adversaries to interfere or seize them at lower thresholds.
Dunley warned that such deployments risk undermining deterrence and fostering miscalculation, given their ambiguous legal status, weak signaling value and potential to create crisis instability. That recognition has fueled a growing view that unmanned systems cannot replace manned ships outright but must instead be integrated alongside them.
In an October 2024 Washington Post article, retired Admiral James Stavridis argued that hybrid fleets integrating traditional warships with autonomous drones mark the next evolution in naval power.
He wrote that drones bring rapid deployment, reduced personnel risk and expanded surveillance and strike functions, while manned ships provide command, endurance and heavy firepower.
By combining the two, he argued, navies can maintain reach and resilience under budgetary and operational strain — making hybrid fleets a pragmatic path forward in an era where full autonomy remains out of reach.
However, autonomy at sea remains elusive, with both the US and China stalled by fragile technology, untested concepts and institutional drag. For now, sea drones are still more promise than power — but hybrid fleets of manned and unmanned vessels are already emerging as the future, and with them the race to decide who controls tomorrow’s seas.
