Another surprise? My best bets went 2-1 last week, giving everyone a reason for optimism.
Our league-projection formula helps determine how often one team should beat another based on actual and projected win rates. That gives us win probabilities for every game, as well as an implied margin of victory — helpful for picking games against the spread.
San Francisco 49ers (-7) at New York Jets
Pick: San Francisco 49ers -7
San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo completed 19 of his 33 pass attempts for 259 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions in the defending NFC champion’s surprise loss to Arizona last week, but the Jets are dreadful and should give San Francisco a chance to rebound.
New York’s secondary ranked last in Pro Football Focus’s preseason ratings San San Fand should have trouble keeping up with two-time Pro Bowl tight end George Kittle. San Francisco wideout Deebo Samuel was put on injured reserve on Saturday but rookie Brandon Aiyuk should be back and ready to go in Week 2.
Los Angeles Rams (-1) at Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles +1
Philadelphia coughed up a 17-0 lead and gave up 27 unanswered points in Sunday’s loss to the Washington Football Team. Quarterback Carson Wentz struggled and was sacked eight times and threw two interceptions, but injuries played a role in the loss. Philadelphia was without running back Miles Sanders, defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, defensive end Derek Barnett, wideout Alshon Jeffery and right tackle Lane Johnson.
Johnson will reportedly return for Week 2, giving the Eagles’ offensive line some help when they face Aaron Donald, arguably the best pass rusher in the NFL. Johnson was the fourth-highest rated tackle of 2019, per Pro Football Focus, and one of the best run-blocking tackles in the NFL, too.
Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7½)
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -7½
The Steelers’ offense, with Ben Roethlisberger back under center, is already humming along. He completed 21 of 32 passes for three touchdowns and will face a Denver defense that allowed 10 points more than expected based on the down, distance and field position of each play against them in Week 1, per data from TruMedia. Only seven teams were worse in Week 1.
Season best bets record: 2-1.