Who will win the NWSL Championship? Predicting Gotham vs. Washington

More than 180 matches over eight months have finally led to this moment: a 2025 NWSL champion is going to be crowned on Saturday.

The finalists? On one side, an NJ/NY Gotham FC team that won the title two years ago, but snuck into this season’s playoffs as the last seed. On the other, the Washington Spirit, who fell in last year’s final to the Orlando Pride.

Ahead of Saturday’s championship, ESPN contributors Joseph Lowery and Megan Swanick dig into the big storylines — underdogs, Trinity Rodman’s contract, and more — before predicting how it’ll all shake out.

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Underdog: Which team’s spot in the final is the bigger surprise this season?

Lowery: Listen, I hear you Jaedyn Shaw — “underdog, my ass” and all that. All postseason, NJ/NY Gotham has been pushing back on the underdog narrative surrounding the team’s run from the NWSL’s eighth and final playoff spot to Saturday’s final. And yet, here I am, calling NJ/NY Gotham the underdog once more.

Despite their seeding differences, the gap between Gotham and Spirit isn’t a wide one. In fact, without a fully healthy Trinity Rodman, there may not be much of a gap at all. Still, the Spirit have been playing better ball in the playoffs and look like the favorite.

Maybe that’s just fine with Gotham. Only two years removed from his team turning a bottom playoff seed into an NWSL Final victory back in 2023, coach Juan Carlos Amorós has been here before. NJ/NY won’t be phased by me — or anyone — banking on their foes.

Swanick: For me, Gotham is the obvious answer here simply because of who they had to play first in the playoffs.

Gotham are a strong team with some formidable names in their lineup, but they finished the season in the eighth and final playoff spot despite jockeying for a top-four finish in the final weeks. With that, the ’23 champs had to play a record-setting Kansas City Current side that finished the season 21 points clear at the top of the table at their home ground, where they’d yet to lose a game this season. I, and I presume many others, counted them out in the first round.

But they did the unthinkable at CPKC Stadium, then dropped the reigning champions Orlando Pride, in the next round. Looking at the talent in their team it’s not shocking, but the odds did point to a different result.

Player to watch: Which one player do you think may decide the game?

Lowery: While Rosemonde Kouassi won’t be the biggest name suiting up for either side this weekend, she’s been absolutely crucial to the Spirit’s success in 2025. Outside of teammate and striker Gift Monday, no Washington or NJ/NY player with at least 1,000 regular-season minutes averaged more expected goals plus expected assists per game than Kouassi, as per American Soccer Analysis.

A dynamic right-sider with quality service from the wing, the 23-year-old has assisted a goal in each of Washington’s postseason matches so far this year. It’s not just Kouassi’s service that makes her an elite threat — her ability to brilliantly time direct off-ball runs to break in behind the opposing backline and her breakneck speed leaves opposing backlines in shambles.

Especially if Jaedyn Shaw creeps forward up the left wing, Gotham could be left short-handed when it comes time to deal with Kouassi’s mixture of verticality and quality deliveries.

Swanick: Ann-Katrin Berger. The 2024 Goalkeeper of the Year was a finalist again this season after another impressive year for Gotham. For club and country, the 35-year-old keeper has come up big with match-saving moments that gets her team on to the next round, whether that’s seeing Germany to a victory over France at the Euros or Kansas City a few weeks back.

Goalscorers often grab the headlines, but Berger has been key to both of Gotham’s wins in the playoffs. She made seven saves against the Current and a few consequential ones against Orlando, including an incredible save in the dying moments to keep a clean sheet and avoid extra-time. Washington has a formidable cast of goalscorers, but a massive performance from Berger could see Gotham to their second Championship.

Like a script: Which winner would make for a better storyline?

Lowery: Does it get much better than a team making two Cinderella runs in three years?

NJ/NY Gotham turning their status as the lowest-seeded playoff team into a trophy celebration in 2023 was impressive enough. Doing the same thing two years later creates more than enough narrative fodder for me to declare a Gotham victory the more script-like outcome.

Plus, a Gotham victory puts some extra narrative fuel on the Trinity Rodman contract fire. If the Spirit win on Saturday and lose Rodman to a higher bidder, at least they’ll have claimed another NWSL title for their efforts. If they lose on Saturday, they can’t afford to lose Rodman, too, can they?

Swanick: Agree with Joe here. The people crave underdog stories (even if Gotham disagrees that they’re underdogs). Two in three years is almost too kind. Speaking of Gotham disagreeing that they’re underdogs, Jaedyn Shaw, who told reporters, “underdog, my ass” after toppling the Shield winners, has the opportunity to provide an incredible subplot within that underdog tale.

The 20-year-old burst onto the scene as a teenager, unfurling massive performances for club and country, but hit a lull at both ends. But since joining Gotham in September, Shaw has hit a stride. She enters the Championship match with massive performances and goals in each of the team’s postseason games, and especially if she does the same in the final, her journey would be an uplifting story of its own.

Versus: Which on-field battle are you most interested in?

Lowery: While Washington manager Adrián González hasn’t been as rigid as Juan Carlos Amorós with his team’s positioning, the coaches have a bond: they both want the ball. Amorós’ Gotham finished second in possession during the regular season at 53.4%, while the Spirit finished fifth at 52.5%, as per FBref.

Which team, then, will act as the game’s protagonist at a neutral site?

If it’s Gotham, they’re likely to use possession as a means to limit the Spirit’s chances — only the Current allowed less non-penalty xG than NJ/NY in the regular season, based on FBref’s data. If it’s Washington, they’re likely to take risks in possession and push numbers forward — no team generated more non-penalty xG in the regular season than the Spirit.

Both teams want the ball and want to do different things with it. Which team will actually get what they want?

Swanick: Tara McKeown vs. Esther González. Gotham’s Spanish striker finished 2025 with 13 goals and one assist in 23 games, falling just short of Kansas City’s Temwa Chawinga in the race for the Golden Boot. She started Gotham’s last game, but is just returning from injury and has a five-game dry spell with no goals for the ’23 champs.

But Esther can be devastating in big moments, and is no stranger to a trophy-winning goal. The 32-year-old (who was the top scorer at this summer’s Euros) scored the decisive goal in Gotham’s 2023 Championship as well as in their Concacaf W Champions Cup win.

Limiting her while she roams in front of goal will be a team effort. But I’m looking forward to how McKeown, the NWSL’s 2025 Defender of the Year, comports herself in Saturday’s final, as she’ll play a key role in eliminating Esther’s opportunities.

OK, prediction time: Pick the winner and the final score

Lowery: The Spirit should be at least a little worried about leaving themselves overly exposed when they send numbers forward, but I can’t help but give them the edge as the more in-form and more dangerous attacking team. If Trinity Rodman is healthy enough to play a role off the bench yet again, they’ll be able to see things out. I’m going 2-1 in favor of the Washington Spirit.

Swanick: Neither team concedes easily, but I think we see goals from both teams, and a Championship decided by penalties after finishing 1-1 in 120 minutes. Aubrey Kingsbury and Ann-Katrin Berger are both elite goalkeepers — exactly who you want around when penalties come — but I think Gotham pulls it off.