As Israel neared approval of a 60-day ceasefire in Lebanon after more than a year of fighting with the Hezbollah terror group, observers were hopeful the move could help jumpstart moribund truce efforts in the Gaza Strip, where Israel has been battling Hamas in a war that has laid waste to the vast majority of the territory.
Hezbollah had long insisted that it would not agree to a ceasefire until the war in Gaza ends, but it recently dropped that condition.
Israeli, Palestinian and American sources and officials believe the loss of Hezbollah support may push the Gazan terror group to soften its demands, breaking a prolonged deadlock in the negotiations.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was set to convene the high-level security cabinet in Tel Aviv on Tuesday evening to approve the US-proposed ceasefire in Lebanon, an Israeli official told The Times of Israel on Monday.
Lebanese sources told Reuters on Monday that US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron were expected to announce a ceasefire imminently.
A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, the strongest of Iran’s armed proxies, is expected to significantly calm regional tensions that have led to fears of war between Israel and Iran directly.
Hezbollah started attacking Israel on October 8, 2023, saying it was supporting its ally Hamas in its war in Gaza. Some 1,200 people were killed and 251 were seized as hostages in an unprecedented Hamas-led assault launched a day earlier, on October 7, when thousands of Hamas-led terrorists poured through the Gaza border into Israel and rampaged through dozens of southern communities.
Multiple initiatives to reach a deal to halt the Israel-Hamas fighting and return the remaining 101 hostages, mediated by the US, Egypt and Qatar, have fallen through as Hamas has insisted on terms that Israel regards as nonstarters, with Jerusalem occasionally setting new conditions.
Smoke rises from the site of Israeli airstrikes that targeted Beirut’s southern suburbs on November 25, 2024. (AFP)
The Israeli official who spoke with The Times of Israel argued that a ceasefire in Lebanon would help bring about a successful end to the war in Gaza.
“What Hamas wanted was support from Hezbollah and others. Once you cut the connection, you have the ability to reach a deal. It’s a strategic achievement,” said the official. “Hamas is alone.”
The Kan public broadcaster cited an unnamed Palestinian source involved in ceasefire talks with Israel as saying that Hamas no longer feels that Hezbollah is committed to it or the war in Gaza.
The cessation of hostilities in Lebanon “may lead to changes in Hamas’s position regarding the conditions for a hostage deal,” the source was quoted saying.
Brett McGurk, US President Joe Biden’s top envoy to the Mideast, was set to visit Saudi Arabia Tuesday to discuss using a potential ceasefire in Lebanon “as a catalyst” for a subsequent ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza, White House deputy press secretary Andrew Bates told reporters aboard Air Force One.
There has been no official comment on a potential Lebanon ceasefire from Gaza-based leaders of either Hamas or the smaller terror group Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
Nevertheless, a top Hamas official in Lebanon said the group would support the emerging truce, despite Hezbollah’s previous promises to stop the fighting in Lebanon only if the war in Gaza ends.
Hamas official Osama Hamdan speaks during an interview with AFP in Istanbul on September 15, 2024. (Ozan Kose/ AFP)
“Any announcement of a ceasefire is welcome. Hezbollah has stood by our people and made significant sacrifices,” Osama Hamdan, a member of Hamas’s political wing, told the Lebanese broadcaster Al-Mayadeen, which is seen as politically allied with Hezbollah.
Israel’s ongoing military campaign is formally aimed at destroying Hamas’s governance and military capabilities in Gaza, returning the hostages, and safely returning the tens of thousands of displaced Israelis to their homes in the north and near the Gaza border.
Even as its leaders have been eliminated and its military presence in Gaza has been decimated, Hamas has been unwilling to compromise with Israel on its core demand that any deal irreversibly end the war and result in the full withdrawal of all Israeli troops from the Strip.
Israel contends that any deal must free all the hostages and include credible oversight mechanisms that will prevent arms smuggling via the Gaza-Egypt border and from southern Gaza to its northern part. Israel has also been reluctant to say who it envisions will rule Gaza after the war, insisting that neither Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority can have any governance role. Some in the government have been pushing for Israel to maintain a military rule there and reintroduce settlements.
Israel stepped up its offensive on Hezbollah in Lebanon in late September, launching extensive airstrikes and operations that took out most of the group’s leadership, including its longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Israel then launched a ground operation in southern Lebanon with the aim of clearing Hezbollah strongholds in the area and making it safe for evacuated residents of northern Israel to return to their homes.
Lazar Berman contributed to this report.
