As rocket launches multiply and air travel rebounds, researchers have identified an unsettling reality: there’s a 26% chance each year that falling space debris will pass through busy flight corridors, potentially forcing widespread flight disruptions.
The study from the University of British Columbia reveals that while the odds of debris actually striking an aircraft remain low at one in 430,000 annually, the growing frequency of space junk re-entering Earth’s atmosphere is increasingly forcing aviation authorities to make difficult choices about closing airspace.
“The recent explosion of a SpaceX Starship shortly after launch demonstrated the challenges of having to suddenly close airspace,” explains Ewan Wright, lead author and interdisciplinary studies doctoral student at UBC. “The authorities set up a ‘keep out’ zone for aircraft, many of which had to turn around or divert their flight path.”
The research gains particular relevance following a 2022 incident where Spanish and French aviation authorities had to close portions of their airspace as a 20-tonne piece of rocket debris threatened to re-enter the atmosphere over southern Europe.
With 258 successful rocket launches in 2024 and a record 120 uncontrolled rocket debris re-entries last year, the problem is intensifying. More than 2,300 rocket bodies currently orbit Earth, all destined to eventually fall back to the planet.
“But why should authorities have to make these decisions in the first place? Uncontrolled rocket body re-entries are a design choice, not a necessity,” argues Dr. Aaron Boley, associate professor in UBC’s department of physics and astronomy. “The space industry is effectively exporting its risk to airlines and passengers.”
The situation creates a dilemma for aviation authorities: either risk continuing flights when space debris might be falling or face the economic and logistical challenges of route diversions and airspace closures.
A solution exists in the form of controlled re-entries, where rockets are designed to crash safely into remote ocean areas after use. However, implementing this fix requires international cooperation, according to Dr. Michael Byers, a UBC political science professor. “Countries and companies that launch satellites won’t spend the money to improve their rockets designs unless all of them are required to do so,” he notes.
The study particularly highlights the risk to high-traffic areas. Denver, Colorado showed the highest density of air traffic, with approximately one aircraft every 18 square kilometers during peak periods. When examining regions with just 10% of this peak density – similar to the airspace over Vancouver-Seattle – researchers found the 26% annual chance of rocket debris re-entry.
As both space launches and air travel continue to increase, with passenger numbers expected to rise by almost seven percent in 2025, the intersection of aviation safety and space debris presents a growing challenge requiring urgent international attention.
If you found this piece useful, please consider supporting our work with a small, one-time or monthly donation. Your contribution enables us to continue bringing you accurate, thought-provoking science and medical news that you can trust. Independent reporting takes time, effort, and resources, and your support makes it possible for us to keep exploring the stories that matter to you. Together, we can ensure that important discoveries and developments reach the people who need them most.
