An Ontario debate that revealed cracks in Ford’s armour: Denley

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The first debate of the Ontario election had two winners, one loser, and Mike Schreiner, who’s too nice a fella to be called a loser.

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Going into Friday’s event, PC Leader Doug Ford had the simplest task. He had to stick to his message, sound like a premier and not commit any memorable gaffes. Mission accomplished. Ford was usually fact-based, certainly more so than his competitors.

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OK, maybe the Green Party leader’s job was even easier. With two seats and single-digit support in the polls, Schreiner is electorally insignificant, but he was assertive in putting forth his party’s unpopular views. That’s all he had to do. 

Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie had dual challenges: to attempt to establish herself as the main competitor to Ford, while simultaneously distinguishing herself from the NDP. She did well on both fronts. Crombie’s attacks on Ford were pointed, well-aimed, and delivered a way that did not make her seem unlikeable. Unfortunately, as mentioned, her grasp of facts was weaker than Ford’s.

For Ontario NDP leader Marit Stiles, the debate was an exercise in survival. The party’s polling numbers have been in the teens, well below the nearly 24 per cent New Democrats won in the 2022 election. Stiles must regain past supporters to hold on to the title of opposition leader.

She didn’t do herself any favours with her debate performance. It was the first chance most Ontarians have had to see her in action and it was unimpressive. Granted, it’s challenging to sell the idea of government borrowing billions of dollars to help people buy their groceries, but still.

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Where Crombie’s presentation seemed reasonably natural and relatively calm, Stiles, by contrast, appeared over-caffeinated. If she had waved her arms around any more, she’d have taken flight.

Crombie had the clear edge on Stiles and even scored some points on Ford.

Crombie attacked Ford’s underperforming housing plan by personalizing the issue, saying she wants her own kids to be able to afford homes. Crombie touted her plan to eliminate development charges, with the province taking over the cost of growth-enabling infrastructure. She would also scrap land-transfer taxes for seniors, first-time buyers and not-for-profits.

This is the Liberals’ strongest suit in this election. Crombie’s plans would lower costs for new home buyers. That has political appeal, but the costs would be passed on to provincial taxpayers — and the plan is uncosted.

In his response, Ford could only pivot to talking about tariffs.

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Crombie also criticized the province’s lack of economic diversification and the huge amount of money Ford has committed to electric vehicle battery plants. She questioned Ford’s plan to dismantle homeless encampments, asking where the people in them are supposed to go.

Crombie concluded by saying “You can’t trust him because he doesn’t deliver. He doesn’t do what he says he’s going to do. Sure it sounds folksy and kind of nice, but it’s not real, it’s not true.” She went on to ding Ford for not keeping his promises to end hallway medicine or cut taxes or build huge numbers of homes.

Unfortunately for Crombie, she also missed the mark too often. The Liberal leader claimed there are “200,000 people without a home in Ontario.” The real number is 80,000. She and the other leaders went on at length about the supposedly terrible downloading Ford has imposed on the municipalities, driving up people’s property taxes. Sorry, but the downloading was done by former premier Mike Harris, not Doug Ford. The premier said there has been no downloading. In fact, Ford has uploaded billions of dollars in costs from municipalities to the provincial government, particularly for transit.

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Crombie also weakened her case on housing by saying, “Under Doug Ford there is no home-building happening.” Surely she must know that’s untrue. Ontario’s housing starts last year, while well short of provincial targets, were still the largest in Canada.

Despite all of that, it’s easy to see why the PCs have focused their attention on Crombie in this election. She has a long way to go to become an actual threat, but for a first debate performance, she did well. The caveat — and it’s a big one — is her presentation of myths as facts, all while calling Ford a liar. Her team might want to do a reality check before the second debate on Monday.

Up until now, Ford has had an easy election campaign. Mostly, he’s been content to repeat his “protect Ontario” slogan and attack U.S. President Donald Trump over his tariff threats. Crombie showed that Ford has weaknesses, but she doesn’t have much time left to capitalize on them.

National Post

randalldenley1@gmail.com

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