VICTORIA, Texas-: Tonight: Partly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay above average. Low: 72 degrees. Winds: SE 5-10 mph. A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms with patchy fog after 3 am.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay above average. High: 87 degrees. Winds: SE 5-15/G20 mph. A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms after 11 am with patchy fog before 8 am.
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay above average. Low: 71 degrees. Winds: SE 10 mph. A 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms after 1am.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy skies with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average. High: 84 degrees. Winds: S 15-20/G25 mph. A 70% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms before 1 pm. Winds will switch from out of the south to out of the northwest.
Wednesday Night: Clear skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average. Low: 56 degrees. Winds: NW 10-15 mph. A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Extended Forecast: Thursday through Tuesday:
Thursday: Sunny with breezy winds while temperatures stay around average. High: 80/53 degrees. Winds: NW 10-15/G20 mph. A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Friday: Sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average. High: 77/49 degrees. Winds: NW 10-20 mph. A 10% chance of early scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday: Sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average. High: 81/52 degrees. Winds: NW 5 mph. A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday: Partly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average. High: 84/60 degrees. Winds: SE 10 mph. A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Monday: Partly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average. High: 85/61 degrees. Winds: ES 10 mph. A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average. High: 78/53 degrees. Winds: NE 10 mph. A 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Synopsis: As temperatures drop overnight to around dewpoint temperatures on Monday night, then there will be areas fog due to dry upper levels, light winds and moisture near the surface.
In the long term for the extended period, days 3 to 7, Tuesday through Sunday, Hurricane Rick remnants will track northeastward across South Texas on Tuesday and Tuesday night as a trough pushes up from Mexico, bringing in copious moisture, meeting up with Gulf moisture and creating lift for potential rainfall (moisture levels from 1.5″ to 2″).
The rain chances will be greatest over the eastern half of our viewing area (most moisture and energy present). Coverage will start off as isolated Tuesday morning but will increase in coverage to scattered in the afternoon, which will last into the evening.
During the middle of the week a trough will push through the central portion of the United States. This weather feature should push a cold front across the area on Wednesday morning. Showers will be prevalent along the cold front that will be stretched out across the eastern half of the viewing area as the line passes through the area. The best rain chances will be over the Victoria Crossroads while the Brush Country stays on the dry side.
As the cold front passes through the viewing area, cooler, dry winds out of the northwest will move in but will diminish as moisture levels fall below 0.5″. Wednesday through Saturday will be cooler, dry and with mostly sunny to sunny skies the rest of the week. High temperatures will range from the mid 70’s to the lower 80’s while nighttime temperatures drop down into the 40’s and 50’s.
Winds will pick up (20-25 mph and 20 mph winds at 20 feet) behind the front as it passes through the area on Wednesday and Thursday. Breezy winds out of the northwest could be a concern for fire weather conditions during the afternoon on Wednesday and Thursday as relative humidity levels drop to 10-20 percent across the west and 20-40 percent across the east. Winds will be on the decrease for Friday, which should eliminate fire weather concerns for Friday.
Low soil moistures (30 percent) will allow for fire weather concerns on Wednesday with better chances for Thursday (Coastal Plains) as winds become stronger. As winds remain offshore, and skies remain clear, then dry conditions and below average temperatures will dominate through the rest of the week.
High pressure moves back into the area Thursday night and Friday that could allow for the coldest night of the week as overnight temperatures drop into the mid 50’s as the skies above stay clear. Again, patchy fog is possible for Tuesday morning as dewpoint and ambient temperatures get very close, while winds remain on the last side (dry mid-levels).
Coastal flooding could be a problem due to high water levels (2 feet above sea level) on Tuesday night. Winds will shift to the northeast due to Frontal Passage while airflow out of the Gulf (south) returns on Saturday night.
Tropics: A large area of high-pressure in the Atlantic Ocean is stifling any storm development for at least the next 2-days. Plus, the high and the upper-level winds ended the storms we had a few weeks ago. Tropical Storm Rick in the Eastern Pacific (60 mph winds, moving west north at 10 mph) is moving north through Mexico. Rick will bring life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to spread across the parts of Mexico through Tuesday. This rainfall will likely produce dangerous flash flooding and landslides.
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