BANGKOK – Thailand’s Constitutional Court has ruled Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra breached ethical standards, toppling her government after barely a year in office and ushering in a new era of uncertainty in the kingdom’s ever-topsy-turvy politics.
The nine-member court ruled 6-3 that Paetongtarn’s leaked telephone call with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen, in which she referred to a top Thai military official as “opposed” to her government and appeared to kowtow to the ex-strongman, violated ethical codes required of public officials.
The case was brought by a group of 36 senators amid politically charged opposition allegations echoed in media that Paetongtarn had compromised national interests in favor of her family’s personal ties to Hun Sen, who once sheltered Thaksin’s exiled and at times anti-royal Red Shirt movement in Phnom Penh.
The decision delivers a major, if not fatal, blow to the Shinawatra clan’s dramatic political resurgence and dynastic ambitions – though some suggest he could put forward his other, more reclusive daughter, Pintongta, at future elections. It marks the fourth time in nearly two decades that a Shinawatra family member has been knocked from power – either by a military coup or court ruling.
The decision also casts immediate doubt on the status and durability of the reconciliation deal Thaksin is widely believed to have struck with the palace – one that allowed for the coup-ousted, criminally convicted ex-leader to return home from 15 years of self-exile under a royal pardon in exchange for his overt obeisance to the crown.
Thaksin will have been wrongfooted by the conservative court’s ruling, judging by his pre-verdict comments to media predicting his daughter’s acquittal. Quoted by the local The Nation, Thaksin suggested that a “special signal” would be sent to the court, implying a message from above, which he may have been led to believe but evidently wasn’t delivered. He may have also been assured by his acquittal last week in a lese majeste case dating back to 2015.
That may explain why members of the ruling Peua Thai party appeared so confident Paetongtarn would survive the ruling, though analysts in Bangkok cautioned beforehand that Thaksin has often overplayed his hand since returning from exile – including comments suggesting the conservative establishment needs him to keep the progressive People’s Party at bay. Many believe the anti-establishment party would sweep elections if held now.
He will likely be less confident in putting forward the party’s last eligible prime ministerial candidate – the 77-year-old and somewhat obscure Chaikasem Nitisiri, a former attorney general who has recently suffered from health issues – to replace Paetongtarn and hold Peua Thai’s already wobbly coalition together.
Thaksin initially put forward Chaikasem’s name after a similar ethics ruling unseated Srettha Thavisin from the premiership last August, but withdrew it in favor of his daughter a day later amid criticism over Chaikasem’s past position on reforming the lese majeste law and rumors of a call from above.
At the time, it was well-known that Thaksin and party stalwarts felt the political novice Paetongtarn, who was pregnant on the 2023 campaign trail and never held a political office, wasn’t ready to lead the nation, which today’s ruling on her mishandled phone call with Hun Sen has now made fatally clear.
The People’s Party, previously known as the Move Forward party, was dissolved last August precisely for advocating dilution of the lese majeste law. A similar case is now pending against 44 Move Forward members – 25 of whom are currently serving in parliament – for their 2021 push to reform the law in parliament.
If found guilty, they, too, face bans from politics, in what would be another targeted blow to the upstart party that won the 2023 election, sweeping all of Bangkok, on a radical reform platform targeting military, monopolist and monarchal interests (as well as its then-PM candidate’s boyish good looks.)
All eyes are now on opposition Bhumjaithai Party leader Anutin Charnvirakul, the construction tycoon-turned-politician who brought “medical” marijuana to Thailand. Anutin broke bitterly with Thaksin’s Peua Thai and pulled out of the ruling coalition in June after losing control of the powerful Interior Ministry.
The schism broke just weeks after Anutin, in what officials say was a break from usual diplomatic protocol as interior minister, escorted King Maha Vajiralongkorn to Bhutan on his first official overseas visit as monarch – seen by some observers as a nod to their known longstanding personal rapport.
Reports suggest Anutin was maneuvering behind the scenes in meetings with both coalition and opposition party power brokers, as well as a senior palace official, before the verdict to build support for his potential bid for the premiership if Paetongtarn fell.
That included a meeting this week with billionaire Gulf Energy founder Sarath Ratanavadi, which Anutin tweeted then abruptly deleted for unclear reasons. Sarath is widely linked to a business-minded faction of the pro-military United Thai Nation party, now in coalition with Peua Thai, but whose 36 MPs were reportedly split on whether to stay or go on even before today’s ruling.
He also met with General Prawit Wongsuwan, the coup-maker leader of the military-linked Palang Pracharat Party that won elections in 2019 and massively underperformed expectations at the 2023 polls with just 40 seats. Anutin reportedly told Prawit he would serve only six months as prime minister before calling snap elections, over year before they are legally due in mid-2027, if PPRP backed his bid.
More significantly, Anutin reportedly made a beeline for the People’s Party immediately after today’s ruling. The People’s Party, now with 143 seats in the 500-seat parliament but currently without an eligible prime minister candidate, has hinted it could consider aligning with Bhumjaithai if it prioritizes constitutional reform.
The question now is how threatened Thaksin feels in the wake of today’s ruling and Anutin’s shadow moves to blow up Peua Thai’s coalition and derail Chaikasem’s bid. Until now, Thaksin was seen to hold a trump card of realigning with the People’s Party, which—at least historically—his Peua Thai shared ideological ground before trading in their red shirts for yellow, should the royalist establishment renege on their deal.
Time is already running down on Thaksin to make that assessment with a critical September 9 Supreme Court ruling that will determine whether his six-month stay at a VIP police hospital suite on legally contested medical grounds should count toward his commuted prison sentence, which was reduced from eight years to one by his royal pardon.
Crucially, Thaksin is required to appear in the court for that verdict’s reading, which is ripe with symbolism from the previous monarch’s righteous reign and could order his return to prison. And unlike in the past, the Cambodian border is no longer an open – or likely welcoming – escape route if he determines the deal he thought he had is no longer in place.
