The New England Patriots will try to extend their dominance of the Indianapolis Colts on Saturday night when they visit Lucas Oil Stadium for an NFL Week 15 matchup. The Patriots (9-4) come in on a seven-game win streak and have beaten the Colts in eight straight meetings. Indianapolis (7-6) has won four of its past five and both teams come in rested after getting their byes in Week 14. An efficient New England offense led by rookie quarterback Mac Jones has been a strong complement for the NFL’s top scoring defense. The Colts, meanwhile, count on NFL rushing leader Jonathan Taylor.
Kickoff from Indianapolis is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. Indianapolis is a 2.5-point favorite in the latest Patriots vs. Colts odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the Over-Under for total points scored is 45. Before you make any Colts vs. Patriots picks, you need to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 15 of the 2021 season on an incredible 132-96 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has broken down Saturday night’s Colts vs. Patriots matchup from every angle and just released its picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are some betting lines and trends for Patriots vs. Colts:
- Patriots vs. Colts spread: Indianapolis -2.5
- Patriots vs. Colts: 45 points
- Patriots vs. Colts money line: New England +120, Indianapolis -140
- NE: Patriots are 12-6-0 after having a week off since 2011
- IND: Colts are 6-3-1 against the spread in their last 10 games off a bye week
Featured Game | Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots
Why the Colts can cover
The home team is 5-1 against the spread in the past six meetings between the teams, and Jonathan Taylor’s performance has been the difference the past 10 weeks. The Colts started 0-3, but the second-year running back has topped 100 yards in all seven wins since then and has NFL-highs in rushing yards (1,348) and rushing TDs (16). He is averaging 5.6 yards per carry and is second on the team with 36 catches for another 336 yards. The offensive line is opening huge holes, and QB Carson Wentz has been sacked 22 times while throwing just five interceptions.
Wentz, who was sacked 50 times and threw 22 picks with the Eagles last season, has 2,948 passing yards and 22 TDs. He has plenty of weapons, including big-play wideout Michael Pittman (13.2 yards per catch) and possession man Zach Pascal (35 catches). Tight end Jack Doyle (27 catches) and running back Nyheim Hines (32) are excellent safety valves. Indy is 6-2 against the spread in non-division games this season, and the defense allows just 21.8 points per game (ninth in NFL). Linebacker Darius Leonard (two interceptions, two fumble recoveries) is the heart of the unit.
Why the Patriots can cover
New England has topped 30 points in nine consecutive matchups with the Colts and has covered the spread in all seven games on its win streak. The defense’s only weakness appears to be against the run (19th in NFL), but it has allowed more than 100 yards once in the past five games. It has allowed one rushing TD while allowing just 7.2 points per game over those five games. Cornerback J.C. Jackson is second in the NFL with seven interceptions as the Patriots have forced 26 turnovers overall.
The Pats are 5-1 against the spread on the road this season. They can get after the quarterback, posting 32 sacks, led by Matthew Judon’s 12.5. Fellow linebackers Kyle Van Noy (four sacks) and Don’ta Hightower (52 tackles) join Judon as the heart of the defense. Wentz has a history of making mistakes under pressure, and the Pats have 13 sacks in the past four games. Jones completes more than 70 percent of his passes with 2,869 yards, 16 TDs and eight interceptions.
How to make Patriots vs. Colts picks
The model is leaning Under on the point total, with the model suggesting neither quarterback will reach 225 passing yards. It also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only get the model’s Colts vs. Patriots picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Colts vs. Patriots on Saturday? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Colts vs. Patriots spread you should be all over Saturday, all from the model on a 132-96 roll on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.
