The Philippines is hoping that China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) can finalize their Code of Conduct for the South China Sea while it holds the bloc’s rotating chair next year, its foreign secretary said yesterday.
Theresa Lazaro, who took up her post in a cabinet reshuffle in July, said that the Philippines would propose convening meetings more frequently – possibly weekly – in order to expedite negotiations.
“I think there is already a sense among ASEAN and China that a code of conduct will be concluded,” Lazaro told a press conference yesterday, as per Reuters. “It is indeed our intention and I think it is also the aspiration of all of ASEAN and even China to finish and to come up with the code.”
The Code is intended to reduce the risk of conflict in the South China Sea, where China’s expansive “nine-dash line” maritime claim clashes with those of four ASEAN member states: Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Brunei. Indonesia does not officially consider itself a party to the dispute, but Beijing’s claim also overlaps with a portion of Indonesia’s Exclusive Economic Zone.
The COC has been a perennial agenda item for China and ASEAN since 2002, when the two sides signed the non-binding Declaration of Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) that pledged to “enhance favorable conditions for a peaceful and durable solution of differences and disputes among countries concerned.” Specifically, the DOC stated that the adoption of a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea would “further promote peace and stability in the region” and agreed to work toward this goal.
Formal negotiations opened in 2018, but progress since then has slowed, as frictions between China and rival South China Sea claimant states, including the Philippines, have intensified. As Joanne Lin and Pou Sothirak wrote back in June, “negotiations have been bogged down by strategic ambiguity, asymmetries of power, and fundamental differences in legal interpretations and national interests.”
In July 2023, ASEAN and China adopted the Guidelines for Accelerating the Early Conclusion of an Effective and Substantive Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, promising to finalize the Code within three years, i.e., by July 2026. Since then, the need for such an agreement has only intensified as China has increased the intensity and frequency of its incursions into the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone, resulting in a string of clashes and confrontations between the two nations’ coast guards.
The chance of the Code being finalized in 2026 remains unclear. Earlier this year, under Malaysia’s chairmanship, ASEAN and China completed the third and final reading of the COC’s Single Draft Text during a meeting in Jakarta in February, after first and second readings in July 2019 and in July 2023, respectively. Malaysia has also chaired meetings in Manila in April, Kuching in August, Singapore in September, and a final round in China this month.
However, several important issues of disagreement remain. The Philippines, which has borne the brunt of China’s assertive behavior in the South China Sea over the past decade, insists that the agreement should be legally binding. This is predictably opposed by China, which also rejected the 2016 arbitral tribunal ruling that found most of its claims unlawful under international maritime law. Beijing has also proposed banning joint military drills with countries outside Southeast Asia and limiting oil and gas exploration to partnerships within the region.
The fact that next year’s ASEAN chairmanship will be held by the Philippines, which has strengthened its defense cooperation with the United States, Japan, Australia, and other partners in response to China’s aggressive behavior, likely further complicates matters. Over the past few years, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has expressed his frustration with the pace of COC negotiations, at the same time that he has publicly criticized Beijing’s ongoing “harassment and intimidation” of Philippine vessels.
During last month’s 47th ASEAN Summit, Marcos criticized the “dangerous maneuvers and coercive use of tools and equipment to interfere with or obstruct legitimate and routine Philippine activities in [our own] maritime zones and airspace.” During the East Asia Summit, he condemned China’s recent declaration of a nature reserve at Scarborough Shoal.
Marcos and his administration continue to express optimism that the COC will be concluded during Manila’s ASEAN chairmanship. Last month, the Philippine leader told the Malaysian state news agency Bernama that the Philippines’ chairmanship was a “great opportunity to finally get the COC agreed upon, signed, and delivered.” But given the uncertain state of the negotiations, the Philippines is likely to view its external defense partnerships as the most realistic means of safeguarding its sovereignty in the South China Sea.
