While Poilievre paints a “terrifying” picture of societal breakdown by 2040, a closer examination reveals a document designed to explore potential future scenarios, not predict inevitable outcomes.
The report, “Future Lives: Social Mobility in Question,” produced by Policy Horizons, a government foresight organization, explores a scenario where downward social mobility becomes more prevalent.
It posits a future where traditional pathways to advancement, like post-secondary education, become less reliable, and economic disparities widen.
Poilievre, however, has translated this nuanced analysis into a stark warning against a fourth Liberal term, claiming it forecasts “a total meltdown, a societal breakdown.”
The reality, as outlined by Policy Horizons, is far more complex. The report is a thought experiment, a tool for policymakers to consider potential challenges and opportunities arising from shifting social and economic trends. It’s not a prediction, but rather a framework for strategic planning. The report explores a future where factors like artificial intelligence, housing affordability, and changing labour markets could impact social mobility.
It considers both potential negative outcomes, such as increased economic insecurity and social stratification, and potential positive adaptations, like a shift towards alternative economic models and a redefinition of “prosperity.”
“It is not a forecast nor a commentary on current or future policies,” emphasized Mila Roy, a spokesperson for Policy Horizons, in a statement to CBC News. “Thinking through possible disruptions when developing policies, programs and strategies could help seize opportunities, navigate impacts and minimize risks.”
The report’s authors explicitly state that the scenario presented is “neither the desired nor the preferred future,” but a plausible one.
They acknowledge that the future may not be as dire as the scenario described, but stress the importance of exploring potential challenges to inform policy development.
