A new poll again shows a tight race in North Carolina between President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden as Election Day nears.
The Meredith College poll of 705 registered voters in North Carolina conducted from Sept. 18-22 found Trump and Biden are “essentially tied” — in line with other polling conducted this month that shows the two neck and neck in the battleground state.
Of those polled, 45.7% favored Biden and 45.4% favored Trump when asked which candidate they are most likely to vote for. Another 6.1% said they don’t know.
The poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The credibility interval was used to “account for uncertainty inherent in any sample-based research design” as “unlike a traditional random digit-dial telephone survey, online surveys do not have traditional margin of errors,” according to the poll.
The Meredith poll found Republicans strongly favor Trump while the same is true of Democrats and Biden. But unaffiliated voters “break almost evenly” at 43.1% for Trump and 39.8% for Biden.
The race between Republican U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis and Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham is also close, the poll found, with Cunningham up 43.1% to 41.8%. But Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, has maintained a double-digit lead over his Republican challenger, Lt. Governor Dan Forest, the poll found.
The poll used an online sample from the market research firm Dynata.
“Participants were recruited into the sample by Dynata and received small amounts of compensation in exchange for their opinions,” the poll’s methodology says. “The survey was not an open link, posted on social media, but rather was by direct invitation to a very large statewide pool of people who agree to take online surveys.”
A tight presidential race in North Carolina
As of Sept. 28, FiveThirtyEight’s average of polls shows Biden ahead of Trump in North Carolina by a thin margin: 47.5% to 46.4%.
Three other September polls listed on FiveThirtyEight, a political analysis site, show the candidates tied in the state.
▪ A Sept. 11-16 Ipsos poll of 1,005 adults shows them both at 47% with a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
▪ A Sept. 10-13 SurveyUSA poll of 750 North Carolina adults found the same at a credibility interval of plus or minus 5.6 percentage points.
▪ An Aug. 28-Sept. 8 Beneson Strategy Group poll of 1,600 likely voters in North Carolina found the two tied at 48% with a margin of error between plus or minus 2.5 percentage points and 2.8 percentage points.
North Carolina as a battleground state
Nationally, FiveThirtyEight’s average shows Biden ahead of Trump 50.1% to 43.2%.
But North Carolina is considered a key battleground state in the 2020 election, with 15 electoral votes up for grabs.
Trump and Vice President Mike Pence have made several trips to the Tar Heel state in the past month. Biden also visited last week, and vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris is visiting Monday, The News & Observer reports.
North Carolina in 2016 went for Trump, who got 49.8% of the states vote compared to former Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s 46.2%, according to Ballotpedia.
Polling also showed a tight race at this time in 2016. On Sept. 28, 2016, Trump was ahead of Clinton by 0.3 percentage points, according to an average from RealClearPolitics.
The state went for former Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney in 2012 and for then-candidate Barack Obama, a Democrat, in 2008.