Poll: Only 19% back coalition’s IDF draft bill; 54% think it won’t lead to Haredi service

Fewer than a fifth of Israelis support the Netanyahu coalition’s planned new IDF draft law, a TV poll found on Friday. The bill is still being finalized but is widely expected to preserve the decades-long exemption of most ultra-Orthodox males from military or any other national service.

Forty-seven percent of respondents to the Channel 12 poll said they opposed the government’s planned new draft law, while just 19% of respondents said they supported it, 13% said they had no opinion and 21% said they hadn’t heard of it.

Asked what they thought the result of the planned law would be, 54% said “evasion of the IDF draft by the ultra-Orthodox,” 20% said “IDF service by the ultra-Orthodox” and 26% said they didn’t know.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ultra-Orthodox coalition partners have threatened to topple the government if it doesn’t pass the draft law. Former defense minister Yoav Gallant, whom Netanyahu fired in November in part over the ex-general’s opposition to the law, announced on Wednesday that he would resign from the Knesset partly in protest over it.

Asked whom they trust more to cater to the nation’s interests, Netanyahu or Gallant, 41% of respondents to the Channel 12 survey said Gallant, as opposed to 33% who said Netanyahu. Another 19% said neither, and 7% said they didn’t know.

Asked why Netanyahu had fired Gallant, 48% said he did so to enable the passage of the law enshrining Haredi non-service in the IDF, while 40% said for “professional reasons.”

Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara said Thursday that legislation being written to deal with the issue of Haredi enlistment must include sanctions against draft dodgers, and warned Defense Minister Israel Katz against trying to pass a bill that does not account for Israel’s changed security needs following Hamas’s October 7, 2023, onslaught.

While coalition members have often stated that the IDF is not capable of absorbing the estimated 70,000 Haredi males currently eligible for service, she wrote that the IDF is capable of absorbing 4,800 Haredi males by July 2025, that it would be able to absorb 20% more than that number over the following 12 months, and that after July 2026, “it is expected that there will be no limits” on the number of Haredi males it could absorb into the ranks.

In a landmark decision in June, the High Court ruled unanimously that the government must draft ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students into the military, since there was no longer any legal framework to continue the decades-long practice of granting them blanket exemptions from army service. Since then, the government has been trying to agree on legislation to regulate Haredi enlistment in a manner that would satisfy both the ultra-Orthodox parties and the court.

Ultra-Orthodox coalition parties are demanding legislation that would see some increased enlistment but would broadly maintain the widescale exemption from IDF or other national service for ultra-Orthodox men. Netanyahu, whose governing majority depends on the support of the United Torah Judaism and Shas parties, has been seeking to meet their demand, in the face of bitter and growing political and public opposition, including from some members of his own Likud party.

After Netanyahu

The survey also found that Justice Minister Yariv Levin is the most popular candidate among supporters of the government to succeed Netanyahu when his time ends at the helm of the Likud party. Among all respondents, Gallant is the preferred option.

Asked who should succeed Netanyahu atop Likud, Levin, architect of the government’s contentious plan to overhaul the judiciary, received the support of 6% of all respondents, including 14% of those who support the government. Gallant was supported by 15% of all respondents, including 7% of government voters.

Meanwhile, Economy Minister Nir Barkat was supported by 9% of all respondents, including 11% of pro-government respondents; Defense Minister Katz was supported by 6% of all respondents, including 10% of government supporters; Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar, who returned to the Likud this week four years after forming the breakaway New Hope party, was supported by 5% of all respondents, including 5% of government supporters; Yuli Edelstein, chair of the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee who, like Gallant, has expressed reservations about the military draft law, was supported by 4% of all respondents, including 3% of government supporters; Agriculture Minister Avi Dichter was supported by 3% of all respondents, including 3% of government supporters; Energy Minister Eli Cohen is supported by 2% of all respondents, including 3% of government supporters; Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana was supported by 1% of all respondents, including 2% of government supporters; and Transportation Minister Miri Regev received 0% support from pro- and anti-government respondents alike.

Twenty-one percent of respondents, including 16% of government supporters, said they wanted someone other than the above politicians to lead the Likud post-Netanyahu; and 28%, including 26% of government supporters, said they didn’t know who they wanted to lead the party after Netanyahu.

Dismiss Ben Gvir

The poll also found that a majority of the public thinks Netanyahu should fire National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, whose revolt against a crucial coalition budget bill this week forced the 75-year-old premier to come to the Knesset to vote for the bill, leaving the hospital less than two days after undergoing prostate removal surgery. Ben Gvir has been voting against the coalition over his demand for a larger budget for the police force, which he oversees as national security minister.

Fifty-nine percent said Netanyahu should fire Ben Gvir over his conduct, while 24% disagreed and 17% said they didn’t know. Among government supporters, the result was roughly tied, with 38% saying Netanyahu should fire Ben Gvir, 38% saying he shouldn’t and 21% saying they didn’t know.

Asked what motivated Ben Gvir’s vote against the government this week, 60% of respondents said the vote was politically motivated, 21% said it was professionally motivated and 19% said they didn’t know.

Meanwhile, continuing the trend of previous weeks, the poll found Netanyahu is seen as a better fit for the role of premier than all major rivals but one — former prime minister Naftali Bennett, whose lead over Netanyahu is slimmer than it was in recent polls.

In a match-up with Opposition Chief Yair Lapid, 40% said they preferred Netanyahu for the role, as opposed to 24% who preferred Lapid, while 32% said neither and 4% said they didn’t know. Against National Unity chief Benny Gantz, Netanyahu received 38% support as opposed to Gantz’s 28%, while 29% said neither and 5% said they didn’t know.

By contrast, Bennett inched past Netanyahu, scoring 37% support to the incumbent’s 36%, while 22% said neither and 5% said they didn’t know.

Elections now

A majority of respondents also supported holding snap elections.

Israel’s next election is set for October 2026, but critics of the government have demanded to move it up, arguing that the government must re-seek its public mandate after failing to prevent thousands of Hamas-led terrorists from storming southern Israel on October 7, 2023, to kill some 1,200 people and take 251 hostages, sparking the war in Gaza.

Asked when they think the next election should take place, 55% of respondents to the Channel 12 poll said the vote should be held “as soon as possible,” while 39% said it should be held on its scheduled date and 6% said they didn’t know.

The poll was conducted by Mano Geva’s Midgam polling company in cooperation with the iPanel online research firm. Channel 12 did not provide a sample size or margin of error.