Vietnam has recently unveiled extremely ambitious plans to scale up liquefied natural gas (LNG) power generation, aiming to add over 22.5 GW by 2030 to meet local demand but more as a diplomatic overture to the United States to ease trade tensions. But the energized rhetoric risks outpacing reality.
A recent IEEFA briefing underscores a hard limit often omitted from high-level discourse: the severe global shortage of gas turbines. Leading manufacturers GE Vernova, Siemens Energy and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries are now operating with backlog orders that have pushed delivery timelines to 7–8 years or more. Their expansion plans are unlikely to ease wait times significantly in the medium term.
For Vietnam, this bottleneck is not hypothetical. While two LNG projects have announced turbine contracts, they have yet to secure all the required agreements to close the deals. Absent those, construction cannot fully proceed. Meanwhile, IEEFA estimates Vietnam may miss its 2030 combined gas + LNG target by approximately 25.2 GW.
Political signaling over technical feasibility
Hanoi’s public pledges, such as memoranda of understanding with US LNG suppliers, may be more symbolic than substantive. US and international audiences are well aware of the structural constraints in the LNG power chain. The IEEFA report suggests Vietnam’s announcements risk being interpreted as diplomatic signals rather than binding commitments.
Even if Vietnam manages to finalize turbine deals today, the global lead time means the earliest meaningful new LNG plants could only enter service in 2033 or beyond. That’s far beyond the 2030 horizon that many of these plans target.
IEEFA also notes that delays in gas and LNG power projects may inadvertently accelerate the uptake of cheaper renewables and battery storage, altering the energy mix trajectory in Asia.
For Vietnam, this could mean the window for aggressive LNG expansion might narrow as renewables become increasingly cost-competitive. There are many reasons Vietnam’s 2030 LNG target is unrealistic, namely:
- From a baseline of 1.6 GW (Nhon Trach 3 & 4), scaling to 22.5 GW in five years would be unprecedented.
- The Nghi Son LNG project (1.5 GW) remains mired in procedural, financial and contractual uncertainties.
- The turbine supply constraint, as highlighted by IEEFA, imposes an unavoidable time lag even for the most prepared investors.
- Ambitious projects (e.g. by Vingroup) may attract attention and financing narratives, but thus far none seem to have convincingly surmounted the technical and contractual mountain.
- The gas-fired power target of 15 GW also faces similar constraints; observers expect only ~10 GW might be realistically realized by 2030.
- Combined, gas + LNG targets reach 37 GW by 2030 — but the plausible outcome is closer to perhaps 12–15 GW in a best-case scenario.
Diplomatic theater, domestic risk
In the short term, Vietnam’s LNG pledges may serve to assuage US pressure over the two sides’ trade imbalance, where Vietnam has among the largest surpluses of any nation worldwide. But such promises, if not backed by delivery capacity, risk eroding credibility with foreign investors and governments.
Domestically, capital may be misallocated toward projects that cannot realistically deliver. Political narratives that overpromise energy abundance could set expectations that lead to disappointment and skepticism.
The IEEFA analysis confirms what insiders and skeptics have long argued: Vietnam’s LNG ambitions, while politically attractive, are structurally constrained by global turbine shortages, financing bottlenecks and lead times.
Even under optimistic assumptions, new LNG plants are unlikely to come online before 2033, leaving the 2030 targets out of reach.
Vietnam would thus be better served by recalibrating its goals, prioritizing hybrid models with renewables and storage, and signaling credibility rather than hyperbole. In the politics of energy and diplomacy, illusions may win headlines — but they won’t generate kilowatt-hours.
Nguyen Ngoc Nhu Quynh, also known as Mother Mushroom, is a Vietnamese writer, human rights commentator and former political prisoner based in Texas, United States. She is the founder of WEHEAR, an independent initiative focusing on Southeast Asian politics, human rights and economic transparency.
