• Education
    • Higher Education
    • Scholarships & Grants
    • Online Learning
    • School Reforms
    • Research & Innovation
  • Lifestyle
    • Travel
    • Food & Drink
    • Fashion & Beauty
    • Home & Living
    • Relationships & Family
  • Technology & Startups
    • Software & Apps
    • Startup Success Stories
    • Startups & Innovations
    • Tech Regulations
    • Venture Capital
    • Artificial Intelligence
    • Cybersecurity
    • Emerging Technologies
    • Gadgets & Devices
    • Industry Analysis
  • About us
  • Contact
  • Advertise with Us
  • Privacy & Policy
Today Headline
  • Home
  • World News
    • Us & Canada
    • Europe
    • Asia
    • Africa
    • Middle East
  • Politics
    • Elections
    • Political Parties
    • Government Policies
    • International Relations
    • Legislative News
  • Business & Finance
    • Market Trends
    • Stock Market
    • Entrepreneurship
    • Corporate News
    • Economic Policies
  • Science & Environment
    • Space Exploration
    • Climate Change
    • Wildlife & Conservation
    • Environmental Policies
    • Medical Research
  • Health
    • Public Health
    • Mental Health
    • Medical Breakthroughs
    • Fitness & Nutrition
    • Pandemic Updates
  • Sports
    • Football
    • Basketball
    • Tennis
    • Olympics
    • Motorsport
  • Entertainment
    • Movies
    • Music
    • TV & Streaming
    • Celebrity News
    • Awards & Festivals
  • Crime & Justice
    • Court Cases
    • Cybercrime
    • Policing
    • Criminal Investigations
    • Legal Reforms
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • World News
    • Us & Canada
    • Europe
    • Asia
    • Africa
    • Middle East
  • Politics
    • Elections
    • Political Parties
    • Government Policies
    • International Relations
    • Legislative News
  • Business & Finance
    • Market Trends
    • Stock Market
    • Entrepreneurship
    • Corporate News
    • Economic Policies
  • Science & Environment
    • Space Exploration
    • Climate Change
    • Wildlife & Conservation
    • Environmental Policies
    • Medical Research
  • Health
    • Public Health
    • Mental Health
    • Medical Breakthroughs
    • Fitness & Nutrition
    • Pandemic Updates
  • Sports
    • Football
    • Basketball
    • Tennis
    • Olympics
    • Motorsport
  • Entertainment
    • Movies
    • Music
    • TV & Streaming
    • Celebrity News
    • Awards & Festivals
  • Crime & Justice
    • Court Cases
    • Cybercrime
    • Policing
    • Criminal Investigations
    • Legal Reforms
No Result
View All Result
Today Headline
No Result
View All Result
Home Business & Finance

Prediction: Caterpillar’s Stock Becomes a Buy When This Key Number Turns Around todayheadline

May 31, 2025
in Business & Finance
Reading Time: 4 mins read
A A
0
Caterpillar retail sales.
0
SHARES
0
VIEWS
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter


Nobody said investing in equities was easy, and that observation certainly holds when examining the investment proposition at Caterpillar (CAT -1.25%) right now. There is a robust case for buying shares of the heavy machinery maker today, but there’s one key thing investors will want to see before buying the stock.

The case for buying Caterpillar stock

Despite a 10% year-over-year decrease in sales in the first quarter and a whopping 27% decline in operating profit, there’s still a robust case for buying Caterpillar. It’s based on three interconnected factors.

  • The company’s retail sales data was better than expected in the first quarter and indicates an upturn is coming.
  • Its dealers’ inventory position in the first quarter suggests a favorable setup for Caterpillar sales for the rest of 2025.
  • Management estimates for earnings and cash flow imply the stock is a good value for a company in the trough year of its earnings cycle.

Before supporting these points in detail, it’s worth noting that Caterpillar generates the overwhelming majority of its sales through independent dealers to end users. The dealers manage their inventory of equipment, and the sales data in the chart below reflects their sales to end users.

A better-than-expected first quarter

During the first-quarter earnings call in late April, outgoing CEO Jim Umpleby noted, “Machine sales to users were stronger than we expected in the first quarter, resulting in flat machine dealer inventory, versus our expectation for growth in dealer inventory during the quarter.”

Caterpillar’s retail sales to end users in the construction and energy and transportation segments were in positive growth territory in the first quarter, with only a 10% decline in resource industries (mining and aggregates) pulling down total machine sales (which include construction and resource industries sales) into negative territory.

Data source: Caterpillar presentations, chart by author.

The better-than-expected end user sales (remember, they represent dealers’ sales) led to dealers only increasing inventory by $100 million in the first quarter. By way of comparison, dealers increased inventory by $1.4 billion in the first quarter of 2024.

Given current sales patterns, “dealers are ordering to replenish” according to CEO Joe Creed, giving credence to management’s forecast for flat sales in 2025.

Overall, management’s full-year guidance, excluding the impact of tariffs, is for flat sales, an adjusted operating profit margin in the top half of its cyclical range (which is approximately 16% to 20%), and free cash flow (FCF) toward the top half of the $5 billion to $10 billion range.

For reference, Wall Street analysts have penciled in $8.4 billion in FCF for 2025, a figure that would put Caterpillar stock at 19.6 times FCF in 2025 — a good valuation for a cyclical company in a trough year. That’s the buy case, and it’s pretty compelling.

Construction workers in a field with equipment in the background.

Image source: Getty Images.

The key metric to keep an eye on

That being said, there are a couple of considerations to keep in mind. First, there’s the great unknown of the tariff landscape. Management’s commentary on the matter includes changing guidance from “top half” of the ranges discussed above to “within,” assuming the tariffs in place at the end of April. Since then, there has been a de-escalation, giving investors reason to feel more positive.

The second consideration is more problematic and relates to “price realization.” This refers to the impact of pricing on sales and operating profit, independent of the effect on sales volumes. Positive price realization implies Caterpillar was able to achieve better pricing on machinery, and can also reflect relatively better sales of higher-priced machinery or in more lucrative geographies. Negative price realization suggests that Caterpillar may be offering discounts or incentives in response to competition.

The change in operating profit is almost entirely attributable to changes in sales volume (Caterpillar’s sales volume, not dealers’ sales, as outlined above) and price realization. As the chart below demonstrates, positive price realization was able to offset declining sales volumes until the second quarter of 2024, after which both trends turned downward in the third quarter.

Change in operating profit.

Data source: Caterpillar presentations, chart by author.

What it means for Caterpillar investors

Negative price realization is likely to continue in the second quarter as it comes up against a difficult comparison with the second quarter of 2024. However, suppose Caterpillar’s sales are set to improve in the second half, in line with the positive trend in user sales and dealers’ inventory positions. In that case, it’s reasonable to expect some improvement in price realization in the third quarter, and possibly in the second quarter as well.

It’s a key metric to watch, indicating a strengthening of market conditions and Caterpillar’s ability to grow earnings and meet its full-year targets.

Tags: BuyCaterpillarsKeynumberpredictionStocktodayheadlineturns
Previous Post

Ford recalls more than 29,000 vehicles in the US, NHTSA says todayheadline

Related Posts

Ford recalls more than 29,000 vehicles in the US, NHTSA says

Ford recalls more than 29,000 vehicles in the US, NHTSA says todayheadline

May 31, 2025
0

What Every Brand Gets Wrong About Using AI todayheadline

May 31, 2025
0
  • Trending
  • Comments
  • Latest
Family calls for change after B.C. nurse dies by suicide after attacks on the job

Family calls for change after B.C. nurse dies by suicide after attacks on the job

April 2, 2025
Pioneering 3D printing project shares successes

Product reduces TPH levels to non-hazardous status

November 27, 2024

Hospital Mergers Fail to Deliver Better Care or Lower Costs, Study Finds todayheadline

December 31, 2024

Police ID man who died after Corso Italia fight

December 23, 2024
Harris tells supporters 'never give up' and urges peaceful transfer of power

Harris tells supporters ‘never give up’ and urges peaceful transfer of power

0
Des Moines Man Accused Of Shooting Ex-Girlfriend's Mother

Des Moines Man Accused Of Shooting Ex-Girlfriend’s Mother

0

Trump ‘looks forward’ to White House meeting with Biden

0
Catholic voters were critical to Donald Trump’s blowout victory: ‘Harris snubbed us’

Catholic voters were critical to Donald Trump’s blowout victory: ‘Harris snubbed us’

0
The Conversation

Economist details the real danger behind Trump’s ‘chicken taco trading’ todayheadline

May 31, 2025
tycho star

The Universe’s Most Powerful Cosmic Rays May Finally Be Explained : ScienceAlert todayheadline

May 31, 2025
an aerial view of a space capsule touching down in the desert under three blue and red parachutes

Blue Origin launches 6 people to space and back on latest New Shepard suborbital flight

May 31, 2025
Autism and ADHD have distinct brain connectivity signatures, study finds

Autism and ADHD have distinct brain connectivity signatures, study finds

May 31, 2025

Recent News

The Conversation

Economist details the real danger behind Trump’s ‘chicken taco trading’ todayheadline

May 31, 2025
4
tycho star

The Universe’s Most Powerful Cosmic Rays May Finally Be Explained : ScienceAlert todayheadline

May 31, 2025
3
an aerial view of a space capsule touching down in the desert under three blue and red parachutes

Blue Origin launches 6 people to space and back on latest New Shepard suborbital flight

May 31, 2025
3
Autism and ADHD have distinct brain connectivity signatures, study finds

Autism and ADHD have distinct brain connectivity signatures, study finds

May 31, 2025
1

TodayHeadline is a dynamic news website dedicated to delivering up-to-date and comprehensive news coverage from around the globe.

Follow Us

Browse by Category

  • Africa
  • Asia
  • Basketball
  • Business & Finance
  • Climate Change
  • Crime & Justice
  • Cybersecurity
  • Economic Policies
  • Elections
  • Entertainment
  • Entrepreneurship
  • Environmental Policies
  • Europe
  • Football
  • Gadgets & Devices
  • Health
  • Medical Research
  • Mental Health
  • Middle East
  • Motorsport
  • Olympics
  • Politics
  • Public Health
  • Relationships & Family
  • Science & Environment
  • Software & Apps
  • Space Exploration
  • Sports
  • Stock Market
  • Technology & Startups
  • Tennis
  • Travel
  • Uncategorized
  • Us & Canada
  • Wildlife & Conservation
  • World News

Recent News

The Conversation

Economist details the real danger behind Trump’s ‘chicken taco trading’ todayheadline

May 31, 2025
tycho star

The Universe’s Most Powerful Cosmic Rays May Finally Be Explained : ScienceAlert todayheadline

May 31, 2025
  • Education
  • Lifestyle
  • Technology & Startups
  • About us
  • Contact
  • Advertise with Us
  • Privacy & Policy

© 2024 Todayheadline.co

Welcome Back!

OR

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
No Result
View All Result
  • Business & Finance
  • Corporate News
  • Economic Policies
  • Entrepreneurship
  • Market Trends
  • Crime & Justice
  • Court Cases
  • Criminal Investigations
  • Cybercrime
  • Legal Reforms
  • Policing
  • Education
  • Higher Education
  • Online Learning
  • Entertainment
  • Awards & Festivals
  • Celebrity News
  • Movies
  • Music
  • Health
  • Fitness & Nutrition
  • Medical Breakthroughs
  • Mental Health
  • Pandemic Updates
  • Lifestyle
  • Fashion & Beauty
  • Food & Drink
  • Home & Living
  • Politics
  • Elections
  • Government Policies
  • International Relations
  • Legislative News
  • Political Parties
  • Africa
  • Asia
  • Europe
  • Middle East
  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Cybersecurity
  • Emerging Technologies
  • Gadgets & Devices
  • Industry Analysis
  • Basketball
  • Football
  • Motorsport
  • Olympics
  • Climate Change
  • Environmental Policies
  • Medical Research
  • Science & Environment
  • Space Exploration
  • Wildlife & Conservation
  • Sports
  • Tennis
  • Technology & Startups
  • Software & Apps
  • Startup Success Stories
  • Startups & Innovations
  • Tech Regulations
  • Venture Capital
  • Uncategorized
  • World News
  • Us & Canada
  • Public Health
  • Relationships & Family
  • Travel
  • Research & Innovation
  • Scholarships & Grants
  • School Reforms
  • Stock Market
  • TV & Streaming
  • Advertise with Us
  • Privacy & Policy
  • About us
  • Contact

© 2024 Todayheadline.co