A trio of growth drivers and a long history of strong execution will secure this company’s membership in an elite fraternity.
The U.S. economy has undergone a paradigm shift over the past two decades. In 2005, the two largest publicly traded companies in the U.S., when measured by market cap, were energy giant ExxonMobil at $392 billion and industrial bellwether General Electric worth $375 billion. Now, just 20 years later, technology companies spearheading advances in artificial intelligence (AI) rule the roost.
Four household names top the list. AI chipmaker Nvidia is the frontrunner at $4.5 trillion (as of this writing), regularly climbing to new heights. Cloud and software provider Microsoft takes up second place, worth $3.9 trillion. iPhone maker Apple is nipping at Microsoft’s heels at $3.8 trillion, and search pioneer Alphabet rounds out the top four at $3 trillion.
With a market cap of nearly $2.4 trillion, it seems almost a foregone conclusion that Amazon (AMZN 1.55%) will soon join the fold. The company has numerous growth drivers that continue to defy detractors, and the vast opportunity represented by AI will likely take the company over the finish line into the $3 trillion club.
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A rare triple threat
What sets Amazon apart from the competition is its triad of successful businesses. While it’s impressive for a company to have even one industry-leading business, Amazon has two and a third that’s a strong contender in its field.
First up is Amazon’s flagship e-commerce platform. The company made its fortune as a pioneer in the nascent e-commerce space in 1994, before ultimately earning the moniker of “Everything Store” and becoming the world’s largest online retailer. Amazon is also the world’s second-largest retailer, behind just Walmart.
Results from the second quarter help illustrate the overall magnitude of the company’s success. Net sales of $167.7 billion increased 13% year over year, with 61% of the topline coming from digital retail or third-party seller services. This fueled net income of $18.2 billion, up 35%.
Amazon’s second industry-leading business — and by far its most important segment — is Amazon Web Services (AWS), the company’s cloud infrastructure services business. AWS provides on-demand computing solutions, software applications, AI, and more.
The company continues to dominate the space it pioneered in 2002, with an estimated 30% of the market, followed by Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud, with 20% and 13%, respectively, according to Statista. Furthermore, the cloud segment continues to grow at a respectable clip, up 17% year over year in the second quarter. AWS generated 19% of Amazon’s revenue and 58% of operating income for the first six months of 2025, helping to fund the company’s other growth initiatives.
Last but certainly not least is Amazon’s fast-growing advertising business, which is fueled by its valuable product search, as well as Amazon Prime Video, live sports programming, Fire TV, and the company’s live-streaming gaming platform, Twitch. Advertising revenue of $15.7 billion increased 23% year-over-year in the second quarter, accounting for 9% of total revenue. These statistics place Amazon third in the race for digital advertising dominance, behind only Google and Meta Platforms.
If that trio of successful businesses wasn’t enough, Amazon is also one of the foremost authorities on AI, with more than 1,000 generative AI services and apps in development or already available for its cloud customers, and plans to offer many more. “AI will be a substantial catalyst,” according to CEO Andy Jassy.
The path to $3 trillion
Amazon has a market cap of roughly $2.35 trillion (as of this writing), so its stock price will only need to increase by roughly 27% to reach $3 trillion. According to Wall Street, Amazon is expected to generate revenue of $708 billion in 2025, giving it a forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 3. Assuming its P/S remains constant, Amazon would need revenue of roughly $902 billion annually to support a $3 trillion market cap.
Wall Street is currently predicting Amazon’s growth will clock in at roughly 10% annually over the next five years. If the company achieves that benchmark, it could achieve a $3 trillion market cap as soon as 2028. However, given its history of strong execution, that target us likely conservative and I predict the company will make the grade sooner.
Finally, at 34 times earnings, Amazon trades at a premium compared to a multiple of 31 for the S&P 500. That said, the company has delivered stock price gains of 712% over the past decade, far exceeding the 239% gains S&P 500. This helps illustrate why Amazon represents a compelling opportunity as it marches toward $3 trillion.
Danny Vena has positions in Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Walmart. The Motley Fool recommends GE Aerospace and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
