It’s almost football time in the Bluegrass! Here are some final thoughts and predictions about how the Wildcats’ game against New Mexico State might play out Saturday afternoon.
In-game practice
Kentucky got to play against one of the worst defenses in the country last weekend. It’ll meet an even worse one Saturday; New Mexico State is one of just four FBS teams giving up 40 or more points per game, and is yielding a healthy 475.7 yards to its opponents each time out.
The Aggies are coming off their worst defeat in a season full of lopsided losses. If not for a face-mask penalty, Alabama likely would have shut them out, but the Crimson Tide settled for a 59-3 rout. It was New Mexico State’s sixth straight loss after its only win of the season, which came over Football Championship Subdivision participant South Carolina State, 43-35.
If Kentucky’s turn with the Aggies is played within a 20-point margin — like the first meeting between the schools back in 2016 — it’ll be a disappointment. And if it’s anything like this season’s Chattanooga game, whoa boy. UK at that point in the season was still figuring out some of its new parts and, by the admission of its own offensive coordinator, maybe didn’t take the Mocs as seriously as it should have. Liam Coen doesn’t foresee a similar letdown against the 1-9 Aggies.
“We definitely underestimated an opponent,” Coen said this week. “It was more so for us, the latter part of the week, I thought that we took it easier in terms of the practice mentality and all that. So far this week, I can say that these are two of our better practices that we’ve had on a Monday and Tuesday as a team and specifically on offense as well. Just the energy, being serious about this opponent.”
Other than avoiding a program-altering upset, the biggest reason Kentucky should bury New Mexico State early is to get meaningful reps for players down the roster from whom it’ll need contributions in the future and possibly in the present. Marquee 2021 signee Jager Burton, who this time last year was mauling opposing defensive linemen in the KHSAA playoffs, hasn’t played since the season-opener and has three games left to play without losing his redshirt. Kentucky could stand to see what its youngest defensive backs (Adrien Huey, Jordan Lovett, and Rickey Hyatt) can bring to the table against an offense that leans on its air game. Backup quarterback Beau Allen hasn’t taken a snap since UK hosted Louisiana-Monroe on Sept. 4, the last Saturday that UK could afford to trot out players beyond the two-deep chart.
Almost every good football program in the country is a quarterback injury away from being average. If Will Levis were to get knocked out of a game, UK would find itself in the position of playing a guy with 14 college passes under his belt, and just a single quarter of play in the Cats’ current offense. It would benefit from getting Allen some more live game reps to improve its outlook should it be presented with a worst-case scenario.
“You go into every game trying to score and do as much as you can to win the game,” Coen said. “It’s really not about other guys getting in. You hope that they can get in and do their jobs to the best of their ability, but we don’t go into a game thinking, ‘Let’s get these guys in.’ I think he’s done a nice job. He’s continuing to get better. I think he’s more and more comfortable with the system. …
“If we see him on Saturday, I have full confidence that he’ll go in and play well.”
Attacking Aggies
If you exempt New Mexico State’s 257-yard rushing performance at Hawaii on Oct. 23 — its second time seeing the Rainbow Warriors’ defense this season — the Aggies are averaging just 72.8 rushing yards per game. Their highest single-game total after that was 121, also against Hawaii. Those games are the only times they’ve had 50-plus rushing yards since Sept. 18.
Like a couple of teams that recently have given Kentucky fits, NMSU leans on its passing attack, which generates an average of 354.5 yards. If the offense operates as usual for the Aggies, they should provide ample play-making opportunities to a Wildcats secondary that counts just two interceptions among its ranks this season.
UK has four interceptions as a team — linebackers Jacquez Jones and J.J. Weaver have one each in addition to safeties Ty Ajian and Jalen Geiger — and just seven total turnovers gained through 10 games, which is tied with Stanford (2-6) for the third-lowest total in the country. Only one other Power Five team is bottom 10 in that statistic and has an above .500 record — Auburn (6-4). Considering that UK is rarely earning extra possessions, its held things together fairly well this season; it wants to make up for lost time, though.
“This is a team, if you come out slacking or you’re lackadaisical, they can jump on you early, no matter what their record is or how they’ve played in past games,” cornerback Cedric Dort said. “It’s time for us as a DB unit to rack up that interception total.”
Final predictions
Kentucky 50, New Mexico State 7: I’m going against the grain here, point-spread wise. UK under Mark Stoops hasn’t often covered monstrous spreads, and it opened as a 38-point favorite over the Aggies. The Wildcats haven’t hung 50 points on a team in a couple years (50-7 over Tennessee-Martin on Nov. 23, 2019, nearly two years to the date this game will be played) but have looked sharp against better defenses than this one the last two times out.
MVP: Wan’Dale Robinson. In what could be his final game at Kroger Field, the former Western Hills standout scores two touchdowns and tops 100 yards for the fifth time this season.
Good gamble: Despite liking UK’s runaway chances, I still wouldn’t recommend betting the spread just because there are too many variables. Not a lot of compelling odds out there for this one, so you might be better served wagering with a friend. Exotic under bets on total points are probably the place to try and leach some value; try under 58 points (+120).
The last word
Senior offensive tackle Darian Kinnard offered some perspective on the mentality needed to get through a football season.
“When we get late into the season, and our bodies are all beat up and we’re tired, it’s really just about grinding it out (asking), ‘Why do we do this, why do we love the game?’ It’s always a constant reminder, the ‘Why do I do this? What makes me happiest?’ I couldn’t imagine myself going a day without at least being around football. I know, right now, it might seem like a struggle to keep going, but in four or five years, God willing, if I didn’t go to the NFL, I know I’d be missing it.
“The biggest thing is just going out there and taking it day by day, and thanking God that I have the ability to do this. A lot of people don’t. Especially with John (Schlarman) passing, he was the biggest inspiration to a lot of us o-linemen. We can’t really complain anymore after having him. You can’t complain about being sore or beat up, ‘cause it’s always a reminder in the back of your head, ‘Hey man, that man’s been through a lot more than you and still came out here.’”