LONDON — Five teams, each with five games to play, and three Champions League spots up for grabs.
Nottingham Forest weren’t supposed to be in that conversation, but they now lead the five-way race after their 2-1 win at Tottenham on Monday. With the result, Forest are turning the screws on Newcastle United, Manchester City, Chelsea and Aston Villa.
The race for Champions League is where the excitement is at in the Premier League. The title race is as good as over with Liverpool needing just one more win to become champions — they can seal the deal against Spurs at Anfield on Sunday. The relegation battle, too, is nearly done with Southampton and Leicester already knocked down, and Ipswich having joined them yet only due to goal differential.
But the battle to qualify for next season’s Champions League is now so intense that it is almost certain to run until the final day of the campaign on May 25.
The performances of the Premier League teams in European competition this season have ensured that England will top the UEFA co-efficient table and secure an additional Champions League spot in the 2025-26, so rather four qualification berths, five slots are now available. With Liverpool and Arsenal assuredly securing the first two spots, that leaves three more.
Yet right now, just three points separate Forest in third position and Villa in seventh. Five clubs are so tightly congested that any could finish third or seventh. A dropped point here or a late goal conceded there could prove to be the difference between facing Real Madrid in the Champions League next season or spending Thursday nights against Europe’s lesser lights in the Europa League.
Forest’s win at Spurs on Monday — after back-to-back defeats against Villa and Everton had seemingly triggered a slide out of the Champions League race — enabled Nuno Espirito Santo’s side to move onto 60 points, a point clear of fourth-place Newcastle.
But all could change on Tuesday when Manchester City (fifth, 58 points) face Villa (seventh, 57 points) at the Etihad. No matter what happens between Pep Guardiola’s team and Unai Emery’s side, Forest won’t drop out of the top five on Tuesday. But between now and the final games on May 25, each of the five teams chasing the three remaining spots will be playing a football version of snakes-and-ladders.
Having finished in 17th position last season — one place above the relegation trapdoor — nobody could have foreseen Forest’s remarkable season this time around, but Nuno’s team have been able to keep pace with the more fancied sides due to their organisation, team ethic and the goals of Chris Wood, who took his Premier League tally to 19 for the season against Spurs.
But after their recent wobble, can Forest now hold their nerve and get over the line to return to the Champions League for the first time 1980-81? Their remaining run-in schedule is relatively kind, with Brentford at home and Crystal Palace away next up before a home game against relegated Leicester and trip to struggling West Ham.
If Forest are still in the shake-up after that sequence of games, they will face Chelsea at the City Ground on the final day in what could be a Champions League decider.
Newcastle’s fixture list, meanwhile, looks more difficult, especially with no indication yet as to when, or if, manager Eddie Howe will be able to return to work after being hospitalised with pneumonia. Saturday’s home game against Ipswich Town should be a straightforward win, but then come tougher assignments against Brighton away, Chelsea at home, Arsenal away and Everton at St James’ Park on the final day.
Man City’s biggest hurdle could be Tuesday’s encounter with Villa because after that game, Guardiola’s side face Wolves at home, Southampton away, Bournemouth at home and Fulham away. Despite their struggles this season, City really should seal a top five finish from that fixture list.
Chelsea are the team that looks to have the biggest battle ahead. Already outside the top five after just two wins from their last five league games, Enzo Maresca’s side face Everton at Stamford Bridge on Saturday before successive games against Liverpool at home and Newcastle away.
A home game against Manchester United on May 16 may offer Chelsea some much-needed respite before they end their season at Forest. Chelsea are likely to need to win at least four of their last five games to clinch a top five spot and that looks a tall order in their current form.
Villa? Last Saturday’s 4-1 win against Newcastle threw Emery’s side a Champions League lifeline, but they will need to avoid defeat at City on Tuesday to avoid becoming outsiders for a top five finish.
If they can achieve a positive result at the Etihad, games against Fulham at home and Bournemouth away will be opportunities to build momentum before ending their season with back-to-back games against Spurs at home and Man United away.
And let’s not forget Spurs and Man United, even though their supporters would love to erase this season from their memory banks. If they meet in the Europa League final in Bilbao on May 21 — Spurs face Bodo/Glimt and United meet Athletic Club in the semifinals next month — the winner will clinch a place in the Champions League and take the Premier League’s representation to six teams next season.
Right now, that would be a meeting between teams sitting 14th (Man United) and 16 (Spurs) in the Premier League. It’s perhaps the lowest-quality Champions League playoff in history.
But at the top end of the table, five teams are pushing hard for three places in the competition and the race will ensure fireworks over the final month of the season.
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