The victory of Donald Trump in the 2024 U.S. presidential election has caused a shockwave throughout the world. Friends and foes of the United States alike are nervous about another four years with the former president, whose first term was filled with uncertainties and inconsistencies. However, Japan, in particular, seems to have prepared for such an outcome and is unlikely to repeat its 2016 mistake of completely downplaying the possibility.
Well before the election night that decided the next leader of Japan’s foremost ally, Japanese people had been preparing themselves̶ mentally by coining phrases such as “Moshi Tora” (If Trump), or “Hobo Tora” (Probably Trump). The Japanese government, presumably reflective of the public’s entreaties to be fully prepared for a second Trump presidency, has been using all possible means to remain under Trump’s good graces: reaching out to him by relying on ties that were forged during his first term; bringing out late Prime Minister Abe Shinzo’s former interpreter, who is well acquainted with Trump due to their frequent encounters at summit meetings; dispatching Aso Taro, a Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) heavyweight, to Trump’s mansion in New York.
However, the Japanese media’s criticisms that Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru spent only five minutes on the phone with the president-elect makes one wonder whether these efforts left any impact on Trump.
Although the Japanese were not as surprised as they were in 2016, they are still not sure whether their current leaders can handle Trump as well as Abe did; a Diet member who was close to Abe described his manipulation as “masterful.” According to Akira Amari, Abe was successful in containing the worst instincts of Trump by convincing his counterpart that pursuing one’s national interest and respecting that of his allies did not contradict one another.
It is widely believed that Abe’s charm offensive toward Trump worked. His domestic audience and international leaders share such an assessment. The fact that Trump has been publicly intoning fondly about his time with Abe – in contrast to some world leaders who caught his ire – is some evidence that he saw Abe as trustworthy and an individual who he respected. However, while Trump recalls their interactions positively, underneath the “bromance” one could catch a glimpse of calculation and desperation on the part of Abe.
Abe understood that Trump’s worldview – skeptical of free trade and unconvinced of the value of defending allied nations – would be disastrous for Japan’s national interest. That forced him to take unprecedented steps. In order to generate a memorable first impression that would ingratiate his country with Trump for times to come, Abe became the first world leader to visit President-elect Trump at his residence, infuriating the Democratic administration still in power at the time, which saw his moves as a breach of diplomatic protocol. Abe reportedly nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize. He played golf and ate hamburgers with Trump – both being Trump’s favorites.
On the extreme side, according to Peter Baker and Susan Glasser, Abe told another Republican that he should divorce his wife in order to join the Trump administration. The implication was that Abe hoped there would be someone in the room to contain Trump’s worst instincts – so that he would not harm Japan.
Although Abe’s efforts to please Trump were sometimes criticized as “flattery,” the fact that Abe decided to do all the things that he did shows how much he felt was at stake. However, there were occasions where Abe’s “bromance” with Trump failed to have the desired effect. For example, although Abe petitioned for dialogue between Washington and Tehran, Trump, who has a large constituency, supported a firmer policy with Iran, introducing fresh new sanctions, exposing the mediator role that Abe tried to play as futile.
A recent piece published in The Economist highlighted another aspect of why Abe’s relationship with Trump bore fruit. The newspaper pointed out that flattery of Trump does not always work; French President Emmanuel Macron’s efforts to please Trump – dining at the Eiffel Tower and showcasing a military parade – still left the impression that he was condescending. The failure of Macron, in contrast to Abe’s success, shows that establishing a rapport with Trump has to entail a sense of sincerity and humility.
There is no doubt the “bromance” between Abe and Trump was real and they had a genuine friendship. However, what is often overlooked is how seriously Abe engaged in the friendship and the pressure that he must have felt to keep it as intimate as possible. For Japan, the United States has been its primary security guarantor, and is much needed now as the security environment continues to deteriorate. Japan depends on U.S. exports from fighter jets to soybeans – a crucial ingredient in most Japanese staples. In terms of exports, Japan’s proud automobile industry relies heavily on the U.S. market. With all aspects of Japanese livelihood seemingly connected to the United States, Abe’s behavior makes complete sense.
There has been recent talk lately that Ishiba, Japan’s current prime minister, should practice golfing, or come forth with his Christian faith, so that he can build chemistry with Trump in the same manner as Abe did. Ishiba can choose his style of doing business with Trump. However, he should keep in mind that the Japan-U.S. relationship affects all aspects of Japanese life, and feel the full weight of that responsibility, as his predecessor did.
