The surprise about the American presidential election was how quickly the result became known, and President-elect Donald Trump has maintained that surprising speed in announcing his cabinet selections. Those choices have not been surprising at all, except to optimists who hoped in vain that he would be more moderate in governing than he was in campaigning. They now will put Europe under great pressure to respond and to adapt, and to do so rapidly.
This promises to expose Europe’s greatest weakness while underlining what is America’s greatest strength, at least at moments when one political party and person achieve such dominance. Europe moves slowly and by compromise in a European Union system deliberately designed to ensure no single country or person can be dominant. America’s federal government can be far more decisive.
The European Union still does not have a new European Commission confirmed and in office even though Ursula von der Leyen was re-elected as president on July 18. Even more important, however, is weakness in Germany and France: Germany’s Olaf Scholz faces a no-confidence vote on December 16, paving the way to early general elections on February 23; France’s new prime minister, Michel Barnier, is battling to get his 2025 budget passed by a deeply divided National Assembly.
Admittedly, the speed of Trump’s appointments is partly misleading. He is making his decisions more rapidly than he did in 2016, but the people he chooses still cannot take up their posts until after he has been inaugurated as president on January 20 and until after their appointments have been confirmed by votes in the Senate. That may not be as smooth a process as Trump hopes.
Trump’s Republican Party now holds a clear majority in the Senate, but his provocative choices of a vengeful loyalist, Congressman Matt Gaetz, as attorney general; of an unqualified Fox News TV presenter, Pete Hesgeth, as secretary of defense; and of extremist Putin-sympathizer Tulsi Gabbard as director of national intelligence could all face opposition from more moderate Republican Senators. Since this article was written, Trump added the nomination of Robert F Kennedy Jr as health and human services secretary to his list of deliberately destructive choices that in effect are daring moderate Republicans to take him on.
Ursula von der Leyen’s new European commissioners are currently going through their own confirmation hearings in the European Parliament, which is why the new Commission is still waiting to get into action. Officials can prepare contingency plans for the challenges that are about to be posed by Trump, especially over trade, defense spending and Ukraine. But without political leadership, those plans will be cast into doubt.
A full European response to Trump, just like a full European response to the proposals made in July by Mario Draghi to boost European competitiveness, will require strong governments that expect to stay in power for several years. Nonetheless, some quicker decisions can still be taken by politicians sheltering under the cover provided by their own political turbulence.
Most notably, the Scholz government, in its final weeks in office before the confidence vote, could make steps towards helping Ukraine strengthen its bargaining position, safe in the knowledge that such actions can be supported by the center-right opposition. Friedrich Merz, leader of the centre-right Christian Democrats, has been a supporter of Ukraine but also may favor an early agreement with Scholz that shares responsibility for such a decision, reducing the risk that it might become controversial during the election.
The United Kingdom is not facing an election or political instability, but recently elected Prime Minister Keir Starmer could also be persuadable to support a decision by Scholz and Merz to send more weapons to Ukraine and, in particular, to authorize Ukraine to use those weapons for long-range strikes into Russia. Ukraine is facing an imminent major Russian offensive to try to retake the land occupied since August by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region, and long-range missile strikes into Russia would give it the best chance of resisting that offensive.
The big challenge from Trump on trade will not begin until after January 20, but Europeans should be bracing themselves for a 10% or 20% tariff on their exports to America to be imposed within days of his taking office. Awkwardly, that will fall during the German election campaign. But Scholz
This article, published on Bill Emmott’s Global View, is the English original of an article published in Italian by La Stampa. It is republished with permission.
