The Taiwanese share something in common with the Japanese. Both nations have deep-seated doubts that the United States really will defend them. That question is ringing out out as loudly as ever since Donald Trump won the November US presidential election. However, in Taiwan‘s case, it’s probably a more rational concern.
A Taiwanese friend noted that Donald Trump made no clear statement of support for Taiwan during his electoral campaign. Then he asked a handful of questions about Taiwan’s future prospects under the new administration.
Q: What will Trump’s Taiwan policy look like during his second term? Should Taiwan worry?
A: Taiwan was not an issue in the US election campaign. It never is ― for any candidate. Very few, if any, voters decide on a presidential candidate based on their position on Taiwan.
So, the fact that Trump didn’t deliver a detailed explanation of his Taiwan policy while running his presidential campaign ― and even suggested Taiwan wasn’t doing enough ― shouldn’t be much of an issue.
More importantly, consider how Trump and his administration handled Taiwan during his first term from 2017-2021. While Trump was president, arms sales to Taiwan expanded considerably over the Obama administration‘s “weak” on China / “weak” on Taiwan performance.
Also, Taiwan’s isolation eased as the United States paid more attention to it. Also, senior US officials (serving and former ones) visited Taiwan. And, most importantly, Trump’s administration was the first one ever ― since Nixon opened up to China ― that stood up to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and for the free world’s interests.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) hated the Trump administration and his advisors handling China policy in particular: Mike Pompeo, Matt Pottinger, David Stilwell, Miles Yu, et al. That tells you everything you need to know.
So remember, always look at what Mr Trump does … not what he says.
How will the new cabinet members handle Taiwan security issues?
The two cabinet members most involved in Taiwan matters are Senator Marco Rubio and Congressman Mike Waltz. They are designated respectively as secretary of state and national security advisor. Both have been strong in opposing the Chinese Communists and have track records of specific legislative efforts to resist and roll back PRC aggression and misbehavior.
Both of them well understand Taiwan’s importance to the free world. They will make strong efforts to defend Taiwan and to allow Taiwan to defend itself ― assuming Taiwan is willing to do so.
During Trump’s campaign, he demanded that Taiwan pay protection fees, which aroused heated discussions. Should we worry?
This was a concocted controversy. Trump rightly observed that Taiwan does not spend nearly enough on its own defense. In fact, it has not done so for the last 30 years.
The President-elect understands that most of the US public will not tolerate sending Americans to die on Taiwan’s behalf while Taiwan does not do everything possible to defend itself. That’s the reality of American politics these days.
Taipei also needs to understand this.
And this position resonates with most Americans ― especially those whose children serve in the US military. It applies not only to Taiwan but to the European nations, Japan, Australia, and Canada, as well.
What kind of measures should Taiwan take in response to pressure to increase Taiwan’s defense budget?
Above all, recognize that pressure over defense spending reflects the desire for Taiwan to improve its overall defense. It’s not just to allocate more money to the defense budget.
Then do the following:
- Prepare the Taiwan public for a possible war. Visitors to Taiwan are often struck by the lack of concern ― and outright indifference ― among Taiwan’s population over the threat from the nearby PRC.
- Greatly increase defense spending.
- Reorganize the Taiwan military and its operating concepts so it presents a more difficult challenge for China’s People’s Liberation Army. This will probably require retiring a number of senior officers and giving younger, less hidebound officers, the chance to reform Taiwan’s military and how it fights.
- Fix the currently shambolic Taiwan military reserve system. It is not anywhere near as effective as it should be ― and could be.
- Develop a real civil defense scheme for all of Taiwan that directly involves the civilian population in national defense activities.
- Counter Chinese political warfare and aggressively target the PRC’s fifth column in Taiwan. Also, conduct a serious counter-intelligence effort against people spying for the PRC in Taiwan. There reportedly are lots of them.
- Invest heavily in long-range precision weapons, smart sea mines, offensive cyber capabilities and hardening Taiwan’s communications networks. This will help to improve Taiwan’s chances of surviving a Chinese assault.
- End the disastrous move towards “renewable” energy in Taiwan ― and bulk up Taiwan’s energy infrastructure. That includes conventional energy stocks.
- Do everything possible to show the US that Taiwan is trying to defend itself and that it can defend itself.
Do all this – or even most of it – and American support is far more likely.
Many people describe Trump as isolationist and worry he will withdraw America’s stabilizing presence from world affairs. Should we worry?
No.
Trump (and his supporters) are often called “isolationists” but what is the evidence? Look at Trump’s first four years (2017-2021).
Did the US withdraw from the world? No.
Which permanent forward-deployed US forces in the Asia/Pacific or Europe were brought home? None.
Which alliance with an ally ended? None.
Wanting America to be careful about getting involved in foreign wars ― and about sending young Americans to die ― does not make one an isolationist.
Similarly, insisting that our allies and friends spend more of their own money and sacrifice more of their own young people does not make one an isolationist.
If anything, it’s common sense.
The US cannot and should not be the world’s policeman, especially on behalf of partners who’ve taken the Americans and their protection for granted. And yes, I’m referring to the Europeans, the Australians and Japan, among others.
Also, defending the US economy from unfair trade practices by other nations is not isolationist.
For decades it was assumed the US could absorb any damage caused by trade practices shaded in favor of other nations (even our friends). Wanting now to recover American manufacturing is not isolationist. Too much of it was moved overseas by America’s pedigreed class in the last 40 years. The carnage inflicted on America’s working class (“deplorables,” “garbage” and “lower orders,” if you ask some American elites) has been as damaging as an actual war.
This word “isolationist” is just another insult that’s thrown at Trump without any thought given to actual evidence. Few of the people calling names have children serving in the military. Nor are they affected very much by the harm caused by other nations’ unfair trade practices or the open borders of the last four years.
Any final advice for Taiwan?
Do everything possible – and then some more – to demonstrate that Taiwan will fiercely defend its freedom. That will give pause to the PRC. And more importantly, it will make the US and the world’s free nations more willing to protect Taiwan. This is why Ukraine received so much support. It fought bravely to defend itself. Taiwan needs to get ready now.
God helps those who help themselves.
So does the United States.
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Grant Newsham is a retired US Marine officer and former US diplomat. He is the author of the bookWhen China Attacks: A Warning To America.
This article was originally published by JAPAN Forward. It is republished with permission.
