The Ontario election played right into Doug Ford’s hands: Denley

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With the Ontario election just days away, it’s fair to say that PC leader Doug Ford’s re-election plan has been a success. His goal was to get through the campaign with a minimum of public involvement, no expensive new promises, and no damaging mistakes.

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This was an election that offered voters the bare minimum, the express version of democracy. When it comes to the traditional elements of an election, Ford tested the limits of public tolerance and found them to be extremely elastic.

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If voters didn’t look too closely — and that was the idea — the election resembled a normal one, except for the sight of campaign signs stuck in snow drifts. There were the two leaders’ debates and, eventually, platforms, but Ford’s public appearances were carefully stage-managed and his candidates, many chosen at the last minute, had little time to interact with the public.

For the first couple of weeks, Ford was energetic, arguing forcefully that his leadership was essential to protect the province from American tariffs. After that, he was content to glide toward Thursday’s expected victory while making two trips to Washington to meet American leaders.

Instead of plans for the next four years, Ford offered a string of union endorsements for the PCs, while his campaign team distracted the other parties with tales of the social-media mishaps of various Liberal candidates.

The PC election platform, finally released Monday, offered no surprises. With the exception of some new detail on tariff measures, it is mostly a recitation of pre-election promises and accomplishments, not a plan for the future.

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Ford called the election to get a mandate to protect Ontario from American tariffs, and the NDP and Liberals haven’t been able to get him off that track.

Ford spiked their best point just before the election by announcing $1.4 billion in new money to resolve the province’s shortage of primary care. Whether that money is enough or whether the plan will succeed is unknown, but it allowed Ford to say that he had addressed the issue.

The dearth of new spending in the PC platform is its primary strength. The party says it will spend $40 billion, but much of that is a guesstimate of tariff support or money already accounted for in previous budgets. A potential tunnel under Highway 401 is mentioned in the platform, but not costed. Don’t expect it to happen.

The only real danger in the approach is that PC supporters will be so certain of victory that they will turn out in insufficient numbers

The other party leaders have shown no such restraint. They complained about the cost of running the election, but the real cost of elections is the promises the parties make. The NDP’s shopping list would cost $70 billion over four years, offset by $37 billion in cost savings and new taxes.

The Liberals offer a $65-billion plan, offset by $28 billion in efficiencies and spending reallocations. Those would be the kind of things that Liberals call cuts when the PCs propose them.

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The PC campaign team deserves credit for running a professional and well-executed front-runner campaign. The choice of tariffs as the central issue stressed Ford’s perceived strong leadership qualities. The argument that Ford really can protect Ontario from U.S. President Donald Trump was dubious, but that didn’t matter. In a time when events are out of control, familiarity has a strong appeal.

The PCs understood better than their opponents that politics has reached a point where a single idea and a catchy slogan will take you a long way. Their “Protect Ontario” slogan tapped into Ontarians’ fear of economic attacks by the U.S. In two words, it described the entire PC plan.

Compare that to the Liberals’ “More For You,” an old-school attempt to reach voters who want more stuff from government without paying higher taxes. Still, it was better than the NDP’s “On Your Side.” Wouldn’t that be a given?

Few people will delve deeply into parties’ platforms. Fewer still will attend all-candidates’ debates, something that was largely eliminated in this campaign because of the snap election call and the PCs’ unwillingness to let their candidates speak for themselves.

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One could say, with some justification, that boiling down a political campaign to so little is a cynical approach to democracy, but it appears that it will meet the most important test of political campaigning: it works.

The only real danger in the approach is that PC supporters will be so certain of victory that they will turn out in insufficient numbers to give Ford the big mandate he seeks.

All that said, the PC tactics wouldn’t have worked if voters didn’t already like Ford or didn’t think he’d done a reasonable job. If he receives a third majority Thursday, it will be because of the positive things he has done over nearly seven years in office.

National Post

randalldenley1@gmail.com

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