A September heat wave switching into a snowstorm over one day in the Rocky Mountains. Winter snowfall suddenly melting and saturating fields of dormant crops, before refreezing and encasing them in damaging ice. Early spring warmth prompting plants to blossom followed by a cold snap that freezes and drops their petals.
Rapid temperature change events like these have increased in frequency and intensity over recent decades, a new study found.
The transition periods for these abrupt temperature shifts have also shortened, according to the study, published Tuesday in the journal Nature Communications.
Because the quick changes in temperature give communities and ecosystems little chance to respond, they may pose greater challenges than heat waves or cold snaps alone, said Wei Zhang, an assistant professor of climate science at Utah State University and one of the lead authors of the study.
The researchers warned these temperature flips could have damaging effects on people and natural environments, including destruction of crops, harm to ecosystems and strains on power infrastructure. And low-income countries, where there is less access to weather forecasting and infrastructure is less resilient, are more vulnerable.
The researchers examined temperature data from 1961 to 2023 to identify global patterns in sudden weather shifts, where temperatures in an area either jumped from cold temperatures to warm or plunged from warm to cold within five days. They found that instances of these flips increased in more than 60% of regions they surveyed.
The largest increases in frequency were observed in South America, West Europe, Africa, and South and Southeast Asia. Some areas, including the polar regions, showed different behavior and experienced fewer events.
While the climate mechanisms driving changes to these temperature-flip events are not yet fully understood, Zhang said, there is a significant trend showing that these events are becoming more frequent, stronger and quicker in many areas of the globe.
Sudden temperature changes can disrupt the growth of plants, posing challenges for agriculture.
In natural environments, plant loss from these flip events could set off a series of other consequences, like less available food for animals, Zhang said. Another risk from back-to-back severe temperatures is increased pressure on power systems, which can cause people to lose heat or air conditioning during dangerous temperatures.
