Several stakeholders are optimistic that a ceasefire deal in the Gaza Strip is close, with one senior western official telling Middle East Eye a deal could be reached as early as Friday and that a final draft of a ceasefire proposal is now in the hands of Israel and Hamas.
The official said it was “crunch time” for a deal, with Hamas and Israel softening their positions and President-elect Donald Trump set to take office on 20 January.
Speaking on Monday, US President Joe Biden said a ceasefire deal in Gaza was “on the brink” of being finalised.
“In the war between Israel and Hamas, we’re on the brink of a proposal that I laid out in detail months ago finally coming to fruition,” Biden said in a farewell speech at the State Department.
In a sign of the seriousness of the talks, Qatar’s ruler, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, met with Hamas representatives and the Middle East envoys for the incoming and outgoing US administrations on Monday as part of a push to secure the elusive ceasefire deal.
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The Hamas delegation is headed by Khalil al-Hayya. Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, and Brett McGurk, Biden’s envoy for the region, are both consulting on the talks. The head of Egypt’s general intelligence agency, Hassan Mahmoud Rashad, was also in Doha. He has left, but an Egyptian delegation remains, Reuters reported.
The US and several others have said a ceasefire has been close before, only for the talks to collapse. However, several signs indicate that a ceasefire may be moving closer than before.
Ceasefire before Trump’s inauguration?
President-elect Trump’s return to the White House appears to have injected fresh urgency into the negotiations.
Trump vowed to end the wars in the Middle East while campaigning. He warned of “hell to pay” if Hamas does not release the Israeli captives in Gaza before his inauguration. Gaza has already been reduced to rubble, with at least 46,584 Palestinians, mainly women and children, killed.
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In the occupied West Bank, the Palestinian Authority is pursuing a crackdown on opposing Palestinian resistance fighters.
The deeply unpopular offensive has been described by Arab officials as a ploy by the PA to project relevance to secure a role in post-war Gaza.
Meanwhile, heavy fighting rocked the Gaza Strip on Monday, leaving dozens of Palestinians and five Israeli soldiers dead.
The Israeli escalation, which killed more than 50 people, could be part of an effort to intensify attacks before a ceasefire is signed, a common tactic by combatants in war zones.
Netanyahu looks to Trump
Israel’s overarching motivations throughout the ceasefire talks have been to protect its demand that it can resume fighting in Gaza whenever it wants, even after Hamas returns the hostages it captured in the 7 October 2023 Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel.
Israel has offered tactical concessions to Hamas to get its hostages back, but its steps to occupy Gaza and refusal to agree to a permanent cessation of hostilities have been the main roadblocks to a ceasefire, experts say.
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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government includes far-right lawmakers who have called on Israel to rebuild illegal settlements in the Gaza Strip and are opposed to ending the war.
Israel’s far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich warned he would oppose any deal that stopped the war on X, saying that “now is the time to intensify our efforts, using all available force to fully secure and cleanse the Gaza Strip”.
However, Netanyahu may believe he can push through a deal with Trump, a staunchly pro-Israeli president returning to the White House, with the benefits of a clean slate to push for Netanyahu’s other priorities – like Iran and the potential annexation of other occupied territories.
The western official familiar with the talks told MEE that the permanence of the ceasefire and governance of any violations remain the key issues.
Other points of contention include the return of displaced Palestinians to their homes, the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Palestinian territory and the reopening of border crossings, including the Rafah crossing with Egypt.
Netanyahu has firmly rejected a full withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza and remains opposed to any Palestinian governance of the territory.
