In the early stages of the campaign, Republicans seeking to unseat Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff in one of the key races of the 2026 midterm elections are leaning heavily into attacks over transgender athletes in women’s sports.
Two GOP-aligned groups launched ads on the issue in recent weeks. And GOP Rep. Buddy Carter hit the airwaves with an ad prodding Ossoff on the issue soon after launching his campaign.
Republican candidates and campaigns have frequently leaned on culture war issues in recent years as a way to excite the base and frame Democrats as out of touch, particularly in red-leaning states. And they’re even more emboldened after President Donald Trump bombarded then-Vice President Kamala Harris with an onslaught of ads that attacked her support for transgender people during the 2024 election.
But while Democrats are gearing up for a difficult re-election fight for Ossoff in a state Trump won narrowly in 2024, they think the issue will be drowned out by voters’ concerns about the economy, particularly Trump’s handling of it. Even so, it’s an issue for which Democrats lack a consensus about how to respond to GOP broadsides, as prominent members of the party grapple with whether to embrace protecting the transgender community as part of their values, deflect the question, or come out against including transgender athletes in women’s sports.
Ossoff is the only Democratic incumbent defending a seat in a state Trump won last year, making him far-and-away the top target for Senate Republicans. Still, some Republicans admit that Ossoff will be difficult to beat, particularly now that Gov. Brian Kemp decided not to seek the seat.
The early Republican criticism of Ossoff points to the Democratic senator’s vote on legislation in February that would make it a Title IX violation (jeopardizing federal education funding) for states to allow transgender women and girls to participate in female sports. The bill failed to get the 60 votes it needed to advance in the Senate.
One Nation, the nonprofit aligned with Senate Republicans’ main super PAC, has spent at least $400,000 airing an ad reminiscent of a key tagline from one of Trump’s anti-Harris ads from last year: “Man-to-man defense isn’t woke enough for Ossoff, he’s playing for they/them.”
Carter’s opening salvo of ads included a spot touting the congressman’s MAGA credentials while a person purporting to be a transgender woman holds sports trophies and stands in front of a transgender pride flag talking about how Ossoff has been an ally to the community.
Asked about the GOP criticism of that vote, Ossoff campaign communications director Ellie Dougherty told NBC News in a statement that “American parents don’t need federal bureaucrats confirming our children’s genitalia,” a reference to how a state might enforce the mandate in the Republican bill.
Scott Paradise, who managed Republican Herschel Walker’s losing Senate campaign in 2022, told NBC News that Ossoff’s first Senate run in 2020 provided a “perfect storm” that allowed Ossoff to position himself as a “centrist” by narrowing his focus to “bread-and-butter issues.”
“If he’s talking about the economy or he’s talking about moments where he has stood with the right — whether it’s Middle East, to the extent he has on immigration — it’s easier for him to muddy the waters. But this is such a black-and-white issue in a center-right state” that allows Republicans to try to frame him as out of step, Paradise said.
Polling broadly shows the American public doesn’t support transgender women playing in female sports. Last month’s NBC News Stay Tuned Poll, powered by SurveyMonkey found that 75% opposed it and 25% supported it. Other national polling has found similar trends.
That’s one reason why Trump’s campaign focused heavily on the issue in ads, arguing that Harris was outside the mainstream and pointing to her past support for gender-affirming treatments for prison inmates. After the election, Democrats have disagreed over whether the party’s position on transgender rights, particularly in women’s sports, cost them electorally.
Asked about the attacks last month during an interview on “Political Breakfast,” a podcast hosted by Georgia’s public radio affiliate, Ossoff said the big early spending is a signal to him that “demonstrates the national GOP understands the strength that I’ll be bringing to this re-election campaign.”
The Democrat called Republicans, particularly GOP political consultants, “obsessed and preoccupied with this issue.”
Thinking ahead about “top of mind” issues for voters in 2026, Ossoff added, will it be “whether or not federal bureaucrats are investigating the sexual biology of adolescent athletes? I don’t think so,” he added.
Amy Morton, a Democratic strategist in Georgia, elaborated that she believes the midterms will instead be a “referendum on the economy” and Trump’s handling of it, emphasizing the Democratic attacks on the GOP’s broad policy bill that’s working its way through Congress.
“They’re going to continue to lean into that issue because they don’t want to talk about the issues that are really impacting Georgians,” she said, adding, “They made a strategic decision to wrap their arms around Donald Trump so there won’t be a degree of separation between his failure as an executive and their failure.”
A Democratic strategist who worked on Sen. Raphael Warnock’s successful re-election in Georgia in 2022 added that, like their former boss, Ossoff’s high-profile elections have helped to define him in the state, making them skeptical that a GOP attempt to brand him as extreme will stick. They added that while Warnock’s 2022 Republican opponent, Herschel Walker, leaned heavily on social issues during his unsuccessful bid, Kemp won comfortably with a very different message on the same ballot, showing how a campaign can focus on the issues it wants and leave others to the side.
“You saw Brian Kemp run an extremely disciplined race on the economy. You were hard-pressed to get Kemp on the record about abortion in 2022 — the man was laser-focused on small businesses, jobs and the economy. That was the consistent message you heard out of Brian Kemp. You compare that to Herschel Walker and, you can do the math: 300,000 votes,” the Democrat said.
But the economy was also a top issue in the 2024 election, and Trump and the Republican Party still managed to turn their attacks on trans issues into a memorable tagline that stuck with some voters. That’s why one national Republican strategist told NBC News that the attack isn’t a “replacement” for a cogent economic argument, but “part of the equation.”
“It’s an issue that obviously had a massive impact in 2024. The Trump campaign’s ‘Harris is for they/them’ ad is one of the greatest ads of our generation in that it’s so simple and was so effective,” the strategist said.
Ads about transgender participants in women’s sports can run “on top of: Oh, he also voted to help ensure that illegal immigrants get government-paid health care and he voted against the Laken Riley amendment in 2024 before it was convenient,” the strategist added.
While the transgender sports attacks are drawing headlines, both sides have been running ads focused on spending in Washington, too. Democrats have attacked the GOP’s policy bill working its way through Washington, and Republicans hit Ossoff for backing former President Joe Biden’s signature spending bill in 2022.
Tharon Johnson, a Georgia Democratic strategist who worked for Biden’s 2020 campaign in the state, agreed that Republicans are “going to be hard-pressed to make Jon Ossoff into this radical,” in part because of his work both in office and on the campaign trail.
And while he believes the situation Harris found herself in last year isn’t the same one Ossoff finds himself in now, he said Democrats can still draw a lesson from it: “Respond sooner, and more effectively.”
So far, Ossoff’s response has been to stay focused on the economy and try to frame the debate as about local control.
