It was supposed to be a relaxing day full of tacos, swimming and watching people surf. But it nearly ended in tragedy. Noah Mintz was on a trip to Sayulita, Mexico, with an ex-girlfriend, and went for a swim at the beach. The water seemed fine.
As he was heading back to shore, the water just below knee-deep and the ocean to his back, he was knocked down by what was likely a rogue wave.
“I was just lying straight down in the water, face down, unable to move,” said Mintz, 54, of Toronto. “I just thought to myself, ‘This is it. This is the moment. I’m going to die right now.'”
A rogue wave is characterized as one that’s 2.2 times larger than the average wave around it. They can be deadly, and catch people by surprise. They can happen when sea swells collide and merge to create a bigger wave, according to research published by National Geographic.
According to the U.S. National Ocean Service, rogue waves can also be created in a storm, when regular waves move against the typical direction of the current and merge with others to form one large and long-lasting wave.
Though the number of rogue waves is difficult to quantify — no organization tracks them or injuries from them — Mintz is far from the only one to experience their power. One of the largest-ever recorded rogue waves was just off the coast of B.C.
Johannes Gemmrich, who studies these waves, says there needs to be more awareness about what they can do.
Most people imagine a rogue wave as something that might hit a cruise ship or a shipping vessel in the middle of the ocean. But they’re more than that, he says.
“I think most people are not aware of rogue waves, especially not that it also can occur in the coastal area where most people interact with the ocean,” said Gemmrich, an oceanographer at the University of Victoria.
The power of the wave
As Mintz was face down in the water, he recalled key moments from his life, wanting to find the perfect one to focus on as he died.
Fortunately, he didn’t need to. Instead, his ex was able to find him in the water and flip him over. He was then hoisted onto a surfboard and taken to shore, paralyzed but conscious.
“I know not to turn your back to the ocean, but I wasn’t really thinking that,” said Mintz.
His neck was broken in two places, along with some scrapes and cuts. After surgery and a few months of rehabilitation, he was able to make a full recovery, aside from some minor nerve damage on his left side.
He was able to re-emerge relatively unscathed from his experience. But that’s not always the case.
A massive wave slammed Ventura Beach in California last week, sending eight people to hospital. But was it actually a rogue wave? About That producer Lauren Bird breaks down the science of rogue waves and why they’re so unpredictable.
Mary MacNutt, Tassie Notar and another friend were on vacation in Chacala, Mexico, in December 2023. They had just arrived, and MacNutt and Notar, who were 66 and 70 at the time, wanted to go for a swim.
There were some waves, so the pair decided to move down the beach to find a calmer area. But as Notar and MacNutt, both from Toronto, enjoyed the sun and the ocean, a large wave started coming their way.
“This wave was an aberration. This wave was a monster wave,” said Notar, who estimates it was about four metres tall. “It was so high. And we both turned and immediately started swimming to shore.”
They didn’t know what to do. The wave was coming quickly, and they weren’t close enough to shore to make it back.
After the wave hit, Notar couldn’t find her friend. She ran to the beach, screaming for help, but no one moved. Then she turned to see someone administering CPR to MacNutt on the beach.
“We didn’t know then, but she was already a quadriplegic,” said Notar.
Weeks later, she was airlifted to Toronto. She needed support to breathe, and they were told it wasn’t likely she would get better. She asked to be taken off life support, and died on Jan. 7, 2024.
“The whole time she kept reassuring me. She said, ‘I’ve had a really good life. Don’t worry, I’ve had a really good life.'”
What could be done?
Notar wonders what else they could’ve done when they saw the wave, and if there was a way to avoid it.
Gemmrich, the oceanographer, says if it’s far away, he says, you can try to make it to shore. But even that is difficult, because it moves much faster than any swimmer can.
“The best way is to actually dive into it. So wait till it comes close or retreat slowly, but when it comes close, dive into it, because the force reduces with depth there.”
And instead of trying to avoid it, Gemmrich says the answer is early detection.
Early warning system
The study of rogue waves started in the 1990s, when one such wave was measured by a drilling platform with scientific equipment. Before that, they were considered to be tall tales told by sailors.
“Even scientists thought that it’s not possible to have a wave that’s twice as high as the background wave,” said Gemmrich.
Research into rogue waves picked up in the early 2000s. In 2020, what’s considered by some to be the most extreme rogue wave ever recorded measured in at 17.6 metres high, off the coast of Ucluelet, B.C., far above the average six-metre waves around it.
Gemmrich has studied that particular wave. He says a rogue wave tends to happen once every few days, but if it’s small, or if there are no people or boats nearby, no one notices.
And while the risk of that forming at a height and location that would cause danger to people is small, Gemmrich says it’s important people are prepared.
That’s why he’s been developing an early warning system. It can’t predict where and when a rogue wave will form exactly, but it can anticipate when conditions are ripe for one.
It takes the predicted wind patterns for the upcoming few days, along with the physics of ocean waves. It can then predict the generation and evolution of the wave field. He wants it to be implemented into regular forecasts.
“That model is now running as a research model and it will be transferred to Environment and Climate Change [Canada] in the near future for bringing it into the public forecast domain,” said Gemmrich.
Notar wishes there had been better signage when she and MacNutt had gone swimming. She’s still pushing for better signs near the resort where they stayed, specific to rogue waves.
“A rogue wave, to me, I think if people don’t know what it is, it sounds scary. And it’s different than a red flag on a beach,” said Notar.
Mintz learned from the experience. He isn’t afraid of the ocean and is still willing to go for a dip. But he’s a little more cautious at the beach.
“Like dealing with a wild animal, it’s completely unpredictable. And you never turn your back to the ocean until you’re out of it.”
