On Friday, Syria’s central bank announced that a shipment of local currency had arrived from Russia, where the Syrian lira has been printed for years.
The move follows a phone call between Syria’s de facto president Ahmad al-Sharaa and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Wednesday, and may provide a clue about the future relations between the countries.
While the delivery is reportedly part of a contract made before the fall of Bashar al-Assad in December, it could also signal the way Syria’s new rulers will choose to deal with various international political actors while trying to convince western states to lift sanctions imposed on the former government.
Russia was one of Assad’s strongest supporters in the 13-year Syrian civil war, backing him militarily since 2015. Assad and his family were even granted asylum in Moscow after his fall in December.
However, the continued presence of western, particularly American, sanctions on Syria may encourage Russia and other rivals to develop partnerships with the new administration.
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When the rebel offensive first toppled Assad in December, many imagined this might mark a definitive end to Russia’s presence and influence over the country.
However, al-Sharaa, along with his group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), took what seemed to be a more conciliatory approach towards one of their enemy’s key backers.
‘I doubt the Americans are going to lift sanctions on Syria any time soon’
– Jihad Yazigi, economics expert
“We have seen how he has being trying to keep ties with Moscow, to most people’s surprise,” Syrian economic expert Jihad Yazigi told Middle East Eye.
Russia spent decades investing in Syria, and is keen on maintaining control over its bases in the country.
It also maintains strong ties with Arab states in the Gulf and a rocky but important relationship with Turkey, countries that Syria’s government sees as crucial partners in their country’s future.
“Add to that the fact that the Syrian army is originally equipped with Russian weapons,” Yazigi said, noting there are “multiple factors that justify the Syrian authorities keeping good ties with the Russians”.
Sanctions: a complicating factor
While the fall of Assad was welcomed and even celebrated by many western states, they remain largely hesitant when it comes to lifting sanctions that were meant to weaken the ousted president’s grip on power.
Syria’s economy, battered by years of war, was further weakened by these sanctions, which make it nearly impossible for investment and serious reconstruction efforts.
Even Farid al-Madhhan, the famous whistleblower whose documentation of human rights abuses under Assad lead to the US Caesar Act sanctions, called for an end to these policies.
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Some European capitals gave hopeful signs that sanctions might be lifted from their end soon, and this week France even hosted Syria’s foreign minister and held an international conference on supporting the country.
Sharaa was also invited to Paris by President Emmanual Macron, and the visit is expected to take place soon.
Despite this, the same cannot be said about the US. Washington has provided some temporary relief, allowing certain transactions with the Syrian government, including energy sales, but has fallen short of waiving any of the tougher sanctions.
Sebastian Gorka, US director of counter-terrorism, has even questioned Sharaa’s break from his “jihadist” past, wondering if he has truly changed.
“I doubt the Americans are going to lift sanctions on Syria any time soon,” Yazigi said. “I think they might use them as a pressure card on the Syrians.”
Yazigi recalls the case of Sudan, where the US only lifted its “state sponsor of terrorism” designation after it recognised Israel in 2020.
“I do not know if the same conditions will be put on Syria because for Syrians, it will be a lot more complicated to recognise Israel,” he said. “It is politically impossible.”
That is why, according to experts, Syria might be careful to keep its doors open to a variety of stakeholders.
“In Syria, you need to keep this in mind and you need alternative foreign allies, or at least, people you don’t want to antagonize,” Yazigi said.
