In new satellite imagery, Russia’s military appears to be packing up equipment at a key airbase in Syria.
The images show transport aircraft ready to load cargo at the Hmeimim Air Base on Friday.
Russia’s military footprint in Syria fell into uncertainty after rebel forces ousted Bashar Assad.
Russia appears to be packing up military equipment at one of its bases in Syria, new satellite images show. They are the latest indication that Moscow is scaling down, if not withdrawing, its footprint from the country following the stunning collapse of the Assad regime.
Images captured Friday by Maxar Technologies and obtained by Business Insider show two An-124 heavy transport aircraft at Russia’s Hmeimim Air Base. The front of the planes are lifted, indicating that they are ready to load equipment or cargo.
A Russian An-124 heavy transport aircraft, right, preparing to load equipment at Hmeimim on December 13.Satellite image ©2024 Maxar Technologies
A second An-124 heavy transport aircraft preparing to load equipment at Hmeimim on December 13.Satellite image ©2024 Maxar Technologies
In another image of the Hmeimim base, a Russian Ka-52 attack helicopter is seen being taken apart and likely prepared for transport, according to Maxar. The company said elements of an S-400 air-defense unit are also being prepared for departure from the weapon’s previous deployment site near the coastal city of Latakia.
A Ka-52 helicopter, spotted in the center of the image, is seen being disassembled and prepared for transport at Hmeimim on December 13.Satellite image ©2024 Maxar Technologies
Elements of an S-400 unit preparing to depart Hmeimim on December 13.Satellite image ©2024 Maxar Technologies
Additional imagery collected Friday shows Russia’s warships are still missing from its base in Tartus, a port city south of Hmeimim on the Mediterranean Sea. Several frigates, replenishment oilers, and a submarine could be seen at the facility earlier in the month, but they were all gone by Monday.
Some of the vessels have been spotted several miles off the coast. It’s unclear whether the warships will return to Tartus; their presence at sea could be for safety reasons rather than a full evacuation.
An overview of the naval facility at Tartus on December 13.Satellite image ©2024 Maxar Technologies
The US has not confirmed any major Russian military withdrawal from Syria but has pointed out that some forces are, in fact, departing.
“What we’re seeing is a consolidation of assets, including some Russian forces leaving Syria,” Sabrina Singh, the deputy Pentagon spokesperson, told reporters Wednesday. “What they’re doing with their facilities and bases, that’s for them to speak to.”
Analysts, likewise, have called attention to the latest activity.
“A larger number of Russian transport aircraft can now be seen at Khmeimim,” Michael Kofman, a Russia expert and senior fellow with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said in a social media post.
“The S-400 battery is packing up for transport. While tactical aviation is still there, RF appears to be consolidating at Khmeimim and Tartus,” he said. “In short, a withdrawal is under way.”
Even if Russia is moving forces out of its bases in Syria, it may only be a partial military withdrawal and not a complete evacuation.
A Russian frigate in the Mediterranean near Tartus on December 13.Satellite image ©2024 Maxar Technologies
The new satellite imagery comes a day after Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, known as the HUR, said Moscow was evacuating its bases in Syria and has been flying multiple military transport aircraft between Hmeimim and Russia every day.
BI was unable to independently verify Kyiv’s assessment.
Russia’s military presence in Syria became tenuous last weekend as rebel forces captured Damascus and ousted Bashar Assad, the country’s longtime dictator. Assad has since fled to Moscow with his family.
Russia supported Assad in Syria’s civil war for years, in return securing a foothold in the country, but the rebels now have the upper hand. They control the province where Tartus and Hmeimim are located. The Kremlin is engaging in efforts to ensure the security of its facilities with the new Syrian leadership, but it’s unclear if any arrangements are official.
Losing both Tartus and Hmeimim would be a setback for the Kremlin, which relies heavily on the bases to project its power across the region and beyond. Tartus is Russia’s main naval base overseas, providing the country with critical access to a warm-water port. Moscow uses Hmeimim to move military forces in and out of Africa. That makes these bases strategically valuable.
War analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, a US think tank, wrote on Thursday that Russia “is very likely hesitant to completely evacuate all military assets from Syria in the event that it can establish a relationship with Syrian opposition forces and the transitional government and continue to ensure the security of its basing and personnel in Syria.”
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