Large numbers of troops from Rwanda have been pouring across the border into the Democratic Republic of the Congo to help rebels seize the regional capital of Goma before an emergency UN meeting about the crisis takes place on Monday, intelligence officials have warned.
Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) soldiers are believed to have secretly crossed into the eastern DRC over the past few days to assist a lightning offensive by the M23 militia.
Officials speaking to the Observer on condition of anonymity added that the RDF had cranked up the pressure on the embattled Congolese city by amassing vast numbers of troops on the Rwandan side of the border, a few hundred metres from central Goma. Most of the RDF’s most senior commanders are also said to have been deployed in the Rwandan city of Gisenyi, less than a mile across the border from Goma.
“The Rwandan army is lined up at the border, ready to invade,” said a source who has in-depth knowledge of the RDF and is privy to real-time intelligence.
Fierce skirmishes between M23 advance units and the Congolese army were reported on the outskirts of Goma throughout Saturday. Three South African peacekeepers were among those killed attempting to defend the city.
The frontline appears to be moving ever close to Goma’s outskirts, with one source saying the fighting was as close as Nzulo, almost within the city limits, having bypassed the vast refugee camps that hold more than a million people displaced by the fighting.
A major offensive by the Rwandan-backed M23 was, however, foiled overnight, Congolese army sources said.
“Goma’s defences are just about holding out, but they [Rwanda] want to take Goma before the UNSC [UN security council],” said a senior intelligence source, requesting anonymity.
The UN security council, whose responsibility is securing international peace and security, is scheduled to hold an emergency meeting on Monday to discuss the unfolding crisis.
When the M23 captured Goma in 2012, its forces rapidly withdrew when Rwanda came under intense international pressure to stop backing the militia. This time, intelligence sources believe, Rwanda wants to take control of the city before the west can summon an effective response.
Such a move will rely on M23 units imminently breaching Goma’s embattled defences, routing the Congolese army and assuming ownership of the sprawling city of more than a million people on the northern shore of Lake Kivu.
Before the recent influx of Rwandan troops into the DRC, UN experts estimated up to 4,000 RDF personnel were already operating inside the Congo.
Sources also warn that Rwanda will not stop at Goma and is also hoping to seize the city of Bukavu, which lies close to the border at the southern tip of Lake Kivu.
The M23 insurgency in the DRC’s mineral-rich east has intensified this year with rebels rapidly seizing control of more territory. Last week they took control of Minova, a key town along one of Goma’s main supply routes. Two days later, they captured Sake, a town 12 miles from Goma and previously the army’s main defensive position against the M23. The developments threaten the supply of food and basic supplies into Goma.
Speaking on Saturday to the Observer, Clémentine de Montjoye of Human Rights Watch said: “The situation in Goma is extremely dire – today we are hearing reports of ongoing fighting on the two axes north and west of the city, as well as water and power shortages in the city.
“Given the huge number of civilians currently seeking shelter in Goma, it is vital that pressure be mounted on all parties to protect civilians and civilian infrastructure such as hospitals, and allow access to vital humanitarian aid.”
Many analysts are critical of the west’s response to the unfolding crisis, particularly its failure to rein in Rwanda’s president and the head of the RDF, Paul Kagame. In particular, the UK, US and France – three of the five permanent members of the UN security council – are accused by critics of being too close to Kagame.
In a statement on Saturday, the EU said: “Rwanda must cease its support for the M23 and withdraw.”
The Rwandan government – which says it does not back the M23 – had not responded by the time of publication.
