(Bloomberg) — Soybean and corn plants hit by a drought on the Argentine Pampas are in worse shape than public forecasts say, according to an analysis of satellite imagery.
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Mickael Attia, a crop analyst with EarthDaily Analytics, sees the soy harvest shrinking to 45 million metric tons. That’s well below the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange’s estimate of 49.6 million tons and other popular forecasts tracked by traders at the Rosario Board of Trade and the US Department of Agriculture.
While those prognosticators rely mainly on farmer surveys, EarthDaily interprets satellite images, converting them into a “vegetation index” that maps crop conditions. The Vancouver-based firm is also predicting 42 million tons for Argentina’s corn harvest, compared with 49 million at the Buenos Aires exchange.
“Crop vigor is already poor in half of the country,” Attia said in an email. “The rest is holding on, but for how long? February and March weather will be key.”
Attia said that rains due to fall over the next few days will probably be light, and he compared the progress of the 2025 season to 2018, a drought year that frazzled crops.
Argentina’s soy is mainly collected in the second quarter and is then processed by trading houses, making it the world’s No. 1 supplier of soy meal and soy oil. It is No. 3 in corn, with two crops that stretch out fieldwork from March to August.
Farmers are expected to trade the harvests quickly to take advantage of temporary cuts to export taxes — until June — a policy implemented by President Javier Milei to quickly beef up central bank dollar reserves.
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