Study: In 2040, UK Won’t Have Snow Anymore

Dec 07, 2020 05:52 PM EST

Many areas in the United Kingdom may not experience snow anymore due to climate change, according to an analysis of the Met Office. 

This is part of the future projections concerning climate change in the UK, suggesting that by the decade of the 2040s, the majority of south England may no longer get sub-zero temperatures.

In addition, by the decade of the 2060s, only north Scotland and high areas will likely experience cold days.

Met Office projections

The analysis is based on accelerating carbon emissions, according to Met Office senior scientist Dr. Lizzie Kendon, who studied the climate change projections. She says that at the end of this century, a lot of the snow will have entirely vanished, except those at the highest altitudes.

These changes will decrease in intensity and severity if carbon emissions are significantly reduced worldwide, according to the Met Office.

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Rising temperatures

In the UK, the average low temperature is currently pegged at -4.3 degrees Celsius in the last 30 years.

If the acceleration of the emissions continues, a worldwide temperature of 4 degrees Celsius is possible, which will make the average coldest day in winter in the UK above the freezing point, which is 0 degrees. This will be true in most parts of the country.

If the emissions are dramatically reduced, and the level of temperatures all over the world will rise by an average of 2 degrees, then UK’s average coldest temperature will likely settle at 0 degrees.

A warmer future

According to the Met Office and Dr. Kendon, these levels could still vary, but the overall projection involves wetter and warmer winters as well as drier and hotter summers.

Kendon adds that within this condition, there will be more extreme and frequent weather events, which will result in heavier rainfall.

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Present changes being seen

According to the Met Office, even now there are already dramatic changes. According to the Met Office National Climate Information Centre’s Dr. Mark McCarthy, their nature and rate are unprecedented.

There are already average temperatures rising by 1 degree from Industrial Revolution levels, and there will be further increases, McCarthy says. Such an increase will significantly impact many animals and plants.

Altered winters and summers

According to the Met Office, significant rises in temperature in the coming decades will impact winters and summers. UK’s southern parts will be warmer.

Extreme weather events are also expected to be more intense and frequent. In addition, heatwaves will most probably last longer and be more common.

Even if the coming summers will not be higher than the last, the trend, in the long run, will be a steady increase, especially if carbon emissions are not halted.

The peak temperatures in summer may rise from 3.7 to 6.8 degrees Celsius by the decade of the 2070s, in comparison with the years 1981 up to 2000.

Even if we effectively reduce emissions, the rises in temperatures will still occur, but they will be significantly smaller. The rise in warming will not become as severe.

Rainfall

There will be less rain during the summer, but if they occur, they will be significantly more intense. There will long periods of dryness and sudden instances of heavy rainfall.

This will increase the possibility of flooding since the dry ground is not capable of absorbing as much water as damp or wet ground. Rain will also increase during the winter.

All of these changes in rainfall, snow, and the seasons are to be expected in the UK in the coming future if climate change is not abated.

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