Pre-October 7th research identifies specific areas where compromise remains possible
Even amid the current devastation in Gaza and Israel, new research suggests there may be more common ground between Israelis and Palestinians than conventional wisdom suggests. A comprehensive study conducted in 2022 found dozens of potential peace agreement configurations that both sides preferred over the status quo.
The research, published in PNAS Nexus on January 21, 2025, analyzed survey data from nearly 1,900 Israeli and Palestinian respondents to identify specific components of potential peace deals that could gain support from both populations.
The study found that out of 256 possible peace agreement configurations, 55 were rated as preferable to current conditions by both sides. Most notably, the research showed that practical changes affecting daily life – such as freedom of movement, access to holy sites, and prisoner releases – garnered more support than traditional political solutions like territorial adjustments.
The study revealed stark differences in how each population views current conditions. Among Palestinians, 95% preferred at least one proposed peace deal over the status quo, with 41% ranking current conditions as their least preferred option. Israeli opinions were more divided, with 75% favoring some form of change while 25% preferred current arrangements.
Demographics played a significant role in shaping preferences. Among Israelis who preferred maintaining current conditions, the majority were younger Jewish males with a median age of 37.5 years. Those most eager for change tended to be older (median age 44), predominantly female, and included a higher proportion of Arab Israelis.
The research also examined how exposure to violence affects willingness to compromise. Israelis who had personally experienced conflict-related violence, or knew someone who had, showed significantly less flexibility on certain issues, particularly regarding settlements and Jerusalem’s status. This finding has particular relevance given recent events.
Regional differences among Palestinians were also notable. Despite experiencing higher levels of conflict historically, Gaza residents showed more openness to certain compromises compared to West Bank residents, though the researchers note this may be influenced by other socioeconomic factors beyond violence exposure.
Gender emerged as another significant factor. The data showed women on both sides, but particularly Israeli women, demonstrated more openness to compromise than men. Age also played a role, with older respondents generally showing more flexibility than younger ones.
While the researchers acknowledge that positions may have shifted significantly since October 7th, they suggest the components identified as most promising – including mutual access to religious sites, prisoner releases, mutual recognition between states, and freedom of movement – likely remain relevant to future negotiations.
The study’s timing, conducted before the recent escalation of violence, provides a unique baseline for understanding how both populations viewed potential peace arrangements during a relatively stable period. This could offer valuable insights for future peace-building efforts once current hostilities end.
The research represents one of the most detailed analyses to date of specific peace agreement components that could potentially bridge the divide between Israeli and Palestinian positions, even as immediate prospects for peace appear distant.
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