Despite growing concerns around global trade dynamics and U.S.-imposed global tariffs, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is expected to maintain a robust growth trajectory in its solar PV sector, according to Sohan Gwalani, Research Analyst, MEA Power & Renewables at Wood Mackenzie.
Speaking on the sidelines of the Intersolar & ees (electrical energy storage) Middle East Conference in Dubai, Gwalani offered a detailed look at how tariffs and supply chain disruptions are shaping — but not necessarily slowing — the region’s clean energy transformation.
Strategic partnerships shield the region
“The Middle East and North Africa market wants to try and be resilient. They want to try and be energy independent,” said Gwalani. “And they not only want to be able to deliver that power, but also have all the components made in their own countries itself.”
While U.S. tariffs on Chinese solar imports have triggered shifts in manufacturing bases globally, Gwalani noted that they are also catalysing strategic partnerships between Chinese manufacturers and countries in North Africa.
“We’ve seen some preferential agreements with Chinese manufacturers that are moving to North Africa, for instance, EliTe Solar with Egypt,” he said.
Last year Singapore-headquartered EliTe Solar broke ground on a 5GW solar manufacturing hub in Egypt as part of its global strategic expansion plans.
Rather than being deterred by tariffs, regional players are doubling down on localising supply chains and forming long-term alliances. “Instead of focusing on the tariffs with the U.S., they’re more focused on their strategic partnerships with Chinese companies,” he added.
Supply chain localisation as a resilience strategy
Addressing broader supply chain concerns, Gwalani pointed to geopolitical tensions and logistical bottlenecks — particularly in the Red Sea — as short-term issues that the region is already adapting to.
The long-term strategy, he said, is focused on localisation: “Again, it’s linked back to building up that local capacity. Supply chain is also linked to logistical issues with shipping.”
According to Gwalani, MENA’s solar module production capacity could hit 42 gigawatts (GW) — based on announced plans — though he advised caution, factoring in potential delays and cancellations.
“If you factor in for 20 percent cancellations and another 20 percent of the projects delayed, you will still see a remarkable scale up for where we are — around 1 GW of modules now — to say even 20 GW.”
From net importer to exporter
The expected build-out in manufacturing capacity means the region could not only meet its own solar demand but also become a net exporter of panels. “That should satisfy the entire local demand of panels with even moving to a surplus,” he said.
Gwalani further confirmed that Wood Mackenzie forecasts 100 GW of solar PV DC capacity in the MENA region by 2029 — translating to around 77 GW of AC power once converted for grid use.
This base-case projection is updated quarterly using a bottom-up approach. “We build the forecast market by market, and we add it all together,” said Gwalani.
Policy incentives key to financing mega projects
While capital costs remain high for solar projects, Gwalani highlighted that Gulf countries such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar have taken proactive steps to create attractive conditions for developers. These include financial benefits, low interest rates, and free land for projects.
These incentives have led to record-low tariffs in the range of 13 to 15 USD/MWh, often even below the Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE).
However, Gwalani noted that these headlines often obscure the full picture. While the government announces it is securing solar power for $13, the actual payments to the developer are likely to start at $13 in the first year, increase to $15 the next year, and rise further to $17 later on, revealing a more complex financial arrangement than the headline suggests, he explained.
Ultimately, these pricing strategies reflect long-term government thinking. “Even if your return on a project now is minimal, you’re doing it for the long run,” he said. “To get these government contracts is not easy. Once you set up with them, they give you favourable financing.”
UAE and Saudi lead, but with different styles
Among MENA nations, the UAE and Qatar are on track to meet their 2030 renewable energy targets, with the UAE adopting a steady and measured strategy.
“They just want to start building up. They want to build up the solar in line with population demand, in line with power demand,” said Gwalani.
Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, is focused on rapid scale-up. “Saudi now is all about how quickly we can ramp up.”
Gwalani also pointed to major developments in energy storage, particularly in Saudi Arabia. “Saudi will be the third biggest energy storage market globally in terms of how much they will build [over the next ten years],” he said. “But if you look at solar PV, they’ll be number eight in the world.”
This divergence highlights Saudi Arabia’s forward-looking approach to grid stability and hybrid project development, as the country invests in both standalone and integrated storage projects to complement its solar buildout.
(Reporting by Rajiv Pillai; Editing by Anoop Menon)
(anoop.menon@lseg.com)
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