The Grand Slam stage is where tennis legends are made … and where savvy bettors can find unique opportunities. Betting on tennis majors requires strategy, discipline and a keen eye for value. Whether you’re chasing the thrill of an underdog story or riding the coattails of a dominant favorite, these tips will help you navigate the 2025 Australian Open and other major tournaments with confidence.
Four types of wagers to make
There’s more to betting on tennis than picking the eventual tournament winner. Here are four kinds of bets we recommend investigating to find which ones best suit your wagering style and risk tolerance.
1. Early-round two-favorites parlays
Strategically combining two favorites in a parlay is an effective way to reduce juice and create more favorable odds. This involves pairing a strong favorite (e.g., -350) with a slightly riskier favorite (e.g., -200) to balance the odds to somewhere near even, such as -105. By doing so, you essentially “pay” -105 for the higher-risk -200 play while incorporating the security of the strong -350 favorite. Limiting parlays to two players and including one high-confidence pick ensures balance. This strategy works well in early major rounds when top seeds typically face lower-ranked opponents.
2. Set spreads
In men’s Grand Slam tournaments, set spreads often provide better value than game totals or game spreads because of the best-of-five format. This longer format introduces more variance and comeback opportunities, making set spreads a strategic choice for optimizing returns. Backing a strong player at -1.5 sets, for example, typically offers better odds than a money-line bet while still maintaining a strong likelihood of success
Set spreads account for the dominance of elite players without requiring a complete sweep of the match. A favorite might win in four sets, covering a -1.5 spread, even if one set is tightly contested, which might not meet game spread requirements. This is particularly useful when favorites unexpectedly lose focus in a set or face resilient opponents.
For bettors confident in a player to dominate in straight sets, a -1.5 set spread offers an efficient option with extra legroom, especially when parlayed with another set spread or a money-line favorite. When betting set spreads, evaluate factors such as five-set match history, endurance and dominance on key points. The ATP Tour site’s player profiles offer a lot of this kind of information. Players with strong serves and aggressive returns often excel at covering spreads, making this approach a valuable way to leverage the Grand Slam format for better odds than traditional game or money-line bets.
3. “Will Win Quarter” wagers
Betting on a player to win their quarter of the draw is a smart alternative to outright tournament winner bets. This approach carries lower risk while allowing you to capitalize on favorable draw sections and specific matchups. It also provides the flexibility to back multiple players in different quarters, diversifying your wagers. To make informed bets, consider key factors such as recent form, head-to-head records and surface preferences, as these can significantly impact a player’s performance within their section of the draw.
4. “Make Final” bets
With the decline of the big three of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, the playing field has become more level, making it a prudent strategy to bet on a player to reach the final rather than win the tournament. This approach allows you to benefit from a player’s strong performance even if they fall short in the final. It also provides opportunities to hedge your bets more effectively as the tournament progresses and capitalize on undervalued players with a proven history of deep runs in major events.
Three tips when wagering on tennis
Information is everything when deciding to place a wager. Here’s how to make sure your bets are as informed as possible.
1. Watch the matches: See beyond the stats
Unlike many other sports, such as golf or football, where box scores and stats often provide a clear understanding of what transpired, tennis requires a more nuanced approach. For wagering, simply analyzing data doesn’t always tell the full story. Watching matches gives you valuable insights into player dynamics, court surface behavior, weather conditions and even time-of-day effects — such as the position of the sun and the shadows it casts — that can impact performance. The best-of-five format adds another layer, where momentum shifts and endurance play crucial roles.
By watching the matches and listening to commentary, you can pick up on subtle factors such as a player’s body language, injury concerns or tactical adjustments — elements that are rarely captured on a stats page. Understanding how different playing styles interact and how players adapt midmatch is essential to making informed bets. This approach allows you to gain information you wouldn’t otherwise access, giving you an edge in identifying value or spotting potential upsets. Tennis is a sport where the story unfolds point by point, and watching it live provides context that no numbers can fully convey.
2. Avoid betting the early round
Refraining from heavy betting in the early rounds can be a smart strategy. Instead, use this phase to observe playing conditions and how they impact different players. You’ll want to assess players’ match readiness and fitness levels, and identify any signs of fatigue or injury concerns. By gathering this information early, you can make more informed and strategic decisions in the later rounds, when the field has narrowed and player form is more evident.
3. Be selective and focus on high-conviction plays
With the daily slate of matches offering plenty of options, it’s essential to maintain discipline and prioritize quality over quantity. Focus on matches for which you have strong insights or an edge, situations where odds appear mispriced based on your analysis, and opportunities that align with your overall betting strategy. By being selective and concentrating on high-conviction plays, you can improve bankroll management and enhance your chances of achieving long-term profitability.
Successful tennis betting requires patience, discipline and continuous learning. By implementing these strategies and adapting them to your own analysis and risk tolerance, you can enhance your chances of success when betting on tennis majors.
