Tesla stock has been on a relentless path lower following a series of disconcerting sales data out of Europe and China.
Demand for Tesla cars has weakened substantially worldwide following Elon Musk’s high-profile role in the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, an organization within the executive branch tasked with reducing government spending.
Related: Surprising China news sends Tesla’s stock reeling
The outspoken Musk has drawn equal praise and blame for his mercurial nature. He’s seen by proponents as a trailblazing entrepreneur who has single-handedly catapulted electric vehicles in the mainstream. To his detractors, he’s a person with a string of failed promises on new car launches and autonomous driving with erratic behavior.
So far, Musk’s detractors have the upper hand this year, given Tesla’s sales decline has taken a sledgehammer to its stock price.
Yet, hope spring eternal, and long-term holders may take solace in the latest comments from one Tesla stock analyst, especially given shares surged 23% on April 9.
Tesla stock takes a beating amid sliding sales
Tesla’s (TSLA) success stems from Elon Musk’s early decision to concentrate his efforts on building high-performance electric vehicles, rather than vehicles that delivered high gas mileage alone.
The decision to take aim at Mercedes, BMW, and Porsche paid off, turning Tesla’s into aspirational vehicles sought after by rich, famous, and performance oriented drivers, catching rivals like Ford and General Motors off guard.
Related: Elon Musk gets more bad China news
It was a winning recipe, however, Tesla’s moat isn’t nearly as wide nowadays.
Most global car companies, including Detroit’s big three, offer EVs with similar performance and better fit-and-finish than Tesla. And Musk’s recent fall-from-grace among core buyers has done little to protect its global market share.
Tesla sales volume fell 49% year-over-year in China in February, according to the China Passenger Car Association. Tesla only sold 30,688 new energy vehicles (NEVs) there in the month, the least in over two years. For perspective, Chinese EV rival BYD sold 318,233 vehicles that month.
It hasn’t been any better in Europe. The French industry association Plateforme Automobile said on April 1 that Tesla vehicle registrations dropped to 3,157 in March, a 37% decline. That’s disappointing given total EV registrations in France only dipped 15%, and France is Tesla’s second largest market in Europe.
It’s been similarly dismal for Musk in Germany, where the German Federal Motor Transport Authority said Tesla sales tumbled 76% in February to 1,429 cars, despite EV registrations rising 31% overall.
The U.S. has also seen a drop-off in demand for Tesla cars. In 2024, Tesla sales in America fell by 1%, the first annual decline in more than a decade. In Q4, Tesla units sold only inched up 2.3%, but total EV sales rose by 15%, according to the Cox/KBB quarterly EV sales report.
That’s a poor showing relative to Ford, which saw EV sales rise 16%, and General Motors, which saw better than 100% EV sales growth at Cadillac, GMC, and Chevrolet.
In Q1, it didn’t get better. Tesla reported its worst quarter for deliveries since 2022, delivering only 336k vehicles, far south of consensus Wall Street estimates for 377k vehicles.
Tesla gets lifeline, shares surge on hopes for tariff truce
Tesla stock has lost about one-third of its value in 2025, but analysts at Benchmark remain bullish.
On April 9, Benchmark analyst Mickey Legg called the recent sell-off in Tesla shares “overblown,” saying that while sales declines are a problem, there are catalysts looming that could spark interest in shares again.
Related: Top analyst revisits Tesla stock price target as Q1 earnings loom
Specifically, Benchmark thinks that Tesla will reveal a new model in the second quarter, potentially reinvigorating interest in the brand. As a result, it listed Tesla among on its “Best Ideas” list.
It also says that it’s “cautiously optimistic about the rollout of Tesla operated robotaxis as a paid service in Austin, Texas, scheduled for June.” It remarked that the launch in Austin could be the first of additional launches in other cities. Furthermore, Benchmark notes potential demand for Tesla’s Optimus robots, enabling Tesla to tap the potentially high-growth market for industrial automation.
The optimism didn’t necessarily translate into a higher stock price target, though. Benchmark lowered its price target to $350 from $475.
Nevertheless, the outlook is encouraging, particularly following optimistic news on the ongoing trade war.
More Tesla:
- Top analyst revisits Tesla stock price target as Q1 earnings loom
- Key Tesla investor makes blunt prediction for the company’s future
- Tesla stock mega bull issues shocking price target
Tesla stock has slid on fears that a prolonged battle would further derail demand for its vehicles overseas, particularly given Musk’s high-profile role in Trump’s government.
However, investors covered shorts and bid Tesla’s stock higher following word that President Trump is delaying previously planned reciprocal tariffs for 90 days for key countries, including the European Union, which was facing a 20% tariff. Instead, a 10% baseline tariff will be enacted.
Optimism that trade tensions may ease, shifting the focus back to catalysts like those mentioned by Benchmark sent Tesla’s shares soaring on Wednesday. Whether gains continue will likely depend a lot on what Musk does next, and whether trade talks over the next 90 days are successful
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